The NFL's release of its schedule Thursday officially kicked off prediction season, and my first crack at projecting the Buffalo Bills' record in 2017 resulted in a 6-10 finish for first-year coach Sean McDermott.
If that seems pessimistic, consider that when the NFL released its schedule last April, I predicted the Bills would finish 9-7 in 2016. I revised that prediction to an 8-8 record by the start of the regular season, and that still proved too optimistic: Buffalo finished 7-9.
My overly rosy outlook on the 2016 Bills was contrasted by the predictions of my NFL Nation colleagues. When I compiled their predictions last September for how the teams they covered would fare against the Bills, they amounted to a 6-10 record for Buffalo. In 2015, NFL Nation nailed the Bills' 8-8 record.
So how does ESPN NFL Nation predict the Bills will fare in 2017? Not well.
Week 1 vs. New York Jets
My prediction: Bills win (1-0)
Rich Cimini’s prediction: Jets win (0-1)
Cimini’s comment: The Jets open on the road for the first time in eight years. The star of this rivalry will be sitting in an ESPN studio in Bristol, Connecticut, talking instead of coaching. No, it won't be the same without Rex Ryan, who was fired by the Bills two years after getting sacked by the Jets. In the battle of the Rex-cessors, Todd Bowles will prevail over Sean McDermott.
Week 2 at Carolina Panthers
My prediction: Panthers win (1-1)
David Newton's prediction: Panthers win (0-2)
Newton's comment: New Bills coach Sean McDermott may have the temptation to walk into the home locker room after spending the past six seasons as Carolina’s defensive coordinator. The same for Buffalo running back Mike Tolbert and wide receiver Philly Brown, who weren’t retained by the Panthers. All will have a star by this one for different reasons. It won’t matter.
Week 3 vs. Denver Broncos
My prediction: Bills win (2-1)
Jeff Legwold's prediction: Bills win (1-2)
Legwold's comment: This is the first visit to Buffalo for the Broncos since a Christmas Eve appearance in 2011 -- a game in which Tim Tebow was intercepted three times. The game will feature two first-year head coaches in Vance Joseph and the Bills’ Sean McDermott. And the Broncos have had their issues through the years with the early game in the Eastern time zone, so Joseph gets his first crack at that trend.
Week 4 at Atlanta Falcons
My prediction: Falcons win (2-2)
Vaughn McClure's prediction: Falcons win (1-3)
McClure's comment: The Bills might not be a pushover, but the Falcons should be just fine at home. The Bills ranked 29th against the run last season, so Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman might both have explosive days.
Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals
My prediction: Bengals win (2-3)
Katherine Terrell's prediction: Bengals win (1-4)
Terrell's comment: The Bengals close out their last game before the bye with some revenge against the Bills. Buffalo barely squeaked by after the Bengals lost A.J. Green on the first play of the game last season. After firing Rex Ryan, the Bills are an unknown team in 2017, but not necessarily a better one.
Week 6: BYE
Week 7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My prediction: Bills win (3-3)
Jenna Laine's prediction: Buccaneers win (1-5)
Laine's comment: This will be just the second time in team history that the Bucs will travel to Buffalo for a regular-season game. The Bucs hold a 7-3 lead in this series, but they face a Sean McDermott-led defense. "He was always going to try to exploit your weaknesses," head coach Dirk Koetter said of McDermott at the NFL owners meetings. "He did a great job of attacking your protections with his blitzes. Very, very sound defense. Rarely out of position. Tough to get big plays on."
Week 8 vs. Oakland Raiders
My prediction: Raiders win (3-4)
Paul Gutierrez's prediction: Bills win (2-5)
Gutierrez's comment: Trap game, anyone? The Raiders have won the past two meetings, though both games were in Oakland. They are 0-2 the past two times they’ve met in Buffalo. Must be the wings.
Week 9 at New York Jets
My prediction: Bills win (4-4)
Cimini's prediction: Bills win (3-5)
Cimini's comment: This is the Jets' only prime-time appearance, a reflection of what the TV networks think of them. In a rematch of Week 1, the Bills -- now comfortable under their rookie coach -- will prevail in an ugly, low-scoring game that will validate the decision to keep the Jets out of the national spotlight.
Week 10 vs. New Orleans Saints
My prediction: Saints win (4-5)
Mike Triplett's prediction: Saints win (3-6)
Triplett's comment: You think the Saints are stuck in a rut after going 7-9 three years in a row? Check out the Bills’ win totals over the past 17 seasons: 8, 3, 8, 6, 9, 5, 7, 7, 7, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 9, 8, 7. They’re trying their latest reboot this year with new head coach Sean McDermott (who knows the Saints well as the former Panthers defensive coordinator). But this should be another winnable matchup the Saints need to exploit.
Week 11 at Los Angeles Chargers
My prediction: Chargers win (4-6)
Eric Williams' prediction: Chargers win (3-7)
Williams' comment: [Anthony] Lynn should know his former team and personnel well when the Bills travel west to face the Chargers. I give Lynn the edge here.
Week 12 at Kansas City Chiefs
My prediction: Chiefs win (4-7)
Adam Teicher's prediction: Chiefs win (3-8)
Teicher's comment: The schedule takes a decidedly easier turn starting here. The Chiefs will get things started with a victory.
Week 13 vs. New England Patriots
My prediction: Patriots win (4-8)
Mike Reiss' prediction: Patriots win (3-9)
Reiss' comment: The first potential bad-weather game for the Patriots. The club hasn’t played a December road game in Buffalo since 2010.
Week 14 vs. Indianapolis Colts
My prediction: Bills win (5-8)
Mike Wells' prediction: Colts win (3-10)
Wells' comment: The Bills blitzed, blitzed and blitzed Luck to the tune of two interceptions, two sacks and a number of quarterback hits when these two teams faced each other in Week 1 in 2015. Rex Ryan is gone and the Bills are in a transition period. Luck gets his revenge against Buffalo.
Week 15 vs. Miami Dolphins
My prediction: Bills win (6-8)
James Walker's prediction: Bills win (4-10)
Walker's prediction: Here is an example of the reverse effect when it comes to weather. The Dolphins often struggle in late-season road games due to the temperature difference, especially in frigid Buffalo. This is another game in which Miami’s inconsistent run defense will be an issue.
Week 16 at New England Patriots
My prediction: Patriots win (6-9)
Reiss' prediction: Patriots win (4-11)
Reiss' comment: Home for the holidays; a nice present from the NFL. In the Belichick era, when the Patriots have played on Christmas Eve, they have been home against the Jets (2016), home against the Dolphins (2011 and 2000) and on the road against the Jaguars (2006).
Week 17 at Miami Dolphins
My prediction: Dolphins win (6-10)
Walker's prediction: Dolphins win (4-12)
Walker's comment: The Dolphins avoid the season sweep by winning at home against the Bills, who often are a tough matchup. Miami finds a way to stop the run in the regular-season finale as it makes one last push for the playoffs.