When it comes to my strategy for pitching in points leagues, I've always been an advocate for using a closer-heavy staff in order to maximize potential weekly points without having to worry about one bad outing destroying my chances at a win.
For example, if you were streaming Homer Bailey on Aug. 6, when he allowed 10 ER on 10 hits and 4 BB in his 3.1 IP, odds are good you ended up with an "L" for that scoring period, with nobody else to blame. Yes, closers can have a bad game, but the damage is limited due to the timing of those appearances.
In any event, the most successful version of this strategy is to supplement your fantasy bullpen with as many starters as possible who can claim membership to an elite tier of arms that qualify for what I call the "Rule of Seven." No secret password is required, but you will need an ERA of 3.50 or less and a K/BB of 3.50 or higher. Add those two simple stats, and you get seven, hence the name.
While it might not sound like it's all that exclusive of a club, at any given time during the course of a season, you're likely to find only around 25 or so members, given an appropriate minimum number of starts. At the end of the 2017 season, there were only 19 pitchers who started even a single game and hit both milestones, and there were only 14 with a minimum of five starts.
However, looking back isn't going to be nearly as valuable to fantasy managers getting ready for their 2018 drafts as a look ahead would be. To that end, based upon the latest ESPN projected stats, I've compiled a list of the 16 pitchers currently expected to finish the upcoming season on the "Rule of Seven," as well as another 10 names who are closest to making the cut.
Obviously, most of the names on this list are going to be no-brainers, though I'd argue that only serves to validate the use of this "shortcut" in scouting starters, rather than diminishing its value. After all, there are a few eyebrow-raising inclusions on this list -- and it's by targeting those outliers that many a league championship can be won.
March 2018 "Rule of Seven" candidates
Best of the bunch
Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco
Solid selections
Luis Severino, Jacob deGrom, Zack Greinke, Yu Darvish, Aaron Nola
Barely missed the cut
Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Chris Archer, Jose Quintana, Gerrit Cole, David Price
With a little luck
Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers: It wasn't the K/BB rate that was an issue, but rather Maeda's 4.22 ERA that kept him on the outside looking in last season. Throw out his three starts at Arizona, however, and his ERA drops to 3.63 for the season, which puts him right on the precipice. With the humidor now in effect at Chase Field, feel free to grab Maeda, and you might not have to worry about sitting him for dates against the Diamondbacks.
Ross Stripling, Dodgers: He's a swingman to be sure, and he isn't likely to get a ton of starts this season, barring injury to one of the Dodgers' usual starting five. But with Rich Hill's recurring blisters, don't be afraid to nab Stripling off the waiver wire when you see that he's about to be tabbed for a spot start. He's the kind of pitcher who can stick.
Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals: He threw four perfect innings on Sunday, which is likely putting an end to any hopes of sneaking this sleeper past the rest of your league. That said, even if he gives you "only" the 3.88 ERA and 4.24 K/BB that he did in last season's 60-inning showcase at the major league level, taken over what could be as many as 150 IP in 2018 should be well worth the selection.
Luiz Gohara, Atlanta Braves: Even though he's going to miss perhaps up to a month, it's his ankle that is the cause of concern. His arm will be fine once he can restart the ramping-up process. Prior to his latest injury, a spot in the Atlanta rotation was all but assured. Not too shabby from a guy who started last season in high-A. Stash him on your bench with your last pick if you can. You'll be glad you did.
Surprising members
James Paxton, Seattle Mariners: Don't be scared off by the fact he has been getting roughed up in early Arizona action. Paxton (2.98 ERA, 4.22 K/BB) easily made the club last season, and once his breaking ball gets back into form, he should be able to return to regular meetings going forward.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds: The rookie just missed out on membership last season, with a 3.06 K/BB, but with a little more control, he'll get to punch his card this season. Even if he does fall a bit short, the lure of a 10.0 K/9 from a guy who closed out 2017 with a .174 BAA in his last seven starts? Sign me up.
Chad Green, New York Yankees: After he went 5-0 last season, primarily as a reliever, the Yankees announced that they were thinking about transitioning Green to a starting role for 2018. New manager Aaron Boone, however, has changed course, and the team is now planning to keep Green in the pen. However, should injuries befall this rotation, Green could be moved again. If so, don't hesitate to grab him.