When I began playing fantasy basketball, I was newly married. My only dependent was a turtle. I had long hair and swung a mean B-Bender Telecaster. You could still roster Michael Jordan (even if it was Jordan, Wizards Aberrational Edition.)
I was irrational ... and loved it.
Now? I have children who are old enough to play fantasy hoops on their own. My hair is cropped to a corporately acceptable Morrisseyesque length. I noodle away on the freaking ukulele. And if you squint just right, you can almost forget Jordan 2.0 ever transpired.
I am rational ... and kind of hate it. But I still encounter that same buzz during the opening week of the NBA season.
You know what I'm talking about. The sophomoric, embarrassing palpitation of opening night, when the stats start pouring in. The trip to the nearest dive sports bar to watch the returns like it's election night. The instant validation of having drafted Caris LeVert. The crushing existential drift of having missed out on Jayson Tatum.
Then the older, rational me, checks in. I remind myself that the NBA campaign is only 1/82nd old. After all, this is fantasy hoops: the fake sport of queens and kings. If I wanted to place way too much emphasis on the small sample size of a single game, I could have stuck to fantasy football.
I try to slow that impulse to trade half my team away. And I calmly begin to go through my little checklist of early-season trends that actually matter.
How are rotations shaking out? Which new coaches are upping the pace of their new teams? Which players have bounced back from an injury?
One of my standbys: Which young players are beginning to mine previously untapped areas of statistical upside? I love to map out when a second- or third-year player unlocks a new pool of production.
This opening week, these are some of the young players -- and pools of upside -- I'm keeping an eye on.
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
Upside unlock: free-throw attempts
I just saw the Nikola Jokic-led Nuggets edge the Boban Marjanovic-led Clippers. Jokic is a quiet fantasy killer. His numbers sneak up on you. (His opposite: Lou Williams, who drops his numbers with little exclamation points.) In Fantasyland, Jokic is a top-10 player. He's a near-complete statistical force.
But when you're the first option in your offense, a 7-footer, and shooting 85 percent at the line? You should be getting to the line more than 4.2 times per game. Top-10 players typically average at least 7.0 FTA.
During his first couple of seasons, Jokic tended to drift on the perimeter. A brilliant passer, he deferred a little too much. If you've rostered Jokic, you know he could stand to be a little more ... consistently assertive.
This opening week, I'm watching how Jokic responds to being the focal point of his offense. The more onus he has to score, the more he'll assert himself, and the more he'll get to the line.
Opening night: He got to the line 10 times. That's a positive development.
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves
Upside unlock: blocks and steals
I don't want to go all Jimmy Butler here, but Towns needs to step up his defensive intensity. And while "defensive intensity" isn't a category in most fantasy leagues, blocks and steals are.
A player with Towns' length, range and athleticism should be averaging more than 2.5 steals+blocks per game. Any player logging minutes under coach Tom Thibodeau should be maximizing his defensive potential. Now that the gauntlet has been (very publicly) thrown, it will be interesting to see if Towns ups his game on the other end of the floor.
Opening night: Zero blocks+steals. Fouled out in 22 minutes. Maybe Towns was a little too intense.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
Upside unlock: 3-point percentage
Embiid has already established his (very rare) stretch-5 credentials. He's averaged at least 1.0 3s per game in his first two seasons. But Embiid's 3-point percentage regressed in 2017-18, dropping from 36.7 3FG percentage to just 30.8 3FG percentage. If Embiid is going to continue his opening-night trend of launching 4.0 3-pointers per game, he'll have to back up that volume by pushing his percentage back over 35.0.
Opening night: 25 percent from 3-point range.
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons
Upside unlock: free-throw percentage and assists.
Is it greedy to ask for another bump in free-throw percentage? Drummond (obviously) cracked one big area of untapped upside in 2017-18, upping his FT percentage from a calamitous 38.6 to a nearly respectable (for a big) 60.5. This improvement is a boon for his prospects in rotisserie formats, but he still has room to grow at the line.
Like Jokic, Drummond's secret sauce is his distribution potential. He averaged 3.0 APG in 2017-18: a huge average for a center. Unfortunately, he's now sharing the frontcourt with Blake Griffin, who seems a lock to generate at least 5.0 APG from the 4. It will be interesting to track how heavily Drummond's assists potential is kneecapped by Griffin's presence.
Opening night: 75 percent from the line. Only two assists to Griffin's six.
Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns
Upside unlock: 2-point percentage
Booker is already among the NBA elite in 3-point production. In 2017-18, he converted 2.4 out of 6.2 3-point attempts per game ... good for an uncommonly healthy (for a 21-year old) 38.3 3FG percentage.
The problem? Booker hit only 46.0 percent of his 2-point attempts. His best 2-point percentage: the 46.4 percent he shot as a rookie. Looking at Basketball Reference, there's an obvious hole in his range: Booker shot only 35.1 percent from 3-10 feet. That was a career low, down from 44.3 percent from 3-10 feet in 2016-17.
Ironically, Booker's percentage improves from further out. Last season, he shot 40.0 percent from 10-16 feet, and 45.1 percent from 16-plus feet.
Opening night: 6-of-9 from 2-point range, 67 percent.
Clint Capela, C, Houston Rockets
Upside unlock: field-goal attempts
Capela paced the league last season with a 65.2 FG percentage and a 65.2 eFG percentage. But he averaged a paltry 9.1 field-goal attempts per game. That league-leading FG percentage isn't going to do fantasy managers much good if Capela remains stuck below 10.0 FGA a night.
I'm looking for Capela to add some weight to his FG percentage. He needs to add volume. Capela proved himself a strong finisher on the pick-and-roll last season ... hopefully he's able to build on that in 2018-19. The Rockets made a big ($90 million) commitment to Capela, which should portend an expanding offensive role. (Fantasy-wise, upping that 58.0 FT percentage wouldn't hurt either.)
Opening night: Nine field-goal attempts. (And he didn't get to the line).
Donovan Mitchell, SG, Utah Jazz
Upside unlock: points
We all know Mitchell was the rookie surprise of 2017-18. Now in his sophomore season, the question is how will Mitchell respond to being the veteran alpha dog? Does his offensive production have another gear? Can he push his average into elite 24.0-25.0 PPG territory?
Opening night: Led the Jazz with 21 points.
Aaron Gordon, PF, Orlando Magic
Upside unlock: true shooting percentage
There isn't another young power forward with more untapped fantasy upside than Gordon. So far over his career, Gordon has registered incremental progress, with occasional flashes of his top-20 potential.
One second-line stat that shows where he's fallen short: true shooting percentage. A truly elite power forward with Gordon's stretch-4 potential should be compiling a TS percentage of at least 60 percent. During the past two seasons, Gordon has been stuck at a 53.0 TS percentage.
Opening night: 63.0 TS percentage
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Sacramento Kings
Upside unlock: minutes
We haven't gotten a true bead on Cauley-Stein's true post-Boogie fantasy potential. The reason is simple: a lack of consistent playing time. Sacramento should be an underrated hotbed of fantasy production this season. They have a rotation populated by young players with all kinds of untapped upside (Cauley-Stein, De'Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley III, Buddy Hield). But for Cauley-Stein to find consistency, he needs 32-34 minutes per tilt.
Opening night: 38 minutes.