With the MLB season coming sooner than you think, ESPN's fantasy baseball experts have gathered to break down each position to help you prepare your draft-day strategy.
How are our fantasy analysts approaching the outfield, and which players are they picking and avoiding in their drafts?
For more position previews, plus rankings, cheat sheets and mock drafts, check out our draft kit.
How are you approaching the outfield position this season?
Outfield is always a deep position in fantasy even when more than 50 are required for active roster spots in ESPN standard leagues. While I never target offensive spots early in drafts or auctions, this season I have been more likely to secure a top option and several mid-round choices, then taking a chance on a later outfielder or two knowing that there will be free agents available ready to contribute. I do pay attention to versatile outfielders, of course, players that can aid in each of the five categories, with a hint toward stolen bases, which might explain how I keep ending up with Delino DeShields as a late pick! -- Eric Karabell
Outfield is neither relatively deep nor shallow, so I don't have any unusual strategies beyond recognizing that a significant chunk of my team's stolen-base production needs to come from my outfielders, as well as that in standard (and even 12-team) mixed leagues, it is a position where it's a bit easier to find production available on the free-agent list in-season. Since I'm not a big proponent of drafting Billy Hamilton at his current ADP this season, I think at least 50 steals are going to need to come from all of your other outfielders combined in a Rotisserie league, and it could be more if you didn't follow my advice to get a good percentage of your team's steals from either your second base or shortstop positions. Your second, third and fourth outfielders are probably going to need more critical consideration than your first or fifth.
Incidentally, in points leagues where stolen bases are devalued, I'm taking more of a steaming/fill-on-the-cheap strategy in the outfield, at least after the very best at the position are off the board. This is a position where I'd be willing to spend on a top-notch talent like Mike Trout, Mookie Betts or Giancarlo Stanton, then go cheap with each of the other four spots, knowing that the position is deeper in the latter stages. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
I've never really worried too much about my outfielders in previous years, as there always seem to be a good chunk of sleeper options available in the last 5-10 rounds of drafts to fill in the final few lineup spots. That said, in most of my mocks this season, especially because I view all four infield spots as having more depth than usual, I've been grabbing as many OF as possible in the first five or so rounds to front-load my team with a glut of power, speed and reliability. Having a core offense that's stocked with Trout, J.D. Martinez, Cody Bellinger and Tommy Pham (which is what I did in one of our ESPN staff mocks) puts me well ahead of the curve at this position without having to sacrifice too much anywhere else on the diamond. -- AJ Mass
I don't think the OF position is as deep as you think when you consider that at least five are required in your starting lineup. There aren't 40 outfielders that I am comfortable in starting right now, so I am making a point of it to get a pair of outfielders in the first couple of rounds. Of course, it depends on the flow of the draft, but I've finished with rosters that I like in which I selected three outfielders in the first five rounds. The term "position scarcity" is greatly overrated and I'm not going to use it here, but if I'm truly torn between two players in the first 10 rounds, I am likely to break the tie in favor of the outfielder. -- Kyle Soppe
My sleeper in the outfield is:
Manuel Margot hit for more power than expected and did not steal as many bases, but do not worry because the big numbers are coming. Margot established himself as the center fielder and leadoff hitter for an emerging offense in San Diego and feels like a decent choice for 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases even though nary an outfielder achieved each of these statistics last season. Margot is ready to be a top-100 fantasy option in his second full season. -- Eric Karabell
He's coming off a serious injury, yes, but Michael Conforto is an absolute steal going in Round 17 and with 170.0 ADP. He's on the verge of playing in spring-training games already, giving him a legitimate chance at being in the New York Mets' lineup by mid-April. Conforto was a top-75-overall player at the time his season drew to a close last Aug. 24, and that was with him playing at less than full strength for a good chunk of the latter weeks of it. In the draft range in which he's going, few players have a higher statistical ceiling. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Jay Bruce is a solid No. 3 outfielder with top-50 overall upside, especially in points leagues. He came close to hitting 30 HR with the New York Mets last season and, had he not been traded to Cleveland, he certainly would have done so. Back with the Mets on a new three-year deal, Bruce is expected to bat third this season. Last year, with men on base, he batted .282 with a .937 OPS. I'm expecting similar results this season, making him worth a pick at least four rounds earlier than his current Round 14 status in ESPN ADP. -- AJ Mass
Adam Eaton missed one season and now we are all out on him? Why? With an OBP since 2014 (.363) higher than trusted assets like J.D. Martinez and Jose Abreu, Eaton gives you a nice floor, especially at his current asking price. But, for me, his appeal doesn't just come with a high floor, it comes with a higher ceiling than most people seemingly want to admit. Washington leadoff hitters got on base just 32.1 percent of the time last season and yet, thanks to the middle of this order, were able to score 116 times. The run count has the chance to be elite and with 15/15 skills, Eaton is as good of a four-category producer you will find at this point in the draft and looks like a top 100 player to me. -- Kyle Soppe
My bust in the outfield is:
Billy Hamilton does one thing well for fantasy and one thing only: He steals bases. That is great for those seeking stolen bases but he is well below average for power and batting average and this season the Reds could and should cut into his playing time. Hamilton is an offensive liability, and his ability to run is not creating enough offense. Rookie Jesse Winker could have more than 100 points of on-base percentage on him. Yes, Hamilton is an awesome defender but that might not be enough anymore. I just cannot justify an early selection on a one-category hitter. -- Eric Karabell
I like Aaron Judge a lot, and think his 50-homer potential is legitimate, but the remainder of his offensive game is somewhat sketchy and he did get a late start to spring training due to November shoulder surgery. It's rare that I pay last year's prices for the unexpected superstar, especially one who brings such a streaky nature to his game due to a high strikeout total. Judge's ADP is 17th overall (17.5), which is just too soon for him. He's more of a third-round pick, so I'm unlikely to get him in any leagues. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Judge was a rookie juggernaut of epic proportions, which is why his sophomore season can't help but pale in comparison, barring a Ruthian encore. For me the issue is the K-rate, which is a huge depression on his overall value in the points format. Additionally, I don't think too many people are going to pitch around Judge to try and get to Giancarlo Stanton, so the walks might not be as plentiful in 2018 either. He's still on target to be a top-25 hitter if Judge rises to the expectations on his very broad shoulders, but drafting him in Rounds 1-2 is just asking for a verdict of disappointment. -- AJ Mass
Watch Byron Buxton glide in the outfield or uncoil at the dish while launching a long homer and it is easy to see what most do: an athletic prospect with a tantalizing ceiling. I don't disagree on that front, but I do disagree with paying for it as much as fantasy managers currently are. The second half of 2017 was impressive, but are we positive that he has fully outgrown what we saw in the first few months (.216/.288/.306 slash with 32 more strikeouts than hits)? If you're going to roll the dice on a power/speed youngster, why not go with Margot 60-70 picks later? It's not you, Buxton, it's your ADP. -- Kyle Soppe
If I could get any outfielder at his current draft position cost to build around in drafts, it would be:
Pham was certainly a big surprise for the Cardinals and fantasy managers but his ability to contribute across five offensive categories outside the first five rounds of a draft makes him a perfect building block. Jose Altuve and Betts are the only players with 23 or more home runs and stolen bases last season, and they are first-round selections. Pham goes after Round 6. What a bargain and a solid building block because it does not appear to have been a fluke! -- Eric Karabell
I'll be the guy drafting Justin Upton everywhere, clearly. He's 38th in ADP currently (38.4) and barely a top-50 player per some offsite ADP sources, but he's a better player than either of those measures. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Christian Yelich will get a huge park upgrade in terms of overall power potential by moving from Miami to Milwaukee for the 2018 season. He scored a career-high 100 runs for the Marlins last season and could easily join the 20-20 club in his new lineup, where he's expected to hit No. 2. The general consensus is that he's already top-10 OF, but I see a ton of upside here that could easily catapult him into the top five -- which is something I'm not feeling from Upton, who is being selected ahead of him by a good five picks. -- AJ Mass
J.D. Martinez is an interesting case, as I thought he'd be overpriced based on his unrepeatable run with the Diamondbacks last season (.302/.366/.741), but that isn't the case based on draft data thus far. He has consistently shown the ability to hit for power, spray the ball all over the field and his chase rate has declined in three straight seasons. Martinez profiles as an elite hitter that is in the midst of his prime and is now a fixture in the middle of a strong Red Sox lineup. Maybe this is a hot take, but of the outfielders that don't have any speed upside, Martinez is my favorite. -- Kyle Soppe
The young outfielder who could break out is:
I do not want to call Atlanta Braves prospect Ronald Acuna the next Mike Trout, because that is not fair, but watch the youngster play and it is obvious we could see major statistics even in Year 1. Acuna might not get the promotion to the majors until a few weeks into the season, but he sure looks ready to contribute and I keep moving him up in my rankings. So what if he spends a few weeks in Triple-A? I can wait. I think you can wait as well for someone with top-10 potential. -- Eric Karabell
It's Acuna, who best fits the "2018's version of Andrew Benintendi" description of any rookie, but to give some attention to another youngster, Jesse Winker is rather underrated. Winker brings a more polished hit tool and exceptional plate discipline for a player of his age and experience, and since I prefer the sabermetrically angled/walks-driven scoring systems more than traditional Rotisserie, he could really shine. Winker looks like a .280-hitting, .360-on-base performer at the least, and that's going to be a tough player for the Cincinnati Reds to keep out of the lineup. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Two things that stand out from Margot's 2017 were his 13 HR -- a surprise, given that his previous best was 2014's 10 HR in Class A. The other was the 20 percent K-rate, a career-worst that nearly matched his hit total for the season (106 K, 128 H). Of course, the kicker is that Margot is only 23 years old as 2018 gets underway and has the speed to steal 30-plus bases in a lineup that could well drive him home 100 times -- so long as he can get on base himself. That's not a guarantee, but the table is indeed set for that breakout to happen. Do you have faith in this young member of the Friars? -- AJ Mass
Kyle Schwarber. Getting a piece of the Cubs' offense isn't a bad idea, especially when you can get it with an 18th round pick. The price on Schwarber is reactionary to getting burned by him last season, so there is a definite buying window. His profile looks similar to that of Khris Davis, yet more than 100 picks separate the two right now. Now, don't misread what I am saying here as there is still significant risk. But the Cubbies are likely to give this 25-year-old every chance to succeed and I think his ceiling is considerably higher than his current ADP would suggest. -- Kyle Soppe