My initial game-by-game predictions in April had the Indianapolis Colts finishing with a winning record (9-7) for the first time since the 2014 season, which was also the same season that they reached the AFC Championship Game. But things have changed over the past four months. I made that prediction based on the Colts having quarterback Andrew Luck for all of training camp and for all 16 games during the regular season. Luck didn't take part in training camp and there are questions about whether he'll be playing in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams.
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 10, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m. ET
Will he or won’t he play? That will likely be the question all week when it comes to Luck. Owner Jim Irsay said there’s a possibility that Luck doesn’t play in the opener or in Week 2. Luck sits, Colts lose. Record: 0-1
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 17, vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1 p.m. ET
This is coach Chuck Pagano versus Bruce Arians Part II. But all eyes will be on Luck as he plays in his first game since Week 17 of last season. Luck shows too much rust in his return and Arians moves to 2-0 against Pagano. Record: 0-2.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 24, vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET
Nothing like the Browns coming around at the right time for the Colts to pick up their first victory of the season and take some heat off Pagano. Record: 1-2
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 1, at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Luck and Seattle’s Russell Wilson, the two best quarterbacks taken in the 2012 draft, are the headliners in this game. And when it’s all said and done, Wilson and Seattle’s defense avenge a 2013 loss to the Colts. Record: 1-3
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 8, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 1 p.m. ET
A positive weekend for the Colts starts with the unveiling of Peyton Manning’s statue in front of Lucas Oil Stadium and ends with running back Frank Gore having success against the team he spent the first 10 years of his NFL career with. Record: 2-3
Week 6: Monday, Oct. 16, at Tennessee Titans, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Titans are the team that not many people are talking about in the AFC South. But GM Jon Robinson has set them up for a bright future in Tennessee by putting together a solid roster. Luck suffers his first loss to the Titans. Record: 2-4
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 22, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
This one will come down to the quarterbacks. Time is running out for Blake Bortles to prove that he’s a franchise quarterback for the Jaguars. The Colts pick up their fifth straight victory over Jacksonville in Indianapolis. Record: 3-4
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 29, at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
The Bengals are in a transition period after they missed the playoffs last season. The pressure is on Bengals coach Marvin Lewis. It’ll be on him even more after the Colts go on the road for the victory. Record: 4-4
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 5, at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
The Colts don’t need a reminder about what happened the last time they played in Houston. They blew a 14-point lead in the final five minutes and lost to the Texans in overtime in October 2016. The Colts won't blow another double-digit lead, but they also won't beat the Texans. Record: 4-5
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 12, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
Is this the time that Pagano and Luck (0-3) get their first victory against the Steelers? Nope. Not as long as Ben Roethlisberger is still Pittsburgh’s quarterback. Roethlisberger has thrown for 1,107 yards with 13 touchdowns, no interceptions and no sacks in the past three games against Indianapolis. Record: 4-6
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 26, vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
The Colts’ 11-game winning streak against the Titans ended in October. Indianapolis starts another streak against its AFC South foe. Record: 5-6
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 3, at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
The last two "road" games at Jacksonville have been less than memorable for the Colts. They were blown out by 35 points in December 2015 and couldn’t come back from an early double-digit deficit against the Jaguars in London last October. The Jaguars make it three straight "home" victories over the Colts. Record: 5-7
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 10, at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET
The Bills blitzed, blitzed and blitzed Luck to the tune of two interceptions, two sacks and a number of quarterback hits when these two teams faced each other in Week 1 in 2015. Rex Ryan is gone and the Bills are trying to figure out if Tyrod Taylor is the right quarterback to lead them. Luck gets his revenge against Buffalo. Record: 6-7
Week 15: Thursday, Dec. 14, vs. Denver Broncos, 8:25 p.m. ET
Luck is 2-0 against the Broncos in Indianapolis and the suspense behind this game is not the same now that Manning is retired. The Broncos aren’t the same defensive team as they were in the past, and there are still questions about the quarterback situation in Denver. Luck moves to 4-2 overall against Denver. Record: 7-7.
Week 16: Saturday, Dec. 23, at Baltimore Ravens, 4:30 p.m. ET
The Colts need this victory to stay in contention for the AFC South title. But for the third straight December, Indianapolis fails to do what it takes to get the job done in a tight division race. Record: 7-8
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 31, vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET
The Colts have basically lost the AFC South to the Texans at home in Lucas Oil Stadium in each of the past two seasons. The Texans make it three straight victories over the Colts in Indy. Record: 7-9