The Buffalo Bills have two potentially franchise-altering decisions to make in the coming weeks.
First, general manager Brandon Beane must decide whether the Bills can and should trade up from No. 12 in the first round of the draft. Second, depending on what pick Buffalo acquires and who is available, Beane must choose which top quarterback prospect is most likely to bring his team a championship -- Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield.
If the Bills trade up for one of those quarterbacks, or if one falls to No. 12, their pick will be judged against the others in the group who might have been available. That choice will eventually become a large part of the evaluation by Beane, who is entering his first draft as Bills general manager after being hired last May.
But for the organization as a whole, there is more to the story.
The Bills' potential selection at quarterback later this month must also stack up against Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, two of the quarterbacks Buffalo passed on taking when they traded the No. 10 overall pick in the 2017 draft to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs took Mahomes, who will get his chance as Kansas City's starter this season. Watson went No. 12 to the Houston Texans and posted the NFL's highest Total QBR (81.3) and fifth-highest passer rating (103.0) through Week 8 before suffering a season-ending knee injury in practice.
In the trade, the Bills acquired the Chiefs' No. 27 overall selection, which they used to select cornerback Tre'Davious White. They also received a 2017 third-round pick -- used to trade up in the second round for wide receiver Zay Jones -- and the Chiefs' first-round selection in 2018 (No. 22).
White was one of the NFL's top rookies last season, starting all 16 games and finishing second in the Associated Press' defensive rookie of the year voting. He has the potential to become a perennial Pro Bowl player for the Bills.
However, White is not a quarterback. He will not change the path of the franchise the way Watson could in Houston, or how any of the top four quarterbacks -- and maybe more -- in this year's draft could.
If the Bills are ultimately left with White and no franchise quarterback to show for their trade with the Chiefs, and either Watson or Mahomes becomes a star, jobs could be on the line in the years to come.
Just ask former New York Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum, who scored four studs in his first two drafts -- offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, center Nick Mangold, cornerback Darrelle Revis and linebacker David Harris -- but failed to find a quarterback.
Tannenbaum's big gamble at the position came in 2009, when he dealt the Nos. 17 and 52 overall picks, as well as three players, to the Cleveland Browns for the No. 5 pick. The Jets took Mark Sanchez, who had a 39.2 Total QBR and 71.7 passer rating in four seasons before Tannenbaum was fired after the 2012 season.
The Jets' cost to move into the top five of the draft for a quarterback will likely pale in comparison to what the Bills would be expected to give up in a similar trade up for a quarterback this April.
It would be a career-defining roll of the dice for Beane, whose stockpiling of draft capital has raised fans' anticipation of a final trade to land the highest-drafted quarterback in Bills history.
If a deal happens and Beane successfully finds a franchise quarterback, the comparison to Mahomes and Watson will become moot and Beane will be considered one of the shrewdest decision-makers in football -- and probably Bills history.
But if Beane trades up for a quarterback and that player falls short of the other prospects available, then Beane will be judged accordingly.
In that case, Buffalo's decision to pass on Watson and Mahomes in 2017 -- made when Beane was still with the Carolina Panthers -- would do little to help the overall cause of Beane and coach Sean McDermott going forward if either Watson or Mahomes proves a superior quarterback to a 2018 selection.
It is also possible that Beane does not land one of the top quarterback prospects in the upcoming draft, opting or being forced to stay put at No. 12 and look to another position. That could leave Buffalo with AJ McCarron and Nathan Peterman as its top two quarterbacks.
Such an outcome would not only invite questions about whether Beane's extensive maneuvering to acquire 2018 draft selections was for naught, but it would add to the discussion about McDermott and former general manager Doug Whaley's decision in 2017 to trade the No. 10 pick instead of selecting Mahomes or Watson.