Longtime readers know that I'm a huge proponent of drafting value.
So what is value, anyway? It's simple: It's when you find that your own opinion on a player is much stronger than everyone else's, and can therefore get that player at a deep discount (or scratch him off your list, should that opinion be unfavorable).
This is what makes a fantasy baseball team yours. If you've done your homework, by now you probably have your own favorite players and likely also have strong thoughts about how so-and-so is being drafted way too early, or how this-other-guy is an outrageous bargain compared to his average draft position (ADP).
There is nothing wrong with having a strong opinion, so long as its rooted in a good base of research of the player's skills.
Here is where I share mine: The list below comprises my favorite value picks for 2018, the players for whom I expect to collect the most shares in my fantasy baseball drafts. They are "Tristan's Twenty."
These are selected considering several measures: My own ranking, ESPN's ADP data, comparisons to other analysts' rankings, offsite ADP data. Anything that can give you a sense of what the general public believes is a player's worth can be handy in determining where you'll find the greatest values.
A funny thing about that: Revealing these picks can influence my odds of landing any of them at "value." It's not uncommon that my competition in drafts takes notes on these players in an attempt to bid me up in auctions or steal them right before my turn in drafts -- you know who you are! -- in which case their inflated price tags might no longer fit the definition of "values." We shall see!
Each player, listed in alphabetical order, also includes a "That's a fact," a statistical nugget that helped drive my stronger-than-the-norm opinion of him.
Nicholas Castellanos, 3B/OF, Detroit Tigers
He's a repeat from last year's list, and in the season that transpired since that appearance, Castellanos set personal bests with 26 home runs, 101 RBIs, 73 runs scored, .218 isolated power and a 76.9 percent contact rate. He'll occupy a top-four-in-the-order role for the first time in his career, a boost to his potential number of plate appearances -- the average PA gain per lineup spot, on average, over the course of 162 games last season was 17.8 -- a plus on what's a rebuilding team. Castellanos has done nothing but improve his contact rate, quality of contact and launch angle in his four-plus-year career, and he seems primed for a major breakthrough in 2018.
That's a fact: Castellanos improved his contact rate by 3.9 percent in 2017 (73.0 percent in 2016, 76.9 percent in 2017) and well-hit average by 32 points (.168 to .200). He was one of only six players with at least 400 plate appearances in both years who improved by at least that much in both categories.
Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Arcia resides in the place on this list where I initially ticketed Ozzie Albies, but Albies' ADP is now 153rd overall, 22 spots ahead of Arcia, and I've seen many industry drafts and outside sources that indicate that I don't possess the highest opinion on Albies out there. For Arcia I evidently do, and I don't think he's all that less valuable a player. He finished among the top 200 on the Player Rater (189th, to be exact) and 225th in fantasy points last season, and exhibited greater selectivity after the All-Star break, when he had an 8.2-percent walk rate that no one seemed to notice. I think there's a good chance he manages 15/15 numbers with upside to 25 steals, and if he can somehow find his way into a higher spot in the Brewers' lineup, he could improve from there.
That's a fact: Arcia's biggest gains last season were against offspeed pitches, previously a weakness for him, as he batted .269 against them, 46 points above the league average, and cut his swinging-strike rate against them by nearly 6 percent.
Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians
The No. 3 pick overall in the 2011 amateur draft and Keith Law's No. 8 prospect overall on his 2012 list, but also a pitcher who nevertheless had a 4.42 ERA in his first five big-league seasons, Bauer is someone for whom we've seemingly been waiting forever to develop into a bona fide big-league ace. Though his 2017 baseball-card numbers might not have looked it, he finally seemed to show glimpses of realizing that potential later in the year, phasing out his cutter and leaning more on his slider and curveball after the All-Star break. That appeared the key to unlocking his full potential, and it puts him on the doorstep of the top 25 fantasy starting pitchers entering 2018.
That's a fact: In Bauer's final 13 starts plus one relief appearance last season, he had 10 quality starts, a 3.53 xFIP and 26.7-percent strikeout rate, which were third, 15th and 14th in the majors (the ratios among qualifiers) during that span.
Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles
For the season's first two months, Bundy appeared in the midst of a breakthrough year, posting 10 quality starts and a 2.89 ERA in 11 turns. The performance wasn't supported by his underlying skills, however, and it caught up to him thereafter, as he had a 5.23 ERA the rest of the way. Through the course of the year, however, he improved significantly in terms of his command numbers as well as against left-handed batters. In a way, he was lucky despite so-so first-half skills, then unlucky despite improvement in the second half. This looks like the path of a young, developing pitcher, and Bundy's stuff does still have the potential to push him nearer to the top 30 fantasy starting pitchers. I'll take the chance that big step forward happens in 2018.
That's a fact: The slider he introduced into his repertoire last season was worth 12.7 runs above average, 17th-best in baseball per FanGraphs, and it was responsible for 75 of his 152 strikeouts.
Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics
Matt Olson seemed to grab all the headlines for his stunning 20-homers-in-41-games finish to 2017, completely overshadowing what was an encouraging debut by Chapman. Chapman brought elite defense, balanced splits and a similar power stroke to the table, the former two traits doing more to lock him into an everyday role of the two, the latter giving him a legitimate chance at finishing with the greater home run total. I'm not saying that I think Chapman will have the better 2018 numbers -- though it could be closer than you think -- but rather that Olson is going in Round 13, while Chapman isn't even one of the top 200 players off the board and has actually gone undrafted in more than 40 percent of ESPN leagues so far.
That's a fact: Chapman appeared in each of the Athletics' final 80 games and all but 18 of their innings in the field during that span last season.
Delino DeShields, OF, Texas Rangers
Stolen bases are at a premium these days, and DeShields is one of the few speedsters being priced fairly this season considering the market. He's going in the 19th round as things stand, which is awfully late considering he's shaping up as the Texas Rangers' everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter. After all, Billy Hamilton is going roughly 100 spots sooner, and he has an on-base percentage 35 points lower the past three seasons combined (.298, to DeShields' .333). If DeShields can keep up the 12.1-percent walk and 75-percent contact rates he had during the second half of last season, he could provide 40-plus steals at a dirt-cheap price tag.
That's a fact: DeShields' FanGraphs baserunning metric last season was 9.2, fifth-best in baseball, and his Statcast Sprint Speed was 29.6 feet per second, fourth-fastest in baseball among players with at least 50 opportunities, behind only Byron Buxton (30.2), Hamilton (30.1) and Dee Gordon (29.7).
Sean Doolittle, RP, Washington Nationals
I prefer to go the cheap route to secure my saves, picking from the second-tier options with the strongest skills, even if they come with more risk than the top closer picks. Doolittle stands out as a pitcher with a checkered injury history but who was lights-out as the Nationals' closer after his acquisition last July 16. He was 21-for-22 in save chances with a 2.40 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 30 regular-season appearances for his new team, and he's healthy today, locking him into the role to begin 2018. It's probably not a bad idea to stash Ryan Madson on your bench in a deeper league, though.
That's a fact: Doolittle, who has an extreme fly ball leaning, often gets there by inducing a lot of weak contact and much of it in the air. He had a .107 well-hit average allowed last season, 19th-lowest in the game, and FanGraphs had him with a 19.4-percent infield fly ball rate, fourth-lowest of 155 qualified relievers.
Brandon Drury, 2B, New York Yankees
Drury, who also made this list last year, is getting a shockingly little amount of attention following his trade to the Yankees, a deal that was a godsend for him from a fantasy perspective. It allowed him to escape Chase Field's new humidor, which could've depressed his power output, and should coax him to try to get more lift on the ball, such as he did during the latter stages of 2016. I wonder whether the prospect appeal -- and perhaps spring numbers -- of Miguel Andujar has people skeptical about Drury's playing time, but I think of any of the Yankees' second/third base types, Drury is the one most likely to play every day. He's not even being regarded a standard-mixed draft candidate, but I think he's closer to being one than most do.
That's a fact: Drury had .305/.360/.533 rates and a .205 well-hit average at Chase Field last season, and he's moving to a comparably hitter-friendly venue in 2018.
Dexter Fowler, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
A barrage of injuries, including to his heel, wrist, shoulder, quadriceps, back, hip and knee as well as an illness, ruined Fowler's first season in St. Louis. In short, if you guess a potential sports injury, you can bet Fowler suffered from it sometime in 2017. Despite the missed time -- 44 games sat out -- he still managed career bests with 18 home runs and 64 RBIs and didn't have rate statistics that were much different from his past half-decade norms. Fowler will return to the Cardinals' leadoff spot again this year, and with his combination of patience, speed and pop, he shouldn't ever be lasting until Round 20 of your draft.
That's a fact: Fowler set career highs with a .488 slugging percentage, .224 isolated power and 25.1-percent line-drive rate in 2017, and his 39.3-percent ground-ball rate was a career low.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
For the second straight season, I'm borrowing Gausman from my "Kings of Command" column, doubling down on this pick because I think he's juuuuuuuuust on this side of a major breakthrough. Though he has struggled in the early stages of each of the past two seasons, he has enjoyed a major surge after the All-Star break in each year, combining for 20 quality starts, 3.25 ERA and 188 strikeouts in 30 second-half starts from 2016-17. It's possible that he's a youngster who merely needed more time to adapt to the bigs than your typical pitcher, and his 26.2-percent strikeout rate during the second half of last year made him especially interesting.
That's a fact: The common thread with Gausman's successful 2016 and 2017 second halves was more than 20 percent usage of his splitter, his go-to out pitch. Now if he can just rely on it that much all year ...
Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres
Incremental gains. I'm a big fan of youngsters who show them at similar stages to where Margot's career is, as they show progress on the learning curve while not being flashy enough so as to attract the attention of too many fantasy managers. He added 34 points to his well-hit average in the second half of last season compared to first half, and boosted his fly-ball rate by more than 8 percent as well, things that hint he might have a 20-homer season in him to go with his already strong reputation for speed. Most don't realize how capable Margot is with the bat; he had eight home runs, .161 isolated power and a 2.9 percent home-run rate in 2017's second half.
That's a fact: Margot's stolen-base ceiling is considerably higher than the 17 he had in 2017. Statcast had him with a sprint speed of 29.3 feet per second last season, which was 10th-best of 451 players with at least 10 opportunities.
German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies
Even in this homer-rich era, Rockies pitchers shouldn't be discarded outright, not if your league affords you matchups flexibility (read: ability to bench Marquez when the Chicago Cubs come to town). That's especially true for a pitcher like Marquez, who has great stuff that could produce sensational results when the matchups are right. He boosted his average fastball velocity to 95.0 mph last season and his curveball was worth 3.7 runs above average, things that could especially fluster opponents away from Coors Field. During his best stretch last season, Marquez had 10 quality starts, a 3.34 ERA and 23.0-percent strikeout rate in 18 starts (April 30-Aug. 8). He cooled thereafter, perhaps the fatigue of adapting to his first extended stretch calling Coors his home, but I'm willing to give him a pass on that and expect he holds up better in Year No. 2.
That's a fact: Marquez had a 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 21.0-percent strikeout rate last season, becoming the youngest ERA qualifier in Rockies history to have numbers at least that good in either category.
Jose Martinez, OF/1B, St. Louis Cardinals
While it seems like there's no path to playing time for Martinez, don't be too quick to use that to write him off. First baseman Matt Carpenter enters the year with questions about his shoulder, and left fielder Fowler is no lock to stay completely healthy. Martinez's bat is good enough that the Cardinals should be creative finding him his spots, and he was so good in a pinch-hitting capacity (.558 wOBA, 98 points better than any other player with at least 20 pinch-hitting appearances) that he should be able to help deep-mixed and NL-only managers even in a limited role. A late bloomer, Martinez took a notable step forward in terms of his selectivity and contact rate at the Triple-A level, which carried over into his 2017 with the Cardinals. He's an ideal final-round pick in mixed leagues that afford you daily transactions.
That's a fact: Martinez's 27.4-percent line-drive rate was 11th-best of the 287 players who had at least 300 plate appearances, and his 90.1 mph Statcast average exit velocity was 25th-best of the 284 players with at least 200 batted-ball events.
Lance McCullers Jr., SP, Houston Astros
I just love this guy's curveball, so much so that I'm willing to forgive him his extreme difficulty staying healthy to give you a full year's worth of starts. If you watched him at all during the first couple of months last season, you saw it at its peak performance: He had nine quality starts, a 2.58 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 28.6-percent strikeout rate in his first 13 outings. Injuries sidetracked him in a major way thereafter, as he had a 7.29 ERA during the remainder of the regular season, but he did rebound with a 2.61 ERA and 23.1 percent strikeout rate in his three postseason appearances. In this pitching-specialized era, I think it's more important than ever to maximize the quality of your innings over quantity, and McCullers gives you some of the best when healthy.
That's a fact: Even with the missed time last year, McCullers' curveball was worth 14.9 runs above average per FanGraphs, fifth-best in baseball, after he led the league with 21.4 runs above average in 2016.
Wil Myers, 1B, San Diego Padres
What fantasy managers will like about Myers is that he has back-to-back 20steal seasons, becoming only the fifth first baseman in history to enjoy multiple such campaigns, making it seem like that threshold is a lock. I'm a little concerned his slowing speed metrics suggest he might get a handful fewer opportunities, but even 12-15 steals would be more than welcome. No, what stands out with Myers is the boost in power, which flew in the face of what we traditionally expect from a player who calls Petco Park his home. He set career highs with 30 homers and .220 isolated power and showed an increasing shift toward elevating the ball as 2017 progressed. He could be on the verge of a 35-homer breakthrough and should never last until Round 7.
That's a fact: Myers' .190 well-hit average represented a 34-point increase over 2016, and he set a career high with his 36.3-percent fly-ball rate and a career low with his 38.6-percent ground-ball rate.
Roberto Osuna, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
Osuna endured an up-and-down 2017, which began with a DL stint for cervical spasms announced just hours before the season's first pitch. He dealt with anxiety issues midyear and ended with five consecutive perfect outings. If you look at his ERA, you probably judge his season forgettable, but if you look at anything else, you'd probably marvel at how successful he was battling adversity. Osuna posted the third-best FIP of any relief pitcher (1.74), trailing only Kenley Jansen's 1.31 and Craig Kimbrel's 1.52, his ERA most easily explained by his shockingly low (and fluky) 59.5 left-on-base percentage. Once those two bigger-name closers are off the board, Osuna will be one of the first closers I'm considering in the next 2-3 rounds.
That's a fact: Osuna leaned more on his sinker and cutter during the second half of 2017, resulting in a 54.7-percent ground-ball rate, and he did it despite practically no significant hit to his strikeout (30.0 percent) or walk (5.0 percent) rates.
Wilson Ramos, C, Tampa Bay Rays
Let's not understate the significance of Ramos' knee surgeries in October of 2016. He required an ACL reconstruction along with repairs to both his medial meniscus and lateral meniscus, operations that often require a whole calendar year (or more) for the player to return to full form. Ramos' return to action was predictably delayed last season, but even as he worked his way back to full strength, he showed similar contact and hard-contact measures to before his surgery, both very good signs. He enters this year with significantly fewer questions than last and is barely even being drafted among the top 10 at his extremely weak position. If I'm waiting on catchers -- and I am most everywhere -- Ramos is one of the backstops I'm most hoping to get.
That's a fact: If we divide Ramos' 2017 into equal 32-game portions, he managed .343/.371/.593 rates, a .209 well-hit average and 11.2 percent strikeout rate in the latter "half." While the "small sample caveat" absolutely applies, those do suggest he was finally starting to hit his groove as the year drew to a close.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
Was there a category in which Rendon didn't set a personal best last season? Check the ledger: .301 batting average, 25 home runs, 100 RBIs, 41 doubles, 84 walks, 13.9 percent walk rate, 13.6 percent strikeout rate, .403 on-base percentage, .533 slugging percentage, .232 isolated power ... need we go on? Now how is it that Rendon isn't drawing more attention than that of a borderline top-50 player? Those doubles are what stand out for me, as he has boosted his fly-ball rate in each of the past two seasons, culminating in a 42.8-percent rate in 2017 that hints to me he could take off in the home run department with a little more luck on those deep flies.
That's a fact: Rendon's critics point out that he's an injury risk, but he has played in 153 (2014), 156 (2016) and 147 (2017) games in three of the past four seasons, which alleviates some of that fear.
Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
As with Marquez, this one is more of a scouting angle than anything stat-specific. Russell did little statistically in 2017 to capture our attention in fantasy, and in this homer-happy era, his 18.5 per 162 career games simply isn't enough. Still, he brings elite defense to the table to fuel a hefty number of plate appearances, and in the games I've seen him this spring, he does look improved (and, more importantly, healthier). Russell also showed a hint of power in his final 31 games of last season, which bodes well for him reaching the 25-homer estimates scouts saw as his future goal. Better yet: He's going outside the top 200, which is way too late considering his pedigree.
That's a fact: In those aforementioned 31 games, Russell batted .274 with .242 isolated power and a .200 well-hit average. He also had a 16.8-degree average launch angle during the second half of 2017, up from 15.2 degrees in all of 2016.
Luke Weaver, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Called upon to fill in for other injuries in the Cardinals' rotation, Weaver brought with him increased fastball velocity and a much-improved changeup, the latter worth 5.5 runs above average per FanGraphs (12th-best among 129 pitchers with at least 50 innings). While he was more of a fly-baller during his minor league days, he experienced much greater success minimizing hard contact and keeping the ball down, not to mention limited left-handed hitters to a mere .252 wOBA. The seeds are there for plenty of growth, and as long as Weaver is going outside the top 30 starters and top 110 overall, I'll be happily taking the chance.
That's a fact: Weaver had awful luck on balls in play last season, his .338 BABIP 20th-highest among 274 pitchers with at least 60 innings, and his 14.0-percent home run/fly ball rate 25th-highest of that same group.