What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 2? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Erin Dolan, Eric Moody, Seth Walder and Anita Marks are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
What advice do you have for bettors as they try to assess what is real from Week 1 and what they should be careful to overreact to?
Moody: Don't make drastic conclusions based on one game; remember, sample size matters. Consider the strength of the opponents each team faced in Week 1. Coaching and strategy are also important. Snaps, targets, air yards, and targets are all great indicators of a coaching staff's intent for certain players. Don't be swayed by public perception of certain teams and players, because context also matters. Make sure your conclusions are backed up with good reasoning.
Dolan: I would be cautious when overreacting to some of the best teams in the league. For example, the preseason Super Bowl favorite in the Chiefs lost by one point to the Lions without Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. That doesn't mean they are not going to be able to be successful this season or this week against the Jaguars. It was one week. Betting is always a case-by-case basis.
Following Week 1's games, there is now a three-way tie on top of the Super Bowl futures market with the Chiefs, Eagles and 49ers all at 7-1. Do you see any of these teams separating themselves from the pack, and are there any other teams that belong in the conversation as Super Bowl favorites?
Fulghum: I think the 49ers are in a class of their own among the elite in the NFL. Their physically dominant win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh should not be taken lightly. Their offense can bludgeon you on the ground and create explosives all over the place through the air. Their defense is anchored by the reigning DPOY, a dominant defensive line and the best middle linebacker in the game. They have no weaknesses and the most elite talent of any roster in the league. I'm picking them to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas.
Tua Tagovailoa moved from 22-1 to win the MVP (10th-shortest odds) before Week 1 to 7-1 (second-shortest odds) heading into Week 2. Are you buying the early Tua-for-MVP hype?
Fulghum: The Tua MVP hype is justified. Ever since Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill arrived in Miami, Tua has played the QB position at a highly effective and efficient level. McDaniel is a brilliant play-designer, and Hill plus Jaylen Waddle give Tua elite talent to work with through the air. The only question is whether he stays healthy enough to stack up stats for 16 or more games? If he is healthy this entire season, there is a very good chance he's among the favorites to win the award.
Dolan: I am not. Tua was on track for a great season and was in MVP contention last season. That was until Tua's concussion problems were the headline. Health and availability are key for the MVP market. This was prevalent last season when Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts were the top two in contention to win the award down the stretch. Then, unfortunately, Hurts was injured against the Bears and Mahomes ran away with the award. On top of that, 14 of the past 18 MVP winners clinched the No. 1 seed in their respective conference, including six straight. So that means that Tua would need to stay healthy for the entire season -- not just one week -- and the Dolphins would need to be one of the best in the AFC.
Walder: I am buying everything about the Dolphins except perhaps Tagovailoa for MVP. Right or wrong, the narrative will be that Miami's success will have been fueled by Tyreek Hill and/or Mike McDaniel, even if Tagovailoa has the best numbers of any quarterback.
Which games do you like most on Sunday?
Fulghum: It may not be the most popular game to watch, but my favorite game to bet is New York at Arizona. I'm going to hammer the Giants -4.5, even on the road. Week 1 did nothing to change my belief that Arizona is the most talent-deficient team in the league. The Giants will be coming off that utterly embarrassing 40-0 loss at home to Dallas on national TV. Brian Daboll will have his team ready to take out that frustration on an overmatched opponent. G-Men by two scores. I'll be using the Giants as my Week 2 Eliminator pool pick.
Marks: Ravens +3 at Bengals. Joe Burrow and his injured calf is an issue. The Bengals only putting up 142 yards against the Browns in Week 1 has the Ravens defense salivating. Lamar Jackson could get Mark Andrews back this week, so I'm expecting a better offensive performance if that happens.
Marks: Falcons -1.5 vs. Packers. Jordan Love's performance in Week 1 was smoke and mirrors. He was one of the most inaccurate passers and his stat line benefited from his supporting cast. The Falcons defense will have none of that, and will dominate in the running game. I love that I get Atlanta only laying 1.5 at home.
Marks: Giants -4.5 at Cardinals. The Giants are not as bad as the final (40-0) score we saw last week against Dallas. The game became a runaway train after they went down (14-0) in the 1st quarter. A series of misfortune proved to be a disaster. The Cardinals are as bad as advertised, and this will be the "get right" game for the G-Men and head coach Brian Daboll. This line should be -6.5 or -7, but it isn't, because of Week 1.
Marks: Patriots +3 vs. Dolphins. The Dolphins will be playing in their second away game -- traveling back from LA -- and have to head to New England, where Bill Belichick is looking for his first win of the season, and bitter from a disappointing loss to the Eagles. The Dolphins defense gave up over 230 rushing yards to the Chargers and Mac Jones looked great against a good Eagles defense, thanks to now having a legit OC in Bill O'Brien. I'll also play the Pats on the ML. I think they win outright.
Walder: Broncos -3.5 vs. Commanders. I'm quite skeptical of a Commanders team that struggled to beat the anonymous Arizona Cardinals. Specifically, that the Cardinals sacked Sam Howell six times has me concerned about the Washington offense. I suspect the Denver defense is going to have a good day.
How do you evaluate the Jets without Aaron Rodgers? Do you wait and see, or have the odds adjusted enough to make you willing to bet the Jets-Cowboys (-8.5) game?
Moody: The odds have adjusted enough to bet on the game. ESPN's Rich Cimini said the Jets' offense will be "more conservative and more vanilla" with Zach Wilson now under center. On Monday night, we got a peek at what the offense could look like, which will feature Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall quite a bit. Given how dominant the Cowboys defense was last season and against the Giants in Week 1, this is a very challenging matchup for the Jets. The under is a good bet for this game.
Dolan: Jets +9. This matchup features the biggest line movement of the week with Dallas moving from -3 to -9, but I think the Jets cover the spread. Dallas is coming off a 40-point shutout win Sunday night against the Giants. This will come down to defense. The Cowboys allowed a 8.5 QBR (lowest in NFL), led NFL with 7 sacks, 23 pressures and 23 QB contacts. Meanwhile the Jets defense was critical with four takeaways in a win over the Bills on Monday night. Also, take a look at the total for this game 38.5, which is tied for the lowest this week. Oddsmakers expect this to be a low-scoring game with these stout defenses, so I think 9.5 points is too much for a New York team that can shut down Dallas' offense.
Marks: An emotional week for the Jets, and now reality sets in that Rodgers is out for the season. This Jets team will go nowhere with Zach Wilson at QB and Nathaniel Hackett is going to have to go to work. I like the UNDER (38.5) in this matchup, as both defenses are stellar!
Walder: I'm not playing either side but I'll tell you what I am playing: Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions at +152. My model expects Wilson to have a 44% chance of avoiding an interception. If that sounds high, I'll note that Wilson has avoided throwing a pick in a full 50% of his career starts. In addition, what Eric noted Cimini reported is relevant: The Jets' offense will be more conservative with Wilson under center. Hence, a lower risk for picks, even with an interception-prone quarterback.
Is there anything else you are playing on Sunday?
Fulghum: I'm interested in playing the Lions/Seahawks game OVER the total in Week 2. Ford Field doubled as the Coors Field of the NFL in 2022. Lions home games averaged 58.4 combined points per game! Only one of the nine games played at Ford Field last season failed to reach 50 points. These very Seahawks traveled to the Motor City in Week 4 last season and delighted fantasy fans everywhere winning a 48-45 shootout. Seattle looked awful in Week 1 against the Rams and it's a legitimate concern that they are likely playing this game without both starting tackles, but the domed environment and the offensive talent on the field still make me feel comfortable taking this game over the total.
Moody: Zach Wilson UNDER 176.5 passing yards. Wilson has averaged 182.8 passing yards per game as a starter in his career while completing 55.2% of his passes. The Cowboys' defense made life miserable for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones last week. On nearly 67% of his dropbacks he was under pressure, getting sacked nine times and hit 12 times. At this stage of his career, Jones has more experience and poise than Wilson. The Jets offensive line ranked last in pass block win rate. New York would be wise to rely on the running game.
Moody: Sam LaPorta OVER 34.5 receiving yards. LaPorta had a solid debut in Week 1 against the Chiefs. He finished with 39 receiving yards, and his five receptions were the most by a rookie tight end in their debut since 2019. Meanwhile, the Seahawks' defense has ranked near the bottom of the league in yards allowed and points since 2017. In Week 1, Tyler Higbee had 49 receiving yards against Seattle, and LaPorta can do the same.
Moody: James Cook OVER 50.5 rushing yards. Against the Jets on Monday night, Cook led the Bills backfield in snaps, rushing attempts (12) and rushing yards (46). After losing to the Jets in Week 1, Buffalo will be motivated to get back on track against the Raiders on Sunday. Cook is poised for a big game.
Walder: Josh Allen (Jacksonville) UNDER 0.75 sacks (-145 at DraftKings) is my favorite defensive prop I've seen thus far. Patrick Mahomes just doesn't take sacks. His 3% sack rate dating back to the start of last season ranks second best among QBs, and Allen isn't a good enough player in my (well, my model's) mind to justify this price. I make the fair price -263.