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Why RB Joe Mixon might not be back with Bengals in 2023

CINCINNATI -- For the second straight year, Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon was on the sideline as the season hung in the balance.

In Super Bowl LVI and last year’s AFC Championship Game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Mixon was rendered a spectator as Cincinnati’s offense needed at least a field goal late in the fourth quarter to extend the game. Samaje Perine, Mixon’s primary backup and the better pass blocker of the two, was on the field instead.

After the Super Bowl loss to the Los Angeles Rams following the 2021 season, questions were raised about why Mixon wasn’t on the field on the final drive of the 23-20 defeat and whether he was capable of being on the field for more third downs. But after 2022’s season-ending loss to Kansas City, Bengals brass have been asked whether there is a role for Mixon on the roster moving forward.

Mixon carries the fifth-highest salary cap charge among all running backs in 2023, according to Roster Management. But he was 33rd last season in yards per carry among qualifying running backs and 35th in big run percentage, which measures the rate of carries of 10 or more yards, per ESPN Stats & Information.

At the NFL spring meetings in Arizona last week, Bengals executive vice president Katie Blackburn suggested Mixon’s status with the team is tenuous. And the numbers show why he’s at risk of not being in Cincinnati when the 2023 season begins.

“You’ve seen other teams have to make moves,” Blackburn told the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters in Phoenix. “Could we get to that point? Maybe. But it would be down the road here and we have to see if that’s what makes sense or not.”

Blackburn was referencing the need to potentially cut Mixon for salary cap purposes, which is what happened to former Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott when free agency opened last month.

In 2020, Mixon signed a four-year contract extension worth $48 million. It went against the growing trend across the league that discourages spending big money on running backs. Mixon followed the deal with his first Pro Bowl selection in 2021, when he was fourth among all running backs in scrimmage yards.

But in 2022, there was a disconnect between Mixon’s salary and his production. He was one of eight running backs who earned more than $10 million in average salary, according to Roster Management, but ranked 18th in expected points added per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

If Mixon is designated as a post-June 1 cut, which allows the team to earmark his release for the summer for accounting purposes, the Bengals gain $10 million in cap savings that could help the team operate over the course of the season. According to OverTheCap.com, Cincinnati has nearly $17 million in available cap space, which is also around the amount the front office prefers to have available, according to a team source familiar with the numbers, for things such as injuries, player incentives and other costs associated with fielding a team during the regular season. Adding the savings from cutting Mixon would give the team more flexibility.

Blackburn isn't the only Bengals exec to comment on Mixon's future with the team. At the NFL scouting combine, Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin said the running back's status for returning in 2023 was up in the air.

“We'll all see as the offseason goes and what we're able to get done and how the resources are spread around,” Tobin said, referencing the team’s other contracts. “But Joe has been a vital part of our team, a successful part, a contributing part.”

Mixon’s inability to stay on the field in high-leverage situations is another issue. After the 2020 season, the Bengals released veteran Giovani Bernard, which opened the door for Mixon to be on the field for more third-down situations.

That never materialized. In 2022, Mixon was on the field six times in situations of third-and-5 yards or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Perine, who signed with the Denver Broncos this offseason, had 21 snaps in those situations.

Mixon’s rushing production also took a dip last season. Despite a scheme change designed to benefit the Bengals running backs, Mixon’s numbers were still in the middle of the pack.

Mixon ranked 21st in success rate -- a metric that measures the percentage of carries that yield a positive EPA. It was an improvement from his 2021 numbers but Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said the team needs more consistency out of Mixon and the rushing attack.

“Our efficiency in our run game is one of the things we look at,” Callahan said at the combine of Mixon, who rushed for just 814 yards in 14 games last season. “It has been pretty positive over the year, but as far as raw numbers go, we can get more production out of the run game for sure.”

As of now, Mixon and veteran Trayveon Williams are the lone running backs on the roster who saw a significant number of offensive snaps last season. If Cincinnati were to cut Mixon, it will either need to find a suitable replacement during the late stages of free agency, the draft, or increase the workload for Williams, who has just 47 carries over his last 23 games.

Being able to break tackles and reel off big runs will be pivotal for Mixon’s potential replacement if that time comes. Mixon averaged 1.67 yards after first contact per rush in 2022, the lowest rate in his career, according to ESPN Stats & Information. A player such as Illinois’ Chase Brown, who ranked third in broken tackles against Power 5 opponents last season, could fit the mold.

But expect the coming weeks to provide more clarity on Mixon’s future as the Bengals continue to build a roster capable of winning the franchise’s first Super Bowl.