The offseason of Shohei Ohtani is officially upon us.
It begins with the Los Angeles Angels' five-day, exclusive negotiating window, a time when teams are given the first opportunity to keep their own players. In this case, it is merely a formality, a feeble attempt to delay the inevitable. Beginning Monday, the most uniquely talented player in baseball history will hit the open market, triggering a fascinating free agent sweepstakes rife with wonder, mystery and uncertainty.
Throughout the summer, while he navigated his third season as a transcendent two-way talent, speculation on the value of Ohtani's free agent contract became increasingly more outlandish, from $500 million to $600 million to (gulp) almost $800 million. His dominance on the mound, his prowess in the batter's box and his appeal around the globe -- not to mention his age, 29 as of July -- demanded it. Then Ohtani sustained another tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, underwent a second Tommy John surgery -- or some hybrid version of it, given the vagueness of his agent's description -- and further complicated a circumstance that was already without precedent.
Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the orthopedic surgeon who performed both of Ohtani's elbow procedures, wrote in a statement on Sept. 19 that Ohtani will be able to hit by the start of the 2024 season and resume a two-way role by 2025. But none of this is straightforward. The sample size of pitchers undergoing two UCL surgeries is relatively small, the number of success stories even smaller. Ohtani will navigate the arduous rehab while hitting, running, sliding and fulfilling all his duties as an everyday designated hitter, turning this into a guessing game for even the most educated people on the subject.
"It'd be a mistake to assume he won't be a two-way player again," a front-office executive for an American League team said recently. "But how many years of that can you get?"