As it turns out, a two-loss team is not out of place in the top four.
After knocking off Georgia and Alabama in two of the past three weeks, when both opponents were ranked No. 1, two-loss Auburn has skyrocketed to No. 2 in this week's College Football Playoff rankings, behind No. 1 Clemson and ahead of No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 4 Wisconsin. The Tigers became the first two-loss team to be ranked in the top four.
The undefeated Badgers have joined the committee's top four for the first time this season, rounding out a potential playoff field that could remain exactly the same on Selection Day should all four teams win their respective conference championships this weekend.
With No. 5 Alabama on the bubble after its loss in the Iron Bowl, it's clear the Tide can still find a way back in with some help, especially considering they're still ranked ahead of No. 8 Ohio State. Should the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin to win the Big Ten title, the committee would have to decide whether their résumé -- with a conference championship and two losses, including to Iowa -- is enough to catapult them ahead of Alabama. With No. 10 USC and No. 11 TCU staring up at the other contenders, they look like long shots at best. Even as conference champions, a one-loss Alabama or two-loss Ohio State would stand a better chance to make the top four.
Here's what the playoff bracket would look like today:
As for the other New Year's Six Bowls, here's a projection based on the current ranking:
The Capital One Orange Bowl is guaranteed the ACC champion, but with projected champion Clemson in a semifinal, it would choose the next highest-ranked ACC team, which is No. 7 Miami. The Orange Bowl must then select a non-conference champion from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame. It would then turn to No. 5 Alabama, which is the highest-ranked available team meeting that criteria.
Any displaced conference champion from the Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 or SEC automatically gets a berth in one of the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach Bowls, which take into consideration geography and fan interest when making selections. Because No. 10 USC, the projected Pac-12 champ in this ranking, can't go to its traditional spot in the Rose Bowl, it would most likely face No. 8 Ohio State in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl.
The next highest-ranked team available is No. 6 Georgia, which makes sense for the nearby Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta. The Bulldogs probably would face No. 14 UCF, which is guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion.
With No. 9 Penn State and No. 11 TCU the highest-ranked teams remaining, they would head to the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic.
Here's what the New Year's Six and New Year's Day would look like, based on this week's rankings:
(All games can be seen on ESPN and the ESPN App.)
Friday, Dec. 29
8:30 p.m. ET: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 11 TCU vs. No. 9 Penn State (AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
Saturday, Dec. 30
4 p.m. ET: PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 USC vs. No. 8 Ohio State (University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona)
8 p.m. ET: Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 7 Miami vs. No. 5 Alabama (Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida)
Monday, Jan. 1
12:30 p.m. ET: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 14 UCF vs. No. 6 Georgia (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
5 p.m. ET: College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 2 Auburn (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California)
8:45 p.m. ET: College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Clemson (Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 8
8 p.m. ET: College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)