Will the Marlins new owners trade Giancarlo Stanton and his $295 million contract? As the hot stove fires up, where the National League MVP plays in 2018 is already this offseason's hottest topic. Here are the projected numbers for the next 10 seasons for the 2017 major league home run champ.
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Stanton projects to a total 43.4 WAR for the South Siders over 10 seasons, the fourth-lowest total of the 10 projected landing spots.
Projections -- Chicago White Sox, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .266 .365 .621 141 507 96 135 26 2 50 118 75 170 165 6.7 2019 .264 .365 .616 138 492 92 130 28 2 47 112 74 163 164 6.3 2020 .266 .365 .616 134 482 89 128 27 2 46 110 71 154 164 6.2 2021 .263 .362 .604 130 467 85 123 26 2 43 103 68 147 160 5.7 2022 .258 .357 .580 124 445 77 115 25 2 38 93 65 136 153 5.0 2023 .254 .350 .544 118 425 69 108 23 2 32 82 59 122 142 4.0 2024 .251 .343 .525 110 402 63 101 21 1 29 74 53 109 135 3.4 2025 .250 .336 .505 102 376 56 94 19 1 25 66 46 93 128 2.8 2026 .243 .321 .477 94 350 48 85 17 1 21 57 37 79 117 2.0 2027 .241 .311 .448 86 324 41 78 14 1 17 49 30 68 106 1.3
ZiPS shows Stanton having fewer hits (1,096), doubles (218), triples (15) and third-fewest homers (315) for the Angels than any other team in these projections.
Projections -- Los Angeles Angels, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .263 .353 .584 141 514 90 135 26 2 45 114 68 166 155 6.2 2019 .261 .352 .581 138 499 87 130 27 2 43 109 67 159 154 5.9 2020 .262 .353 .582 134 488 84 128 26 2 42 107 64 151 154 5.8 2021 .260 .351 .569 130 473 80 123 25 2 39 100 62 144 150 5.3 2022 .255 .344 .543 124 451 73 115 24 2 34 90 58 133 142 4.5 2023 .251 .339 .508 118 431 66 108 22 1 29 80 54 120 132 3.6 2024 .248 .333 .494 110 407 59 101 20 1 26 73 48 106 126 3.0 2025 .247 .325 .482 102 380 53 94 18 1 23 64 41 91 121 2.5 2026 .240 .312 .452 94 354 45 85 16 1 19 56 34 78 109 1.7 2027 .235 .300 .422 86 327 39 77 14 1 15 48 27 66 98 1.0
Stanton's 935 RBIs over a 10-year span for the Astros is the third-most for these ZiPS projections.
Projections -- Houston Astros, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .266 .360 .620 141 511 95 136 27 2 50 127 71 167 166 6.9 2019 .266 .360 .614 138 497 91 132 28 2 47 121 70 160 164 6.6 2020 .267 .361 .617 134 486 88 130 28 2 46 119 67 152 165 6.5 2021 .265 .358 .603 130 471 83 125 26 2 43 112 64 145 161 6.0 2022 .258 .351 .570 124 449 76 116 25 2 37 101 61 134 151 5.0 2023 .254 .345 .543 118 429 68 109 24 2 32 89 56 120 142 4.2 2024 .252 .339 .526 110 405 62 102 22 1 29 81 50 107 136 3.6 2025 .248 .329 .501 102 379 55 94 19 1 25 71 43 91 127 2.8 2026 .244 .318 .477 94 352 47 86 17 1 21 62 35 78 117 2.1 2027 .239 .306 .445 86 326 40 78 14 1 17 52 28 66 106 1.3
Stanton's 743 runs, 48.0 WAR and .594 OBP for the Phillies over 10 years are the best for any team in the projections.
Projections -- Philadelphia Phillies, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .276 .371 .657 141 510 100 141 28 2 54 126 73 163 171 7.3 2019 .275 .371 .653 138 495 96 136 30 2 51 120 72 156 170 7.0 2020 .277 .371 .655 134 484 93 134 29 2 50 118 68 148 171 6.9 2021 .275 .369 .644 130 469 88 129 28 2 47 111 66 141 168 6.4 2022 .268 .362 .611 124 447 80 120 26 2 41 99 62 131 157 5.4 2023 .262 .354 .576 118 427 72 112 25 2 35 88 57 117 146 4.5 2024 .261 .348 .553 110 403 65 105 23 1 31 79 51 104 139 3.8 2025 .257 .339 .538 102 377 58 97 21 2 27 70 44 89 133 3.1 2026 .251 .326 .496 94 351 49 88 18 1 22 61 36 76 119 2.2 2027 .246 .314 .465 86 325 42 80 15 1 18 52 29 65 108 1.4
With a projected 1,124 strikeouts over 10 season in the Gateway City, Stanton whiffs less with the Cardinals than any team in these projections.
Projections -- St. Louis Cardinals, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .272 .365 .599 141 511 92 139 28 2 45 117 71 154 153 6.6 2019 .270 .365 .599 138 496 89 134 30 2 43 112 70 147 153 6.3 2020 .272 .365 .599 134 486 86 132 29 2 42 110 67 140 153 6.2 2021 .270 .363 .585 130 470 81 127 27 2 39 103 64 133 149 5.7 2022 .263 .356 .558 124 448 74 118 26 2 34 93 61 123 141 4.8 2023 .259 .350 .528 118 428 67 111 24 2 29 82 56 111 132 4.0 2024 .257 .343 .509 110 405 61 104 22 1 26 75 50 99 125 3.4 2025 .254 .334 .487 102 378 54 96 20 1 22 66 43 84 117 2.6 2026 .247 .321 .463 94 352 46 87 17 1 19 57 35 72 108 1.9 2027 .242 .308 .433 86 326 40 79 15 1 15 49 28 61 97 1.1
In Dodger Blue, Stanton projects to have the most at bats (4,329) and fourth-most RBIs (929).
Projections -- Los Angeles Dodgers, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .272 .360 .627 141 515 95 140 29 2 50 127 67 159 162 6.9 2019 .270 .360 .622 138 500 91 135 31 2 47 121 67 152 161 6.6 2020 .272 .361 .624 134 489 88 133 30 2 46 118 64 144 162 6.5 2021 .270 .358 .612 130 474 84 128 29 2 43 111 61 138 158 6.0 2022 .264 .352 .585 124 451 76 119 27 2 38 100 58 127 150 5.1 2023 .260 .346 .552 118 431 69 112 26 2 32 88 53 114 140 4.3 2024 .256 .338 .531 110 407 62 104 23 1 29 80 47 102 132 3.5 2025 .252 .329 .514 102 381 55 96 21 2 25 71 41 87 126 2.9 2026 .246 .316 .480 94 354 47 87 18 1 21 61 33 74 113 2.0 2027 .242 .306 .453 86 327 40 79 16 1 17 52 27 63 104 1.3
Stanton puts up some of his biggest numbers in pinstripes: 377 home runs, 987 RBIs and a .587 slugging percentage over 10 projected seasons.
Projections -- New York Yankees, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .274 .367 .658 141 511 99 140 27 2 55 135 71 167 169 7.2 2019 .272 .367 .645 138 496 95 135 28 2 51 128 71 160 166 6.7 2020 .274 .367 .649 134 485 92 133 28 2 50 126 67 152 167 6.6 2021 .270 .364 .634 130 470 87 127 26 2 47 118 65 145 162 6.1 2022 .263 .356 .603 124 448 79 118 25 2 41 106 61 134 152 5.1 2023 .259 .351 .570 118 428 71 111 24 2 35 94 57 121 143 4.3 2024 .257 .344 .547 110 404 65 104 22 1 31 85 50 107 136 3.6 2025 .254 .334 .526 102 378 57 96 20 1 27 75 43 92 128 2.9 2026 .247 .321 .489 94 352 49 87 17 1 22 65 35 78 115 2.0 2027 .242 .308 .460 86 326 42 79 15 1 18 55 28 67 104 1.3
Think playing half his games with the Green Monster beckoning helps Stanton's numbers? Think again. Stanton projects to hit his fewest homers (304), have his lowest OPS+ (133) and WAR (36.8) over 10 seasons with Boston.
Projections -- Boston Red Sox, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .272 .365 .597 141 511 91 139 30 2 44 119 71 162 150 5.8 2019 .272 .366 .590 138 497 88 135 31 2 41 114 70 155 149 5.5 2020 .272 .365 .588 134 486 85 132 30 2 40 111 67 147 148 5.3 2021 .270 .362 .582 130 471 81 127 29 2 38 105 64 140 146 5.0 2022 .265 .357 .555 124 449 74 119 27 2 33 94 61 130 138 4.2 2023 .261 .351 .527 118 429 66 112 26 2 28 84 56 117 130 3.5 2024 .257 .343 .504 110 405 60 104 23 1 25 76 50 104 122 2.8 2025 .256 .336 .491 102 379 53 97 21 1 22 68 43 89 117 2.3 2026 .250 .323 .460 94 352 46 88 18 1 18 58 35 76 106 1.5 2027 .245 .311 .437 85 323 39 79 15 1 15 50 28 64 96 0.9
Stanton's projected .267 batting average and 1,143 hits for the North Siders are the most for any of his prospective landing spots, and the 946 RBIs are the second-best total in these projections.
Projections -- Chicago Cubs, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .277 .372 .637 141 509 97 141 29 2 50 129 73 157 163 6.9 2019 .275 .372 .630 138 494 93 136 30 2 47 123 72 150 161 6.5 2020 .277 .372 .630 134 484 90 134 29 2 46 120 69 143 161 6.4 2021 .275 .369 .618 130 469 85 129 28 2 43 113 66 136 158 6.0 2022 .268 .363 .593 124 447 78 120 27 2 38 102 63 126 150 5.1 2023 .265 .357 .557 118 427 70 113 25 2 32 90 58 113 140 4.2 2024 .261 .348 .538 110 403 63 105 23 1 29 82 51 101 133 3.5 2025 .257 .339 .515 102 377 56 97 20 1 25 72 44 86 124 2.8 2026 .251 .326 .487 94 351 48 88 18 1 21 62 36 74 114 2.1 2027 .246 .314 .455 86 325 41 80 15 1 17 53 29 63 103 1.3
We picked the Giants -- a team with a serious need to upgrade in the outfield -- as the best landing spot for Stanton. His 46.2 WAR with the Giants is the second-best in these projections.
Projections -- San Francisco Giants, 2018-27 Year BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OPS+ WAR 2018 .271 .364 .604 141 512 93 139 28 2 46 115 71 159 157 7.1 2019 .272 .366 .600 138 497 89 135 30 2 43 110 70 152 157 6.8 2020 .272 .364 .599 134 486 86 132 29 2 42 107 66 144 156 6.5 2021 .270 .362 .584 130 471 82 127 27 2 39 101 64 137 152 6.0 2022 .263 .355 .563 124 449 75 118 26 2 35 91 61 127 145 5.2 2023 .261 .351 .531 118 429 67 112 25 2 29 81 56 114 136 4.4 2024 .257 .342 .509 110 405 61 104 22 1 26 73 49 102 128 3.6 2025 .253 .333 .493 102 379 54 96 20 1 23 65 43 87 121 3.0 2026 .250 .323 .466 94 352 47 88 17 1 19 56 35 74 112 2.2 2027 .242 .308 .442 86 326 40 79 15 1 16 48 28 63 101 1.4
