Now that we've gotten to the stretch run of the NFL season, schedule strength is more important than ever in figuring out which teams are most likely to make it to the playoffs. There's a big difference between playing three of your last four on the road and playing three of your last four at home. And there's a big difference between a must-win late-season game against the New England Patriots or New Orleans Saints compared to a must-win late-season game against the Cleveland Browns.
Which teams have the most favorable and least favorable schedules over the final month of the season? To figure that out, we looked at the expected number of games a perfectly average team would win against each team's remaining schedule. This method incorporates both the quality of the teams left on the schedule (based on Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, explained here) and the split of home and road games. The probability of beating Dallas is adjusted during Ezekiel Elliott's suspension, while probabilities for playing teams such as the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans are adjusted for backup quarterbacks. The numbers listed below assume that Aaron Rodgers will return for Green Bay beginning in Week 15.