The 2014 NBA draft was hyped as "the Andrew Wiggins draft."
But all the attendant Wiggins hype (coupled with LeBron James' subsequent return to Cleveland) masked another story. The class of 2014 was a draft class of tantalizing, drool-worthy depth.
Stocked with diverse talents such as Jabari Parker, Dante Exum, Nerlens Noel and Aaron Gordon, the class of 2014 seemed like a candidate to rival the LeBron draft of 2003 for star potential.
Time will tell whether it will go down in NBA history as "the Andrew Wiggins draft." To date, the class has produced a lot of depth. Upwards of 20 sophomores are tangibly contributing to fantasy teams.
But for all its ballyhooed depth, the class of 2014 has yet to produce a single surefire top-40 fantasy star.
Two years later? There have been a lot of injuries. So far, it hasn't exactly been a 2003 redux. But the potential is still there. Several players are knocking on the proverbial door. The 2016-17 season could be a big one for the class of 2014.
Let's take a quick trip through which players are closest to posting a fantasy breakout campaign in 2016-17. (Not that this column is all about the future. Many of these same players are positioned for a late-season burst of playing time and fantasy production.)
Looking back at my day-after-draft column from June 27, 2014, I was as excited by the class as any since the LeBron draft. For sake of comparison, I'm going to refer to my rookie rankings I set the night of the 2014 draft.
15. Dante Exum, PG/SG, Utah Jazz My 2014 rank: 3
Don't sleep on Exum.
One of the big reasons behind 2014's lack of top-40 fantasy stars? Several of 2014's more promising draftees have seen their development kneecapped by season-ending injury. Along with Julius Randle and Jabari Parker, Exum's ascent has been hampered by injury.
Due to his overseas pedigree, Exum entered the NBA as something of a mystery. But some evaluators were convinced Exum was the best player in this draft.
14. Markel Brown, SG, Brooklyn Nets My 2014 rank: NR
I pushed Brown last week in my article on tanking teams. He's certainly backing up my enthusiasm, posting back-to-back 20-point games. He's in a low-expectation, fantasy-friendly situation and is building up his minutes. Elite steals potential and above-average 3-point production...when his shot is falling.
13. Clint Capela, PF/C, Houston Rockets My 2014 rank: NR
If (when?) Dwight Howard leaves Houston this summer Capela will land on a lot of fantasy sleeper lists. He's done well filling in for Howard, and was building some momentum before injuries hit. Capela's great defensive numbers and solid rebounding mean real double-double potential.
12. Nikola Mirotic, PF, Chicago Bulls My 2014 rank: NR
Mirotic is one of the more frustrating players of the 2014 class. He has flashed fantasy star potential at times, only to watch it disappear due to bouts of injury and inconsistency.
Still, when Mirotic puts it all together, he fashions stretch-4-riffic stat lines that evidence top-40 upside. Even on a minutes limit last night, Mirotic still contributed 14 points, 6 rebounds, two 3-pointers, two blocks and a steal. In 20 minutes. If Pau Gasol goes elsewhere this summer, the table will be set for a (hopefully healthy) Mirotic to be a sleeper in 2016-17.
11. Gary Harris, SG, Denver Nuggets My 2014 rank: NR
With Danilo Gallinari on the shelf, Harris gets an extended opportunity to establish himself as a top option in Denver. Harris has responded, posting past-5 averages of 17.0 points, 1.8 3-pointers and 1.6 steals, while shooting 50 percent from the field.
Harris is known for his 3-point ability (1.3 per game, but he supplements his production with a solid steals rate (1.3 per game) and not-bad-for-a-SG rebounding (2.9 per game).
10. Marcus Smart, PG, Boston Celtics My 2014 rank: 5
I'm still very high on Smart. If anything, he's been a victim of the Celtics' success this season. As opposed to Wiggins or Randle, he's not in a pure developmental situation. He's on a serious playoff team with an overcrowded backcourt.
Smart has put it all together in fits and starts, posting a double-double (15 points, 11 rebounds) last week against the Trail Blazers. He has top-shelf steals potential (1.7 per game), rebounds well and racks up assists.
Smart's biggest drawback? Shooting. He's only shooting 36 percent from the floor. From deep, he's downright scary (the bad scary) at 28 percent. Both percentages are regressions from his rookie campaign.
9. Julius Randle, PF, Los Angeles Lakers My 2014 rank: 2
We all know Randle missed nearly all of the 2014-15 season with a broken leg. But while his double-double potential has transformed into reality, we're still waiting on production in other categories to arrive.
Games like Sunday's -- 12-points, 13-rebounds against the Warriors -- are all well and good. But without any blocks or steals, Randle's ceiling is both limited and low.
8. Rodney Hood, SG/SF, Utah Jazz My 2014 rank: NR
At 3.48 player rater points for the season, Hood is the second-best sophomore in terms of sheer production. Hood gets my vote for biggest sophomore overperformer. He's been the main fantasy beneficiary of the Dante Exum injury. I'd wager Hood is putting up better numbers than even Exum would have posted.
Hood's across-the-board stat line (14.0 points, 2.0 3-pointers, 3.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.9 steals) points towards the kind of player that lands on winning fantasy lineups. My only worry headed into 2016-17? Exum stealing minutes from Hood.
7. Jordan Clarkson, PG/SG, Los Angeles Lakers My 2014 rank: NR
I hear your collective whine, Lakerland. Clarkson should be higher on this list. Clarkson and D'Angelo Russell are looking like a nice backcourt for a post-Kobe world.
My concern is that the Lakers will acquire or draft another guard to hamper Clarkson's development. That, and general Laker mismanagement, combined to keep Clarkson out of the top five.
5. (TIE) Zach LaVine, PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves My 2014 rank: NR
Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (My 2014 rank: 4)
I chickened out putting LaVine ahead of Wiggins on this list. I probably should have.
Already clocking in at 20.6 points per game, Wiggins is developing his point production ahead of schedule. But fantasy-wise, he's not adding much beyond the points. Averaging 0.6 3-pointers, 3.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.6 blocks, Wiggins is certainly knocking on the door in multiple categories.
But LaVine is posting more diversified fantasy-friendly stat lines. He's pushing his 3s and steals rates above the 1.0-per-game mark, while outperforming Wiggins in rebounds and assists. (Both players turn the ball over at a healthy rate, so that negative is a collective wash.)
Wiggins has all the time, ability and upside in the world. He still (probably) has a higher ceiling, which is why he snared a tie at No. 5.
But on paper, as of this writing, for the rest of 2015-16 I'd rather have LaVine.
4. Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic My 2014 rank: 6
The Tobias Harris trade that netted point guard Brandon Jennings was supposed to be deleterious to Payton's fantasy development. But the competition seems to have ignited something in Payton.
On draft night in 2014, I doled out a Rajon Rondo comp...standard operating procedure for an athletic point guard that can't shoot. But over his past five games -- minus a couple of rebounds -- Payton's produced in the neighborhood of early-vintage Rondo. He's notched two double-doubles while averaging 11.4 points, 8.6 assists, and 2.0 steals, while nearly chipping in a full 3-pointer.
3. Nerlens Noel, PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers My 2013 rank: 11
Note the 2013 ranking. I'm bending the rules and including Noel here...if anything, to give Sixers fans some hope. (Technically, this is his third season, but only the second where he's made it onto the court.)
In the midst of another tank-a-riffic season in Philadelphia, Noel has been a bright spot. He's modestly outperformed expectations averaging 10.3 pints, 8.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, and a gaudy 1.7 steals.
Jahlil Okafor is the better scorer. But Noel could end up being the better fantasy player thanks to his multi-categorical defensive upside.
2. Aaron Gordon, PF, Orlando Magic My 2014 rank: 7
How much impact did the Tobias Harris trade have on Gordon's fantasy outlook for 2016-17? I briefly considered putting Gordon at No. 1 on this list. Gordon snared some Blake Griffin comps coming out of the 2014 draft. Since Harris left for Detroit, Gordon's started to back those comps up.
What's the ceiling here? From a fantasy perspective, Gordon could end up being better than Blake Griffin.
Stay with me here. Gordon matches Griffin's 20 PPG potential. His double-digit rebounds. He's looking like he has some of Griffin's special (for a PF) assists potential. But Gordon could offer even more. Blocks. Steals. And 3s.
Oh, and he's also rather exemplary at dunking the basketball.
1. Jabari Parker, SF/PF Milwaukee Bucks My 2014 rank: 1
Better late than never. Over the past 15 days, Parker has averaged 7.16 player rater points. That's top-30 fantasy production.
When touting Parker in my 2014 draft column, I threw out a Carmelo Anthony comp. And minus a reliable-but-still-emerging 3-point shot, that comp is actually starting to look somewhat prescient.
Parker's a little off the NBA radar. He's been hurt. He plays in Milwaukee. But make no mistake: Parker is arriving right before our eyes.
When projecting a fantasy star leap for an NBA player, I like to look at free throw performance. Is the player getting to the line and converting at a star pace? At a .780 clip, Parker is converting his opportunities at a star percentage. But at just 2.6 attempts per game, Parker needs to get to the line more often.
I think you'll see Parker use the rest of the 2015-16 to chip away at that small statistical issue, while molding the rest of his game into top-40 form.
Forget what Parker's done in the past 15 days. How about the past five games? 22.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 0.4 3-pointers, .510 FG% and a gaudy .857 FT%.
Parker and Antetokounmpo are co-headlining what is looking to be one of fantasy's better duos for 2016-17.