Saturday's NBA slate features 13 games to choose from. However, I am most interested in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks. The Bucks are 2-0 against the Knicks this season and are riding a six-game winning streak. Saturday's game in New York will be the first of a stretch of seven straight road games. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard finally appear to be in sync. Over the past 15 games, the Bucks rank third in net rating (the net rating of a team indicates how well they score points and how well they prevent their opponents from scoring) ... which leads me to my first recommendation.
Damian Lillard over 29.5 points + rebounds: Dame and Giannis have found a rhythm together for the Bucks, and the statistical goodness is glorious. Jalen Brunson is going to have trouble containing Lillard on Saturday. Lillard has surpassed 29.5 points + rebounds in three of his last four games and has averaged 20 field-goal attempts and 34.1 minutes per game during that span.
Brook Lopez over 4.5 rebounds: Isaiah Hartenstein and Jericho Sims will fill in for Mitchell Robinson, who is out for the season with an ankle injury. Lopez has exceeded 4.5 rebounds in three consecutive games and is averaging 7.4 rebounds per game over his last five matchups against the Knicks.
Jayson Tatum under 43.5 points, rebounds + assists: Tatum has gone under this line in six consecutive games. The Clippers rank seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions, but while Tatum's usage rate this season is 29.6%, the Celtics' rotation also includes playmakers such as Jaylen Brown (28.5%) and Jrue Holiday (17.6%), who are also actively involved.
Franz Wagner over 5.5 rebounds: Wagner has gone over this number in three consecutive games. Also, the Pacers rank second in pace, which bodes well for his rebounding prospects. Over the last 10 games, Pacers center Myles Turner has averaged 3.8 3-point attempts per game. In order to defend him, Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. will have to step out of the paint, and, as a result, Wagner will have more chances to accumulate boards.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 46.5 points, rebounds + assists: SGA is averaging 32.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 34 minutes over his past four games and leads the Thunder with a 35.5% usage rate during that span. The Lakers have had a hard time containing point guards, and SGA, who leads the league in drives per game, is more than capable of exploiting that weakness.
Tonight's lines and BPI predictions
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics, Odds by ESPN BET
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
12:30 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 21-7 (12-16-0)
Knicks: 16-11 (15-11-1)
Line: Bucks (-2.5) Total: 243.5
Money Line: Bucks (-135), Knicks (+115)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 1.2, straight up 54%, 244.1 total points.
Injury report:
Bucks: Jae Crowder, (OUT - Groin); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Foot); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD - Elbow)
Knicks: Jericho Sims, (OUT - Ankle); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Ankle); DaQuan Jeffries, (GTD - Illness)
Boston Celtics at LA Clippers
3:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 21-6 (13-12-2)
Clippers: 17-11 (14-14-0)
Line: Celtics (-1.5) Total: 230.5
Money Line: Celtics (-120), Clippers (+100)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 1.2, straight up 55%, 232.1 total points.
Injury report:
Celtics: Jayson Tatum, (GTD - Ankle); Svi Mykhailiuk, (GTD - Heel); Kristaps Porzingis, (OUT - Ankle); Luke Kornet, (OUT - Thigh)
Clippers: Mason Plumlee, (OUT - Knee); Kawhi Leonard, (GTD - Hip); Moussa Diabate, (OUT - Hip); Joshua Primo, (OUT - Undisclosed)
Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 20-10 (14-15-1)
Hornets: 7-19 (10-16-0)
Line: Nuggets (-8.5) Total: 226.5
Money Line: Nuggets (-340), Hornets (+270)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 8.5, straight up 78%, 233.0 total points.
Injury report:
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee)
Hornets: Cody Martin, (GTD - Knee); Mark Williams, (GTD - Back); Frank Ntilikina, (OUT - Lower Leg); LaMelo Ball, (OUT - Ankle)
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 16-11 (18-9-0)
Pacers: 14-13 (14-13-0)
Line: Pacers (-1.5) Total: 242.5
Money Line: Magic (+100), Pacers (-120)
BPI Projection: Pacers by 2.2, straight up 58%, 238.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Magic: Jalen Suggs, (GTD - Wrist); Joe Ingles, (GTD - Ankle); Markelle Fultz, (OUT - Knee)
Pacers: Jalen Smith, (GTD - Heel); Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD - Ankle)
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans
7 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 14-12 (16-8-2)
Pelicans: 17-12 (17-11-1)
Line: Pelicans (-6.5) Total: 223.5
Money Line: Rockets (+210), Pelicans (-260)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 7, straight up 74%, 227.7 total points.
Injury report:
Rockets: Reggie Bullock Jr., (GTD - Illness); Tari Eason, (GTD - Lower Leg); Victor Oladipo, (OUT - Knee)
Pelicans: Matt Ryan, (OUT - Elbow); Cody Zeller, (GTD - Ankle); Zion Williamson, (GTD - Illness); Larry Nance Jr., (OUT - Ribs)
Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. State Farm Arena, Atlanta
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 8-19 (11-16-0)
Hawks: 12-16 (7-21-0)
Line: Hawks (-1.5) Total: 238.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (-105), Hawks (-115)
BPI Projection: Hawks by 5, straight up 67%, 240.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT - Achilles); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee); Marcus Smart, (GTD - Foot); Derrick Rose, (OUT - Hamstring); Luke Kennard, (OUT - Knee)
Hawks: Kobe Bufkin, (OUT - Thumb); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT - Back); AJ Griffin, (GTD - Personal); De'Andre Hunter, (GTD - Knee); Jalen Johnson, (OUT - Wrist)
Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. Barclays Center, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 2-26 (9-18-1)
Nets: 13-15 (17-10-1)
Line: Nets (-9.5) Total: 233.5
Money Line: Pistons (+380), Nets (-500)
BPI Projection: Nets by 11, straight up 84%, 227.8 total points.
Injury report:
Pistons: Monte Morris, (OUT - Quadriceps); Jalen Duren, (GTD - Ankle); Killian Hayes, (GTD - Illness)
Nets: Ben Simmons, (OUT - Back); Lonnie Walker IV, (OUT - Hamstring)
Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 11-18 (15-14-0)
Raptors: 11-17 (13-15-0)
Line: Raptors (-5.5) Total: 230.5
Money Line: Jazz (+180), Raptors (-210)
BPI Projection: Raptors by 5, straight up 67%, 230.2 total points.
Injury report:
Jazz: Jordan Clarkson, (GTD - Hamstring); Talen Horton-Tucker, (GTD - Foot); Keyonte George, (OUT - Foot)
Raptors: Christian Koloko, (OUT - Illness)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago
Records (Against the Spread)
Cavaliers: 16-13 (13-15-1)
Bulls: 13-17 (15-14-1)
Line: Bulls (-4.5) Total: 216.5
Money Line: Cavaliers (+140), Bulls (-165)
BPI Projection: Bulls by 4.9, straight up 68%, 223.1 total points.
Injury report:
Cavaliers: None reported
Bulls: Torrey Craig, (OUT - Heel); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee)
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 15-14 (12-17-0)
Thunder: 18-8 (18-7-1)
Line: Thunder (-3.5) Total: 240.5
Money Line: Lakers (+130), Thunder (-150)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 7.9, straight up 75%, 239.0 total points.
Injury report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Ankle); Gabe Vincent, (GTD - Knee); Jalen Hood-Schifino, (GTD - Back); Jarred Vanderbilt, (GTD - Heel); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Rui Hachimura, (GTD - Wrist)
Thunder: Josh Giddey, (OUT - Ankle)
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Spurs: 4-23 (10-16-1)
Mavericks: 16-12 (14-14-0)
Line: Mavericks (-7.5) Total: 239.5
Money Line: Spurs (+240), Mavericks (-290)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 7.9, straight up 76%, 235.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Spurs: Charles Bassey, (OUT - Knee); Keldon Johnson, (GTD - Back)
Mavericks: Josh Green, (GTD - Elbow); Kyrie Irving, (GTD - Heel); Luka Doncic, (GTD - Quadriceps); Maxi Kleber, (GTD - Toe)
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
8:30 p.m. Chase Center, San Francisco
Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 7-20 (13-14-0)
Warriors: 14-14 (12-15-1)
Line: Warriors (-8.5) Total: 232.5
Money Line: Blazers (+320), Warriors (-400)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 7.2, straight up 74%, 232.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Robert Williams III, (OUT - Knee); Toumani Camara, (GTD - Thumb); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT - Groin)
Warriors: Draymond Green, (OUT - Suspension); Andrew Wiggins, (GTD - Illness); Gary Payton II, (OUT - Calf)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 21-6 (14-10-3)
Kings: 17-10 (15-12-0)
Line: Kings (-2.5) Total: 232.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (+120), Kings (-140)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 0.5, straight up 52%, 235.6 total points.
Injury report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT - Knee)
Kings: Alex Len, (OUT - Ankle)