The Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves will face off on Thursday night for Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals. Denver didn't have the best start to this series, dropping the first two games, but the Nuggets bounced back with three straight wins to take a 3-2 lead over Minnesota.
The Nuggets defeated the Timberwolves handily in Game 5, putting them on the ropes for Thursday. While bettors have a number of options in this matchup, three bets from this game stand out to me as a good value. Let's get into it.
Aaron Gordon over 3.5 assists (-160).
Gordon has been a game-changer for the Nuggets. He has excelled on offense and defense, surpassing 3.5 assists in four of his past five games. He has averaged 7.0 potential assists and 34.7 MPG over that span and is primed to stand out as a facilitator in Game 6.
Nikola Jokic to record a triple double (+210).
Jokic delivered an epic performance in Game 5 against a stout Timberwolves' defense, reminding everyone why he was named the league's MVP. His teammates feed off that energy and the Nuggets won't win without Jokic impacting the game on multiple levels.
He has averaged 20.8 field goal attempts, 19.4 rebound chances and 14.8 potential assists throughout the series, indicating a strong chance of finishing Game 6 with a triple-double.
Justin Holiday over 5.5 points and rebounds (-125).
This prop is lower than expected. Holiday has surpassed 5.5 points and rebounds in four of his past five games. He has logged ample minutes off the bench, playing 19 or more minutes in three games this series. Holiday might exceed this line with rebounds alone.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
West semifinals -- Game 6
8:30 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Records (against the spread)
Nuggets: 57-25 (38-42-2)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
Line: Timberwolves (-2.5) Total: 204.5
Money Line: Nuggets (+115), Timberwolves (-135)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 0.3, straight up 51%, 207.6 total points.
Injury report:
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - calf); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - knee); Collin Gillespie, (OUT - knee)
Timberwolves: Mike Conley, (GTD - achilles); Jaylen Clark, (OUT - achilles)