Last season, IBM introduced IBM Insights, a tool that uses Watson AI to analyze thousands of fantasy articles, blogs, websites and podcasts and provide support data to assist with fantasy football decisions.
Watson outputs an estimated scoring range for each player, as well as projecting the chances that a player will exceed the upside estimate (e.g. "boom") or fall short of the low end estimate (e.g. "bust") on any given week.
For those that are looking for a tool to concentrate various web opinions into one location in order to help make roster moves, IBM offers Watson's Insights as an unsupervised, quantitative supplement to the more in-depth, personalized analysis that you would normally expect from an ESPN analyst.
The following article points out a few notable insights from Watson for Week 7 of the NFL season, as of early Friday afternoon.
Defense decisions
There are 13 NFL games on Sunday and Monday this week, but defense is a volatile, matchup-driven proposition and the byes rob us of a handful of options each week. While top units like the Jacksonville Jaguars DST or the Los Angeles Rams DST rank in the top 30 overall according to IBM Insights, the eighth-best unit is already down to 120th overall. Thus, there is a lot of volatility, and quite a few units considered weak that will be relied upon to produce this week. Let's take a closer look at a few of the defensive and special-teams units that IBM Insights projects with the best value for this week.
Projections higher than rank
Miami Dolphins DST vs. Detroit Lions
Weekly rank 190, 14th among eligible DSTs
High projection: 14.6 fantasy points
Low projection: 5.5 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.07
Bust chance: 0.13
The Dolphins' high projection of 14.6 fantasy points and their low projection of 5.5 fantasy points both represent the best marks in those categories among any defense playing this week. Relatively speaking, their Boom and Bust probabilities were also low, compared with the other teams. Thus, IBM Insights are identifying the Dolphins as a team likely to have a strong defensive performance this week. The Dolphins enter this week allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but the 28th-most to opposing running backs, while opponent the Lions ranks 14th in the NFL in passing yards per game and 23rd in rushing yards per game. It would appear that these projections rely in part on how the defensive strengths and weaknesses match well with their opponents.
Watson's Insight: The Dolphins are projected as the defense with the highest ceiling and highest floor this week, which would suggest that they project to a safe play.
New England Patriots DST at Chicago Bears
Weekly rank 154, 11th among eligible DSTs
High projection: 13.6 fantasy points
Low projection: 4.7 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.24
Bust chance: 0.07
The Patriots have the third-highest high projection and the fifth-highest low projection this week, slotting them in for a projected strong defensive performance. They also projected with a Boom probability more than three times larger than their Bust probability, further indicating that IBM Insights sees them as low-risk/high-reward. Their opponents, the Bears, have 14 total passing and rushing touchdowns this season, but six of those touchdowns came in one game against the terrible Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Outside of that game, the Bears have eight total touchdowns over their other four games, a much more modest mark that perhaps explains the confidence in the Patriots' defensive unit this week.
Watson's Insight: The Patriots project as a high-ceiling, high-floor unit with a much better chance to over-achieve expectations than to under-achieve, according to Watson.
Most likely to go boom/Least likely to bust
New York Giants DST at Atlanta Falcons
Weekly rank 324, 26th among eligible DSTs
High projection: 11.9 fantasy points
Low projection: 2.5 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.23
Bust chance: 0.13
The Giants have the lowest weekly ranking of any of the 26 teams that play this Sunday and Monday, but their high projection of 11.9 fantasy points for this week is ninth-highest. Their floor was the 18th highest, but their boom chance is almost twice as large as their bust, which indicates that the system has more confidence that they will overachieve their high projection than to underachieve the low. This is a bit of a surprising projection, given that opponent The Falcons have such a potent offense with the fifth-most passing touchdowns and the sixth-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season. However, the very dynamics of the Giants' defense defensive struggles and the Falcons' offensive strengths should mean that the Giants are widely available in most leagues this week. This seems to be a risky projection, but one that has high reward if the IBM Insight projections turn out to be accurate.
Watson's Insight: The Giants defensive team projects to surprisingly solid upside, with a better chance to exceed that upside than to fail to reach the floor projection this week.
Dallas Cowboys DST at Washington Redskins
Weekly rank 201, 16th among eligible DSTs
High projection: 9.6 fantasy points
Low projection: 2.7 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.25
Bust chance: 0.22
The Cowboys' high and low projections are both fairly modest this week, but their boom probability was fourth among all defenses. On the other hand, they are almost equally likely to bust as to boom, making them a high-risk, high-reward prospect this week. The Cowboys are fresh off of their demolition of the Jacksonville Jaguars offense, which may build confidence coming into this weekend.
Watson's Insight: The Cowboys are coming off a strong performance in their last outing, and they make a strong boost or bust prospect this week.