What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 15? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Dallas at Buffalo (-2, 50.5) is the biggest game of the weekend, with the Cowboys winners of seven of eight games and the Bills coming off the big win over the rival Chiefs. How are you betting this one?
Fulghum: I think this is a great spot to sell high on the Cowboys and take the Bills -2. We have to give context to the Cowboys season. Yes, they've been wildly impressive at home and against weak competition. Yes, they hammered the Eagles on national television in Week 14. The Eagles were in a spot to be taken advantage of, however. That completed a five-game stretch vs. DAL, @ KC, vs. BUF (OT), vs. SF, @ DAL. The last two games in the stretch were played with San Francisco and Dallas owning a rest advantage. Dallas is good, but they still haven't proven they can beat a great team when the circumstances are not in their favor. Win this game in convincing fashion and I will change my tune.
Moody: I'm backing the Cowboys +2 here. In a pivotal NFC East game, Dallas defeated the Eagles in primetime on Sunday Night Football. Over the last five games, the Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread. The Bills are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games and have been very inconsistent this season. Although the Cowboys have plenty of talent on both sides of the football, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention their 3-3 against the spread on the road record this season. Considering Orchard is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, this is a must-win game for the Cowboys if they want to be taken seriously as Super Bowl contenders. I believe they'll rise to the occasion.
Schatz: I'm also going with Cowboys +2 because they've simply been the better team over the course of the year, and particularly in recent weeks. Not by a lot, but by enough that it makes sense to take them if you're getting points. The Cowboys are third in weighted DVOA, which gives more strength to recent games. Buffalo ranks sixth. And are you worried about the Cowboys in bad weather? Well, there is some wind and rain expected in Buffalo, but it isn't like the Bills have played great in bad weather recently either. Frankly, these are both indoor teams. It's just that only one of them actually gets to play its home games indoors.
Walder: Before I saw the number I'd have guessed I would be siding with the Bills. They're underrated by most people because of their record, but the market isn't underrating them at all, in fact. The offensive quality of these two teams is similar, but on defense the Cowboys pull way ahead after Buffalo suffered key injuries to players like Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones earlier this year. Even with defense mattering less than offense, it still matters. So give me Cowboys +2 as well.
There are a lot of backup quarterbacks getting the start this week. Is there a specific situation that bodes especially well for bettors?
Fulghum: If C.J. Stroud is unable to go for the Texans this week, it seems like a great spot for the Titans -2.5 at home. Not only would Houston be relying on Davis Mills, but WR Tank Dell (knee) is done for the year and WR Nico Collins (calf) is listed questionable. In this scenario, Mike Vrabel could comfortably lean on Derrick Henry as a home favorite against an under-manned offense and win a low-scoring game by at least a field goal.
Schatz: I am playing against the current narrative of Tommy Cutlets and the hot New York Giants to go with the New Orleans Saints -6 at home. The Saints are 21st in weighted DVOA, but the Giants are 31st. Was Tommy DeVito good against the Packers? Sure, but lots of backups have a good game or two early on. The expectations still need to be that those players will not be good in the long run, and the Saints have a fine defense.
What's your favorite futures team bet as we enter Week 15?
Fulghum: Whether they make the playoffs or not, I like my Los Angeles Rams OVER 8.5 wins (+180) to finish the season. The Rams are clearly much better than their 6-7 record. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are orchestrating a fun and inspiring offense. This team has hung in there with Baltimore, San Francisco and Dallas. Looking at their remaining schedule, they should be favored in each of their next three games: vs. WAS, vs. NO, @ NYG. Take care of those and you've got 9 wins. Even if they don't, it's possible they're matched up in Week 18 against a San Francisco team that has already secured the #1 seed in the NFC and has no need to risk injury.
Schatz: I'm still driving the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon and going with Baltimore to win the AFC at +200. Yes, the Ravens are the favorites, but they are so far ahead of the rest of the conference in DVOA. They have the inside track to the No. 1 seed and my simulations have them winning the AFC almost half the time. The weakest part of the team, the passing game, is up to ninth in the league in DVOA now. That's the weakest part! I wouldn't bet on them to win the Super Bowl because the 49ers look like such a juggernaut, but they have a very strong chance to come out of the AFC.
What's your favorite prop bet this weekend?
Fulghum: David Montgomery OVER 65.5 rush yds (-115). Montgomery and the Lions return home after the upset loss in Chicago last week and have a good setup for the RBs to produce. Detroit is a 4.5-point favorite and the Broncos rank dead last in the league allowing 5.1 yards per rush. Montgomery has played four games at Ford Field this season and has eclipsed this threshold in all four averaging 80.8 yards per contest.
Moody: T.J. Hockenson OVER 52.5 receiving yards. He's surpassed this line in six of his last of seven games. In five of those games, Hockenson had eight or more targets. With Justin Jefferson expected to return and Nick Mullens under center instead of Joshua Dobbs, bettors can still feel confident in the young tight end. During his tenure with the San Francisco 49ers, Mullens had a lot of success with tight end George Kittle. Kittle averaged 100.1 receiving yards per game in those games. This season, the Bengals defense have allowed 72.0 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the most in the league.
Schatz: T.J. Hockenson OVER 52.5 receiving yards. Everything that Eric said, plus the Bengals rank dead last in DVOA when covering tight ends.
Walder: Germaine Pratt OVER 6.5 tackles + assists (-115). This is a nice, low tackle line for a starting linebacker and I can't imagine the Vikings will want to rely on Nick Mullens too much. My tackle model is way over here, and forecasts 8.3 tackles + assists for Pratt.
Is there anything else you're playing Sunday?
Fulghum: There are three large underdogs with a significant rest advantage that I like plus the points in Week 15. They're definitely not comfortable plays, but I am going to lean into the rest advantage being more valuable and impactful to the final score of a game the deeper we get into the season. Commanders +6.5 @ Rams, Patriots +7.5 vs. Chiefs, Cardinals +12 vs. 49ers are all plays I'm willing to make or include in a parlay this week.
Schatz: I do not believe in Zach Wilson's good game from last week carrying over to future performance, especially since the Miami Dolphins defense has improved in recent weeks and now ranks eighth in weighted defensive DVOA. Miami's defensive weakness, oddly enough, is second downs - where the Jets are the worst offense in the league. I think the Dolphins wrap it up early and coast to a victory, so give me Dolphins -8.5 at home on Sunday.
Moody: Matthew Stafford OVER 266.5 passing yards. In two consecutive games, he exceeded this line against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens stout defenses. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as Stafford's top two receivers, he's in a great spot against the Commanders defense. Stafford has played very well since the Rams' Week 11 bye. In that time frame, he has the sixth highest quarterback rating, as well as 16 passes of 20 or more yards, which was the fourth highest.
Moody: Zay Flowers OVER 56.5 receiving yards. In suboptimal weather conditions, he caught six of 10 targets for 60 receiving yards and a touchdown last week against the Rams. During the nine games where Flowers has been targeted six or more times, he has averaged 55.7 yards receiving per game. In the last three games, no defense has allowed more passing yards per game than the Jaguars (301.0).
Moody: Cooper Kupp to score a touchdown. Over the last two games, he has accumulated 18 total targets and scored a touchdown in consecutive games. Stafford and Kupp already have a great rapport and face a Commanders defense that allows 266.0 passing yards per game, the most in the league. Also, Washington gives up the second most touchdowns to wide receivers.
Walder: Montez Sweat UNDER 0.5 sacks (+105). I know he's on a hot streak with sacks with 3.5 in his last three games, but this is just too optimistic for a player who doesn't generate elite pass rush win or pressure rates and is on the underdog team. Joe Flacco has just a 4.4% sack rate since 2021 and my model makes the under -166.