I'm going to try some new things in the Forecaster to start this season. Whereas usually the Forecaster itself is the main output of this article, today I'm going to take it further.
We will still have the Forecaster chart below, which you can utilize for your own planning, but I will also generate a larger number of names to potentially start or sit, based upon the Forecaster. For example, I usually write a disclaimer about how you would generally still start star players even if they are on teams with low Forecaster scores.
Today, I put that to the test by actually projecting out point totals for the top 320 or so players based upon their upcoming schedule, their team's Forecaster score, and my per-game projections to start the season. The results surprised even me, as there are several players on my "potentially sittable" list below who are firmly in that star "I thought they would start pretty much every game" category.
So, let's get into it. After the usual Forecaster chart and explanation, there will be two lists, "potentially startable" and "potentially sittable. I populated these lists using the following general guidelines, per the result of my Forecaster and season projection calculations. Assuming league sizes of 10 teams with 10 starters per team, players ranked below 80 would generally be questionable to start. Similarly, even for 12-team leagues with 10 starters, players ranked below 120 would generally not be expected to start.
Thus, the potentially startable list is comprised of players ranked below 80th in my season-long points rankings who ended up among the top 100 projected players for this week, utilizing the Forecaster. Conversely, the potentially sittable list is comprised of players ranked in the top 100 of the season-long points rankings who ended up outside of the top 120 projected players for this week, utilizing the Forecaster.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date and past-10-games statistics, opponents' numbers in those categories and performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
This is the first full week of action this season, as the opening week of games didn't begin until Tuesday. As such, this is the first week that has teams playing four games. Altogether, nine teams play four games, 16 teams play three games, and five teams play only two games this week. Per the Forecaster, only one team had a rating of 8 or higher (indicating a very favorable schedule), while five teams had ratings of 3 or lower (indicating a very unfavorable schedule).
The Golden State Warriors scored a perfect 10 on this week's Forecaster with four games scheduled and a favorable schedule. Seven other teams scored a '7' on the Forecaster: the Charlotte Hornets (four games), Los Angeles Lakers (four games), Milwaukee Bucks (four games), New Orleans Pelicans (three games), Toronto Raptors (three games), Utah Jazz (four games) and Washington Wizards (four games).
On the other side of the coin, the Miami Heat scored the minimum value of 1 on this week's Forecaster with only two games scheduled. The Hawks (two games) and Magic (three games) both scored 2s, and the Knicks (three games) and Thunder (two games) both scored 3s on the Forecaster.