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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Kevin Gausman projects as a great streamer for Sunday's MLB slate. Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyApr 28, 2024, 03:52 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Splitting hairs

          One of the most difficult decisions to make is when to cut bait on a player, especially those drafted as roster anchors. Even though Kevin Gausman was drafted with the knowledge he was nursing a sore shoulder in the spring, the outlook was optimistic, so he was still expected to be one of the better starting pitchers.

          Through five starts, Gausman is sporting a 5.57 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP. Optimists will note Gausman's xFIP and SIERA are both a run and a half lower. Even so, Gausman wasn't drafted for a 4.00 ERA.

          Under the hood, Gausman's 18.6% strikeout rate is well below his career 24.7% average, and even lower than the 29.8% mark he has logged since 2020. His .348 BABIP is high, but Gausman usually carries a high level, including a historically high one in 2022.

          Predictably, Gausman's swinging strike rate is well below normal. His four-seam velocity is down 0.5 mph while his signature splitter is down 0.8 mph. These two pitches work in concert. Gausman throws one of the best splitters in the league because it plays so well off his four-seamer. The inefficiency of his heater carries over to the splitter.

          Gausman insists that his shoulder is fine, but the numbers suggest otherwise. Gausman is in the third year of a five-year contract and the Blue Jays are in a window where they want to win before keeping their core intact will become a financial burden. This supports Gausman's healthy contention since the Toronto Blue Jays don't want to lose their ace for the second half of his contract.

          Furthermore, Gausman has thrown 101 and 100 pitches over his last two outings. It just doesn't make sense that he'd be doing that with a lingering shoulder issue.

          On Sunday, the decision to start or sit is based on format and needs. The Blue Jays are hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. In head-to-head leagues, it's about desperation. If you're behind, you probably need to roll the dice. If you're ahead, reserving Gausman to protect the lead is the safe call. In other formats, my personal lean is to start my ace.

          Some want to see a struggling pitcher post a solid game before trusting him. It can be argued that Gausman pitched well last time with 6 2/3 innings while allowing no earned runs to the Kansas City Royals, but he only fanned two, along with yielding three unearned tallies. However, facing the Dodgers is a tall task. In daily formats, keeping Gausman on the bench is viable. Perhaps you can then try to vulture a save from an available closer.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • Not only are the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs playing an interleague series in Fenway Park this weekend, but they also announced a trade, with Garrett Cooper joining the Red Sox for cash considerations. Cooper is expected to collect more of the action at first base while Triston Casas is on the 60-day IL. Bobby Dalbec heads to the bench. Cooper is expected to join the club on Tuesday.

          • The Los Angeles Dodgers lifted Tyler Glasnow from yesterday's start after the righty experienced cramps in his throwing hand. The move is being deemed "precautionary" with the likelihood that Glasnow will make his next start. He logged six innings in the Dodgers' road win over the Toronto Blue Jays, yielding just one earned run on two hits with nine strikeouts.

          • Josh Lowe was expected to be activated by the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday, but his return will be delayed. An oblique issue initially delayed Lowe's 2024 debut, but now he's dealing with hamstring tightness. Lowe will undergo an MRI on Monday.

          • The New York Mets placed Starling Marte on the bereavement list. He's expected to rejoin the club on Tuesday. Mark Vientos, who had been hitting .302/.388/.535 in 23 games on the farm was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse. He entered yesterday's game in the seventh inning as a pinch-hitter for Brett Baty. LHP JoJo Romero was on the hill for the St. Louis Cardinals, so Mets skipper Carlos Mendoza opted for the platoon edge with Vientos. The club will face righty Lance Lynn today and another righty, Jameson Taillon tomorrow, so Vientos will likely be relegated to pinch-hitting duties. He's expected to return to Triple-A when Marte returns, but if he keeps producing, Vientos could return to the big club later in the season.

          • Miguel Sano is experiencing left knee soreness. The Los Angeles Angels held him out of yesterday's 16-5 home loss to the Minnesota Twins. He's also expected to miss today's contest with an IL visit being a real possibility. Sano had been playing a lot of corner infield.

          • Paul Sewald was scratched from his scheduled bullpen session after experiencing soreness on Saturday. He is rehabbing an oblique issue, although yesterday's setback isn't thought to be serious. Kevin Ginkel should continue to collect saves for the Arizona Diamondbacks while Sewald is out.

          • The news for Seattle Mariners reliever Matt Brash isn't as encouraging. On Saturday, the club reported that Brash has been shut down due to elbow soreness. Brash will go to Dallas for an evaluation with Dr. Keith Meister, whose specialty is internal brace surgery.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • Trusting Lance Lynn (44.6%) as a streamer isn't good for your blood pressure, but not only is he the highest-ranking spot starter on the slate, he's the top overall hurler. The St. Louis Cardinals wrap up a series in Citi Field against a New York Mets lineup with a below-average home run rate at home. The hosts will have J.D. Martinez in the lineup, helping power, but it's still a favorable matchup for the veteran right-hander.

          • Brandon Pfaadt's 4.97 ERA is misleading with the estimators pegging it at a run lower. He's been victimized by a low 62.5% LOB mark. Pfaadt's 22.1% strikeout rate is a tick below average, but he draws a Seattle Mariners lineup fanning at the highest rate in the league. Matching up with Logan Gilbert isn't ideal, but Pfaadt should notch a bunch of punch outs in what should be a low-scoring affair.

          • The finale of the Mexico City series portends to be the opposite. Austin Gomber drew the short straw for the Colorado Rockies, so any available Houston Astros right-handed batters are in play. Jeremy Pena (44.3% rostered) is the top option, with Jose Abreu (3.9%) in a good spot to get out of his rut.

          • Betting tip of the day: Framber Valdez gets the nod for the Astros. While it's comforting for his fantasy managers that Valdez's absence from elbow inflammation was only a relatively short 19 days, many wish it could have been extended a few more days until when the Astros host the Guardians on Tuesday. At least Valdez will be on a pitch count so the damage here could be minimal. Valdez should not populate any active fantasy lineup, but the odds are too favorable not to take him for under 3.5 strikeouts (+210).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday