Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 22, 2023, 03:00 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

By Derek Carty

Tuesday's slate brings us several pitchers worth streaming, including Zack Littell (3% rostered in ESPN leagues), Grayson Rodriguez (22% rostered) and Wade Miley (11%). Littell doesn't get a long leash, but he should be good for 85 pitches or so in an absolutely elite matchup against a cellar-dwelling Rockies team that is taking one of the biggest possible park hits going into Tropicana. Rodriguez faces a tough Blue Jays offense but has one of the highest talent-based ceilings. Miley is a fallback option if all others are unavailable in a good-but-not-great matchup against the Twins.
The Atlanta Braves are the clear best offense on this slate facing Tylor Megill in the best hitting weather of the day (92 degrees), but Marcell Ozuna (32%) and Eddie Rosario (10%) might be the only hitters worth streaming that are actually available. The Pirates are your best bet for availability, projecting for the fourth-highest team total today according to THE BAT X against the... well, let's be nice and say "struggling"... Adam Wainwright. Andrew McCutchen (16%), Ke'Bryan Hayes (19%), Jack Suwinski (7%), Ji Hwan Bae (2%), Joshua Palacios (0%), Connor Joe (2%), Endy Rodriguez (1%) and Liover Peguero (1%) are all worth consideration.
If speed is what you're after, the Dodgers are facing Noah Syndergaard. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are universally rostered in fantasy leagues, but keep an eye on their SB props at sportsbooks. For fantasy purposes, Chris Taylor (5%), James Outman (27%), Miguel Rojas (1%), Austin Barnes (less than 1%) and Jason Heyward (less than 1%) all project for solid chance of swiping a bag.
For power, the Yankees and Mariners are your best bet. Both teams face flyball pitchers in good home run environments. Giancarlo Stanton (50%), Cal Raleigh (31%), Eugenio Suarez (22%), Teoscar Hernandez (56%), Kyle Higashioka (less than 1%) and Mike Ford (less than 1%) all project well for a home run.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.4	Justin Verlander	R	BOS	98.7%	-155	8.5	58%	6.0	2.1	6.0
13.1	Blake Snell	L	MIA	97.6%	-190	7.5	63%	5.7	2.0	6.6
12.4	Carlos Rodon	L	WSH	73.4%	-190	8.5	63%	5.5	2.1	6.2
11.8	Zac Gallen	R	TEX	99.8%	-130	8.5	51%	5.8	2.5	6.2
11.0	Bryan Woo	R	@CWS	8.3%	-160	8.5	58%	4.9	1.7	4.7
10.6	Grayson Rodriguez	R	TOR	25.9%	-120	8	51%	5.6	2.4	5.4
9.9	Jon Gray	R	@ARI	70.7%	110	8.5	49%	5.3	2.4	5.3
9.8	Bailey Ober	R	@MIL	41.6%	-110	8.5	49%	5.3	2.5	5.4
9.5	Jesus Luzardo	L	@SD	76.2%	158	7.5	37%	5.5	2.7	5.9
9.4	Tanner Houck	R	@HOU	3.3%	130	8.5	42%	4.9	1.9	5.0
9.4	Kyle Harrison	L	@PHI	4.9%	122	9	50%	4.4	1.8	5.3
9.4	Lucas Giolito	R	CIN	85.0%	-135	9	45%	5.5	2.9	6.1
9.1	Johan Oviedo	R	STL	13.5%	-135	10	57%	5.5	2.4	4.7
9.0	Mike Clevinger	R	SEA	14.1%	135	8.5	42%	5.3	2.4	4.7
8.8	Graham Ashcraft	R	@LAA	26.5%	115	9	55%	5.5	2.7	4.8
8.7	Taijuan Walker	R	SF	33.9%	-145	9	50%	5.4	2.6	4.8
8.7	Bobby Miller	R	@CLE	41.1%	-210	9	55%	5.1	2.6	5.0
8.6	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@BAL	56.3%	100	8	49%	5.1	2.5	4.8
8.5	Josiah Gray	R	@NYY	12.7%	158	8.5	37%	5.5	2.8	5.3
8.3	Ty Blach	L	@TB	0.3%	222	9	50%	5.3	2.4	3.8
8.0	Wade Miley	L	MIN	12.4%	-110	8.5	51%	5.0	2.4	4.2
7.9	Bryce Elder	R	NYM	73.2%	-235	10.5	59%	5.5	2.8	4.2
7.8	Zack Littell	R	COL	6.8%	-278	9	50%	4.4	2.0	4.3
7.4	Zack Greinke	R	@OAK	2.6%	--	--	53%	5.2	2.6	3.9
6.9	Hogan Harris	L	KC	0.2%	--	--	47%	5.0	2.7	5.0
6.8	Drew Smyly	L	@DET	13.3%	-120	9	48%	5.0	3.0	4.5
6.7	Reese Olson	R	CHC	1.2%	100	9	52%	4.8	2.8	4.8
6.6	Adam Wainwright	R	@PIT	5.5%	115	10	43%	5.5	3.0	4.3
5.2	Tylor Megill	R	@ATL	2.9%	192	10.5	41%	4.9	3.2	4.6
4.0	Noah Syndergaard	R	LAD	5.9%	175	9	45%	4.7	3.3	3.7

Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

By Todd Zola

Ryan Pressly recorded the final three outs of the Houston Astros' 9-4 home win over the Boston Red Sox last night. It was a non-save situation, but Pressly pitched because he began to warm up in the bottom of the eighth when it was just a three-run lead, then his offense tacked on a pair of insurance tallies. The curious part was that Pressly appeared on Sunday, so this was his second straight day on the hill, putting tonight's game in jeopardy. However, Presslly worked three consecutive games under the almost exact same scenario in July, so it isn't a no-brainer to reserve him on a fantasy team. Furthermore, Bryan Abreu has also pitched the last two days, and Kendall Graveman and Hector Neris also appeared yesterday, giving them a high pitch count over the past three days. Manager Dusty Baker is no doubt relying on Justin Verlander to go deep into tonight's contest, but he probably would use his tired bullpen as normal to secure a potential win.
Paul Sewald was tasked with preserving a 1-1 tie in the top of the 10th after the Arizona Diamondbacks pushed a run across on the bottom of the ninth to draw even with the Texas Rangers. Sewald delivered, and then his club scored three in the bottom of the 11th to win 4-3. Sewald tossed 14 pitches just two days after accumulating 27 on Saturday, so the combined 41 renders his availability for tonight up in the air. Earlier this month, Sewald worked three out of four days after a total of 40 pitches in that span. Complicating matters is backup closers Kevin Ginkel and Scott McGough are similarly taxed, with McGough almost assuredly on the sidelines tonight with 63 pitches since Saturday. Rookie Justin Martinez picked up a save earlier this month when the bullpen was in a similar state, but he also has a high pitch count since Saturday. Benching Sewald is defensible for an adequate replacement; it just won't be for one of his teammates.
The Tampa Bay Rays register as a team with a high winning probability over the next three days as they host the Colorado Rockies for a trio of interleague affairs. The Rays don't have a set closer, though Pete Fairbanks is the primary ninth inning guy with 15 saves and two holds. Jason Adam has 11 saves, but most came when Fairbanks was injured. Adam also has 10 holds. Look for both to be busy over the next three days, racking up fantasy points.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	8/21	P3	Rest	Strk
Ryan Pressly	HOU	85.9%	13	28	0	2
Paul Sewald	ARI	60.4%	14	41	0	1

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF -- 49%) vs. Josiah Gray
Jack Suwinski (PIT, LF -- 7%) vs. Adam Wainwright
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF -- 34%) vs. Tylor Megill
Andrew McCutchen (PIT, LF -- 16%) vs. Wainwright
Joc Pederson (SF, LF -- 5%) at Taijuan Walker
Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B -- 29%) at Walker
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B -- 19%) vs. Wainwright
Brandon Drury (LAA, 3B -- 28%) vs. Graham Ashcraft
Ji Hwan Bae (PIT, CF -- 2%) vs. Wainwright
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF -- 11%) at Walker

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 89%) at Lucas Giolito
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B -- 67%) vs. Jesus Luzardo
Bryson Stott (PHI, SS -- 70%) vs. Kyle Harrison
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B -- 77%) at Grayson Rodriguez
Josh Bell (MIA, 1B -- 62%) at Blake Snell
Lane Thomas (WSH, LF -- 68%) at Carlos Rodon
Daulton Varsho (TOR, C -- 77%) at Rodriguez
Jonah Heim (TEX, C -- 84%) at Zac Gallen
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, RF -- 67%) vs. Bryan Woo
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 64%) at Rodon

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

THE BAT X is a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Prop of the Day

Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles: Over/Under 5.5 strikeouts (-156/+124)

PREDICTION

THE BAT sees Rodriguez putting up 5.3 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 44.5% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $24.43.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

When it comes to Rodriguez's strikeout skill, THE BAT puts him in the 91st percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.
Over his last three outings, Rodriguez has experienced a substantial spike in his fastball velocity, from 96.6 mph over the entire season to 97.9 mph of late.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

Via THE BAT X, the team with the third-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays, with a 20.8% underlying K%.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the No. 21 field in the league for strikeouts, according to THE BAT.
The temperature and humidity for this contest will be the fifth-most suitable for hitting on the slate.
Given his reverse platoon split, Rodriguez will be in a tough position being matched up with six bats in the projected offense who bat from the same side in this matchup.