Minutes are the coin of the realm in fantasy basketball. Just as we crave snaps, targets and touches for our fantasy football assets, when assessing fantasy value on the hardwood, we look for opportunity in the form of minutes, the most important factor when it comes to the potential for statistical success.
While most NBA teams have identified their starters by this late into the preseason, we still find some battles for meaningful roles and minutes underway on the doorstep of the new NBA season. In this piece, we canvas the league for some of the most relevant position battles for fantasy purposes.
Depth chart nuggets in Denver
The Denver Nuggets' backcourt could offer some value for fantasy investors. Will Barton broke out with helpful numbers at a shallow shooting guard position last season, while Gary Harris was useful in deeper formats, thanks to a rich allotment of minutes. Harris is currently recovering from a partially torn groin muscle, which has led to increased preseason exposure for rookie combo guard Jamal Murray.
Nuggets coach Michael Malone recently said of Murray, "We're going to have him play on the ball and off the ball. He's got to learn all the spots on the floor. That's what a good point guard should do anyway."
We identified Murray as a deep sleeper candidate this season, but it's even more intriguing to consider that he could challenge an inefficient Emmanuel Mudiay for time at point guard, something Barton and Harris can't claim. The Nuggets ranked 25th in the league in 3-point percentage last season, at just 33.8 percent from beyond the arc. Murray shot nearly 41 percent from deep at Kentucky last year, while Mudiay hit only 31.9 percent of his 3-point attempts as a rookie. If we can mix some assist upside into Murray's emerging fantasy profile, Mudiay's shaky fantasy stock takes another hit.
Questions about whether Denver could get consistent minutes for their tandem of talented bigs, Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic, are being answered this preseason, as the team is starting both in a uniquely big frontcourt. Last season, this pairing played together on just 184 possessions and produced a lowly offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of just 97.6, with a net rating of negative-7.1 points. This preseason, the tandem has a 103.4 offensive rating and a plus-6.8 net rating in 117 possessions together.
Denver seems to be making it clear that both could sustain minutes and value this season. Nurkic is second in the NBA this preseason, with 11.5 boards per game, and Jokic ranks 11th, at 7.7 per game. There should be enough exposure for Jokic to realize his awesome offensive upside, while Nurkic offers a cheap path to a double-double at a shallow center position. What was assumed to be a key battle has turned into a key pairing, as both bigs appear viable as fantasy assets, thanks to the team's creative deployment.
Meaningful minutes in Miami's backcourt
The Miami Heat were essentially forced to speculatively pay a big price to secure Tyler Johnson during a unique NBA offseason that saw marginal talents cash in across the league. Johnson has responded with a strong preseason, recently scoring at least 14 points in three straight games while shooting 58.3 percent from the field. He has showcased solid 3-point metrics and nearly one steal and three assists per game over the exhibition season. Johnson will likely be Miami's sixth man to start the season, a role that could prove rewarding across several categories.
The Heat will also find stable minutes for shooting guards Dion Waiters and Wayne Ellington. Waiters has hit half his attempts from beyond the arc this preseason, and both he and Ellington are averaging 25 minutes per game for a team in need of scoring pop now that Dwyane Wade is in Chicago. Ellington ranks behind only Klay Thompson of the Warriors in 3-pointers made and attempted this preseason, so he could be a fine shooting specialist to target in deeper leagues.
For patient investors in deeper leagues, shares of an injured Josh Richardson could also pay off down the line, as he hit 46.1 percent from 3-point range last season and could emerge as the long-term statistical winner at the 2 for Miami.
Small forward battle on the Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers were major check writers this offseason, as they gave both Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner deals worth more than $70 million and retained Maurice Harkless for $40 million. Crabbe will remain the team's third guard and the de facto leader of the team's second unit, but the battle at small forward between Turner and Harkless has been interesting this preseason.
The winner of this position battle appears to be Harkless, as he has been a consistent starter while offering far more defensive versatility than Turner, given his ability to guard both small and power forwards. Turner could eat into Crabbe's value more than anything, as both will compete for distribution duties on the second unit. Harkless claimed awesome per-36 rates last season in a quiet breakout effort for Portland; he averaged one 3-pointer, 1.2 steals and nearly a block over this adjusted production rate. With such diverse statistical potential, Harkless is a fine sleeper now that he has apparently won the starting gig for the Blazers.
Philadelphia's center city
The Philadelphia 76ers have a big problem, or rather, they have the problem of having too many bigs. They'll need to find exposure for a trio of players, Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, who are each best-served by playing center. Embiid is the most exciting offensive prospect of the bunch, given that he has averaged 10.3 points, nearly six rebounds and a block in just 14.2 minutes per game in the preseason.
Noel could earn some time at power forward and as the small-ball center, especially as Embiid will reportedly cap out at a minutes restriction of around 25 per game to start the season. Given the combination of Embiid's rising average draft position (currently going 101st overall), I'm avoiding him with centers such as Nurkic and Houston's Clint Capela able to be found in later rounds.
The fantasy angle for Noel has always been his rare defensive exploits. With Embiid facing limited exposure, we think there is great profit to enjoy with the depth chart traffic driving Noel's draft stock down this fall. Noel, after all, is just the fourth player in NBA history with at least 230 blocks and steals in his first two seasons. The other three names on that list are David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon and Andrei Kirilenko. Even in the face of competition for minutes, Noel's ability to fuel big block and steal rates equates to rare fantasy impact, given that these are the scarcest of statistical categories.
As for Okafor, he could be the odd man out for fantasy purposes. Not only is the Duke product still on the mend from last spring's knee surgery, but his high-usage, ball-dominant game also requires him to net tons of touches and minutes to produce. It's also worth noting that he offers upside only in points and rebounds, while both Embiid and Noel help their causes with their strong defensive rates. Okafor's strong surface numbers as a rookie were largely volume-driven on a barren roster, so we find it tough to believe he'll return value on his inflated average draft position, which is currently 85th overall in ESPN drafts.