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          Win the Weekend: Fantasy and betting tips for NFL Week 15, early bowl games

          Dak Prescott has led Dallas to five straight dominant wins, but the Cowboys are underdogs at Buffalo. Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire
          • ESPN.com Staff
          Dec 15, 2023, 03:50 PM

          Want to know the latest trends, matchups and injury news in football? We've got you. Want to know where the public has money this week? We've got you. Want to know which teams to play, whom to roster in DFS or whom to pick in your Eliminator pool? We've got you there, too. Here's everything you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football matchups and potential bets on the games this weekend.

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          CFB: Action Report | Analytics Edges | Confidence pool picks

          NFL: Injury update | Matchups to exploit | Eliminator Challenge | Analytics Edges | Action Report | Confidence pool picks | Pigskin Pick'em

          Sports Betting home | Fantasy Football home

          College Football

          David Purdum's Action Report

          • Bettors should pay attention to the weather forecast for Saturday's Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl between the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks and Appalachian State Mountaineers in Orlando. As of Thursday, the forecast was calling for a 100% chance of rain with 16 mph winds. The total opened as high as 48.5 but was down to 43 on Thursday. The point spread on the game also has been on the move, with Appalachian State going from a 3.5-point favorite to 6.5-point favorite.

          • The line on Saturday's LA Bowl between the Boise State Broncos and favored UCLA Bruins has ticked up toward the Bruins, despite key players skipping the game. UCLA opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook. The line was up to -4.5 as of Thursday. Highly-touted freshman quarterback Dante Moore has reportedly entered the transfer portal, and Bruins defensive lineman Laiatu Latu, the Pac-12 defensive player of the year, will miss the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. Boise State will be breaking in a new quarterback, after starter Taylen Green announced that he would transferring to Arkansas. Freshman quarterback CJ Tiller is expected to start for the Broncos.

          • The early action on the Rose Bowl between the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 1 Michigan Wolverines continues to be lopsided in favorite of the underdog Tide. Alabama remained a consensus 1.5-point underdog to the Wolverines this week. On Thursday, DraftKings was reporting that 84% of the money that had been wagered on the point spread was on the Crimson Tide.

          Seth Walder's biggest edges from ESPN Analytics

          • Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+2.5) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs: Old Dominion QB Austin Reed has posted a solid 62 QBR this season (which, coincidentally, also ranks 62nd). And it is on offense where the Hilltoppers have the major edge; they rank 76th in offensive FPI to Old Dominion at 120. FPI makes Western Kentucky 3.5-point favorites in the Famous Toastery Bowl.

          Joe Fortenbaugh's Confidence picks

          • Georgia Southern Eagles -3.5 over Ohio Bobcats: The Ohio roster was annihilated by the transfer portal. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke is leaving and his backup was already out of action. Additionally, the Bobcats lost their top wide receiver, top two running backs and top linebacker to the portal as well. Happy to lay the 3.5 in this spot at the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

          • New Mexico State Aggies -3.5 over Fresno State Bulldogs: Two teams headed in very different directions. Jerry Kill's Aggies won eight of their final nine games en route to a 10-4 record. Meanwhile, Fresno State dropped each of its final three games to close out the season heading into the Isleta New Mexico Bowl and will be without head coach Jeff Tedford, who is stepping away from the program due to health concerns. The Bulldogs lack motivation, which is one of the primary handicapping factors to consider this time of year.

          • Jacksonville State Gamecocks -2.5 over Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: When discussing the motivation angle, good luck finding a bowl team with more motivation than Jacksonville State, which went 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in its first season at the FBS level. But because of some goofy rule, the Gamecocks weren't sure they would even be allowed to play in a bowl game this season. I'll spare you the details and leave you with this: Jacksonville State got in and they're extremely excited to be playing in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.

          NFL

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          3:21
          Cubelic, Harper don't hold back about Tide vs. Michigan

          Read & React's Cole Cubelic delves out his honest opinion on Bama's semifinal matchup while Roman Harper adds that the Rose Bowl is all about "bragging rights."

          Stephania Bell's injury update.

          • Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson was on the field for just 13 offensive snaps last Sunday in his return from a Week 5 hamstring injury before he sustained a chest injury that forced him out of the game and sent him to a local hospital for a precautionary evaluation. On Wednesday, Jefferson told reporters the concern was for potential internal bleeding and broken ribs. He was cleared to return home with his teammates after being diagnosed with what he called an "inner bruise." On Tuesday, he was listed as a limited participant on the team's estimated practice report, and he repeated the effort Wednesday. The Vikings play Saturday, and, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert, Jefferson -- who noted his hamstring felt "perfect" during the brief time he was on the field last Sunday -- expects to play his normal role.

          • Get all the latest injury news here.

          Matt Bowen's matchups to exploit

          • Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett vs. Chicago Bears LT Braxton Jones: Garrett has logged 13 sacks and 37 pressures this season, with a pass rush win rate of 29.2% that ranks second in the league. There's a matchup advantage here for Garrett to win on the edge and disrupt quarterback Justin Fields in the pocket.

          • Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford vs. the Washington Commanders defense: Stafford, who has thrown 10 total touchdown passes over his last three starts, is playing his best football of the season right now. He's dialed in. And he gets another positive matchup this weekend versus the Commanders defense, a unit allowing a league-worst 30.4 points and 266.6 passing yards per game. Look for Stafford to attack all three levels of the field in this one.

          • For more breakdowns, check out Matt Bowen's Film Room.

          Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge advice

          Seth Walder's biggest edges from ESPN Analytics

          • Cincinnati Bengals LB Germaine Pratt over 6.5 tackles + assists (-115): This is a nice, low tackle line for a starting linebacker, and I can't imagine the Vikings will want to rely on quarterback Nick Mullens too much. My tackle model is way over here and forecasts 8.3 tackles + assists for Pratt.

          • Dallas Cowboys LB Micah Parsons under 0.5 sacks (+135): This bet isn't for the faint of heart, but I show value on Parsons' under, with my model pricing it at +101. The key factor: Josh Allen has just a 3.4% sack rate, just a shade behind league leader Patrick Mahomes (3.3%). Quarterbacks play a huge role in sack rates, and that's driving the projection here.

          David Purdum's Action Report

          • The Buffalo Bills were consensus 2-point favorites over the visiting Cowboys in the weekend's marquee game. FanDuel reported Thursday that the Cowboys-Bills game was setting up to the one most popular with bettors of the season. "We are in another unusual position where a Cowboys cover would actually be a big win for the book, as an ever-growing liability continues to come in on the Bills," a FanDuel representative said in a company release. Sportsbook PointsBet also has reported a surge of betting interest on the Bills to win the Super Bowl. Since Nov. 27, the Bills had attracted more bets and more money in PointsBet's odds to win the Super Bowl than any other team.

          • With rain and wind in the forecast, the total on the New York Jets-Miami Dolphins game was down to 37.5 as of Thursday. The total opened at 40.5. At 37.5, it would be the lowest total on a Dolphins game this season. Forecasts were calling rain with winds of 22 mph on Sunday in Miami.

          • Games that attracted early lopsided action: 93% of the spread money was on the Los Angeles Rams against the Commanders as of Thursday on FanDuel; 88% of the spread money was on the Atlanta Falcons against the Carolina Panthers as of Thursday at DraftKings.

          • FanDuel also reported early betting interest on the Philadelphia Eagles, who were 4-point road favorites over the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. "We need the Eagles' late-season slide to continue, as the early money has all come in on Philadelphia, and a Seahawks cover would be a big win for the sportsbook," the FanDuel rep added.

          Anita Marks' NFL confidence pool pick

          • Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Packers are good at home, and the Bucs are very beat up. Not to mention it will be the Bucs' sixth road game in eight weeks. Jordan Love should have a good performance against Tampa Bay's 29th-ranked pass defense.

          Tyler Fulghum's Pigskin Pick'em plays

          What a wild ending to Week 14 with the Monday Night upsets in Miami and the Meadowlands. This is why we love the NFL. I'm gonna take lots of chalk this week. What could possibly go wrong? Good luck in Week 15 of Pigskin Pick'em!