The inability to predict the future is a key failing of NFL analysis. Things happen throughout the year, and we're often called upon to discern in the moment the significance of those happenings. "So-and-so signs with so-and-so! Here's why that's HUGE: _____."
But sometimes, because we are human beings who can't predict the future, we get that stuff wrong. An offseason move that appears HUGE turns out to have very little impact, or a negative one where a positive was forecast. A move that goes overlooked turns out to be a season-turner.
Fortunately, the season plays out and we were blessed with the ability to apply hindsight. That's what we're here to do today.
Let's take a look back at 2017 in the NFL -- specifically through the lens of which moves turned out to be overrated and which turned out to be underrated. It's a trip down memory lane. Whether it's a fun one depends on how things worked out for your particular team.
Underrated: Rams hire Sean McVay as coach
At the time of his hiring, McVay was 30 years old (he turned 31 soon after), and the Rams did not look like a salvageable franchise. McVay earned props at the time for hiring Wade Phillips as his defensive coordinator, and some of us thought the Rams could surprise with an eight- or nine-win season if things broke right. But it's hard to believe anyone saw this level of a Jared Goff breakthrough, a division title and either 11 or 12 wins. Even if you liked the McVay hire, no one thought it would turn out to be this good this quickly. It's likely not even the Rams did.
Overrated: The Patriots telling teams they had no interest in trading Jimmy Garoppolo
This turned out to be a bunch of hooey, of course, as the plan ended up being to hold Garoppolo until the trade deadline or until the Patriots got someone to overpay. The latter never materialized, so they took a single second-round pick from the 49ers for Garoppolo, whose on-field performance over the past month has pushed that pick further and further down the round. It's crazy to imagine what the Patriots could have got for Garoppolo had anyone known he'd play this well this soon. But NFL general managers can't see the future any better than the rest of us can.
Underrated: The Browns trade down again, kick the can on their QB problem
It was hard to find too many people killing the Browns for this strategy in April and May, when the prevailing sentiment was that the quarterbacks in the 2017 draft weren't franchise saviors. But then Deshaun Watson turns out to be some combination of Carson Wentz, Michael Vick and Kylo Ren, and the Browns look like a bunch of clowns and people get fired again. It doesn't help the perception of the franchise that this was literally the only team you could feel certain would improve on its 2016 win total -- and yet it didn't. Can't wait to see where "Browns decide to keep Hue Jackson" ends up on this list a year from now.
Overrated: The Kansas City Chiefs' 5-0 start
It came with an opening-night victory over the Patriots, and through five weeks they were averaging a league-leading 32.8 points per game. So the breathless, "Oh my god, Andy Reid has solved football!" narrative didn't sound totally crazy. But a 1-6 midseason stretch exposed some major issues, and while the Chiefs righted the ship in time to win a second straight AFC West title, they're not scaring teams the way they did in September and October.
Underrated: The Saints' draft
It's nuts to think anything about the draft could be underrated. That thing is covered as if it were some combination of a royal wedding and an alien invasion. And fans get way too excited about the extent to which kids right out of college will reshape their teams.
The Saints' 2017 draft is not going to do anything to change any of that. New Orleans got significant contributions from first-round picks Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk (wisely deciding not to trade that Ramczyk pick to the Patriots for Malcolm Butler), second-round pick Marcus Williams and, of course, third-round pick Alvin Kamara. Four major hits in the first three rounds.
Lattimore and Kamara could sweep the Rookie of the Year awards, and the Saints, who were 7-9 in each of the past three seasons, are 11-4 with a playoff spot already clinched. It's not often a draft makes this much of a difference in Year 1, but this year's Saints are (unfortunately for those of us who wish the draft were kept in better perspective) proof that it can be done.
Overrated: Aaron Rodgers returns for Week 15
This was to be the next entry in the "R-E-L-A-X" and "Run the Table" wing of the Rodgers Catalog of Late-Season Miracles. Brett Hundley somehow kept the Packers in playoff contention while Rodgers healed from a broken collarbone, and Rodgers' return in Week 15 was the key to a ninth straight playoff appearance for Green Bay. Only nobody told the oddly resilient Carolina Panthers, who thumped the Packers out of the playoffs and Rodgers back to injured reserve.
Underrated: Vikings sign Case Keenum
The offseason quarterback questions in Minnesota were about whether Sam Bradford could continue to play well if the Vikings fixed the offensive line, when/whether Teddy Bridgewater would get healthy, and what would become of Bradford once he did.
Few imagined the March 31 signing of Keenum, who'd been the Jared Goff placeholder in Los Angeles the season before, as significant in any way. But then Bradford got hurt in the opener before Bridgewater was ready, and by the time Bridgewater was ready Keenum was playing too well to take out. He leads Minnesota into the playoffs as the team that has possibly the best chance ever to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium.
Overrated: The benching of Eli Manning
The Giants sat Manning down and replaced him in the starting lineup with Geno Smith for their Week 13 game in Oakland. Now, this move clearly had repercussions, as the fan base lost its mind and the owners fired coach Ben McAdoo and general manager Jerry Reese the day after Smith and the Giants lost to the Raiders.
The reason the move is in the "overrated" category is because it hasn't meant for Manning what we thought it did at the time -- namely, the end of his time as a Giant. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was elevated to interim coach and basically assigned to just get the car in the garage without damaging it any more. He reinstated Manning as starting quarterback for the final four games and kept third-round rookie Davis Webb on the bench. Manning might be gone in 2018 and replaced by the No. 2 overall pick, but that may have happened anyway without all the goofiness.
Underrated: Andrew Luck's shoulder surgery
Luck was supposed to be back in time for camp. Then the regular season. Then he was supposed to miss maybe a game or two because the most important thing was not to rush him. Turns out, the Colts were wrong about Luck's recovery timetable at every turn, he missed the whole season, and now there are questions about how healthy his arm will be going into the 2018 season. This is why you never take the team's word for it when it comes to injuries. Never.
Overrated: Cam Newton's shoulder surgery
Yeah, it took Cam a while to look right. And no, he hasn't dominated the league the way he did two years ago. But especially considering what has become of his wide receiver corps, Newton is playing more than fine, making the throws he needs to make and still winning games with his legs. Want to talk about "overrated?" How about the offseason "Carolina plans to ask Cam to run less" stuff? The Panthers win games they don't look like they should win, and they are going to be a miserable team to play against in January.
Underrated: The Jaguars hire Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone
This was the weirdest and least-inspiring news of the coaching carousel season. Coughlin wanted to coach and couldn't get a coaching job, so he took this overseer job and kept Marrone, who'd been the interim coach after the Jags fired Gus Bradley late in the 2016 season.
Then came this bizarre offseason in which the NFLPA was filing grievances against Coughlin for trying to get around the rules governing player physicals and the start of the offseason program. Then came a training camp in which Coughlin was crowing about all these padded practices and toughening these guys up, and everybody thought, "Good god, he's going to fire Marrone as soon as things go bad and make himself the coach."
Which might have happened, except things never went bad, and the Coughlin/Marrone Old School program hire turns out to have been a winner. If this really is a copycat league, training camp is going to be rough for more teams than usual next summer.
Overrated: The Buccaneers 'load up' on offense
They signed DeSean Jackson, drafted O.J. Howard and really believed Jameis Winston was primed for a big third season. Problem was, the defense and the run game never got it together, Winston got hurt, and the whole thing fell apart after "Hard Knocks" left town. The Bucs would challenge the Giants as Most Disappointing Team of 2017 if such a thing were possible.
Underrated: Dean Blandino takes a TV job
When he oversaw officiating for the league, Blandino was this sort of unflinching public face. Sure, there were controversies, but he had this knack for getting out in front of them and conveying a sense of "Sorry you don't like it, but tough. Things happen."
This is important in officiating matters. Not everyone is going to like the result, but at least you want to know the process is being administered consistently and with conviction. The NFL gave Blandino a lot more power over officiating and replay matters, and then a few weeks later he left to go work for Fox.
His replacements have not conveyed the same kind of command, and this year's controversies are subject to a feeling by fans and media that the league office is making up replay standards as they go along. You know me, I want replay abolished from all sports because it makes them less entertaining. But as that does not seem to be on the table, the league needs to get a better handle on how it makes these decisions in the moment and how it presents them to the public.