"Sleeper" has absorbed a multitude of different definitions in the fantasy baseball world, from undervalued player to player worth much more than his ADP (average draft position) to late-round pick with upside. As an old-school player, I still prefer to think of a sleeper by its true dictionary definition:
Someone or something unpromising or unnoticed that suddenly attains prominence or value.
To me, a true "sleeper" is a player practically no one expects to do a darned thing. These are players people would hardly notice, the types who, upon their selection in your league, would more than likely elicit a reaction or two of, "Who?!"
Now here's the fun part: This is my annual column identifying 12 deep sleepers, which can either help you in your deep-mixed or AL-/NL-only drafts or could become worthwhile pickups in shallow mixed teams in-season, but it is paradoxical in nature. By mentioning and familiarizing you with their names, these players' profiles become raised and they're potentially less likely to fit the description of being relative unknowns.
That said, they're all still highly unlikely to be drafted in many ESPN standard leagues, if any, and frankly they probably shouldn't be except as a dart throw with your final pick if their profiles speak to you. Chances are, each will still cost you practically nothing in your drafts, as illustrated by their accompanying price tags from the recent League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR, auctioned March 3-4) and Tout Wars (auctioned March 17) auctions. (Note: Tout Wars uses on-base percentage in place of batting average in its Rotisserie 5x5 seasonal scoring system.)
As always, my goal with these picks is for the players to provide at least $10 of fantasy value in "only" leagues. Here we go!
Steven Duggar, OF, San Francisco Giants
We're six days from Opening Day, and Duggar remains in Giants camp. Considering his name was floated as a candidate to start in center field as far back as Thanksgiving, he might well emerge in that prominent role. Even if Duggar begins in the minors, it's clear his arrival in San Francisco is imminent. From a prospect perspective, he's a lot more interesting than his seemingly glove-and-speed profile, having shown uncharacteristic lift on the ball for the first time last season. Duggar's fly-ball rate in the minors was 42.7 percent, and while it's easy to play it down because it came in a 44-game sample, he's showing some pop this spring as well, with four homers in 45 at-bats. He could sneak his way into double digits in both homers and steals, and he's a walker, too, which helps those in leagues that reward for them.
Price points: Third-round reserve in LABR, $1 in Tout Wars.
Wilmer Difo, 2B/SS, Washington Nationals
His pedestrian 2017 stats have probably caused many to forget the fact he was quite the adept base stealer during his minor league days, including a 49-steal campaign in Class A ball in 2014 and an average of 41 per 162 games played in the professional ranks. Difo is a capable batsman, evidenced by his 84.3 percent career minor league contact rate, and a player the Nationals clung to dearly in their winter trade talks. He's also capable of playing all over the infield, on a team that has seen both Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner miss time due to injuries the past few years and has Daniel Murphy ticketed for the DL to begin the season. Difo should get more at-bats than your typical utility infielder, and with more experience he's likely to get more green lights.
Price points: $2 in LABR, $2 in Tout Wars (my bid).
Carl Edwards Jr., RP, Chicago Cubs
His inclusion is twofold: First, he possesses filthy stuff, between a 95.2-mph average fastball that was worth 12.5 runs above average per FanGraphs, 17th-best among 155 qualified relievers, and a 12-to-6 curveball that generated a 19.2 percent swinging-strike rate that ranked 12th-best among 87 pitchers who threw at least 300. Second, Brandon Morrow, the presumed Cubs' closer, has been no model of health throughout his big-league career, and he was heavily used the final four months of last season, including 14 appearances in 15 postseason games. Edwards' critics point out that his control has been inconsistent, and that's fair, but he has also seemingly improved it this spring, with zero walks in 26 batters faced and 48 strikes in 49 pitches thrown.
Price points: $4 in LABR, $1 in Tout Wars (my bid).
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Consider the Rays' announcement that they plan to use a four-man rotation good news for Eovaldi, because it increases the chances that he'll give you a solid number of innings in this, his first full season since recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has always been a hard thrower, routinely hitting 97-98 mph with his fastball, but it was the addition of a splitter during his stint with the New York Yankees that had him on the precipice of a significant breakthrough. So far, Eovaldi has shown no velocity loss this spring, and his 10 strikeouts compared to zero walks in 42 batters faced this spring are encouraging signs. If everything clicks, he could give you a top-60 starter's level of production for a price that's practically nothing.
Price points: $1 in LABR, $3 in Tout Wars.
Jack Flaherty, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals' rotation might be deep in numbers, but it's not necessarily so in terms of track record, with Michael Wacha having dealt with his share of injuries in the past, Miles Mikolas no lock to translate his success overseas into the same during his return stint in the U.S. and Adam Wainwright looking closer to the end than prime of his career. Flaherty is almost certain to see extended time in the team's big-league rotation, and once he arrives, he's going to be one of the better strikeout candidates of any young starter out there. His slider is positively filthy: After his Sept. 1 debut last season, he generated a 30.7 percent swinging-strike rate and .065 well-hit average with the pitch, which were third- and 25th-best of 91 pitchers who threw at least 75.
Price points: $3 in LABR, $4 in Tout Wars (my bid).
Wilmer Flores, 1B/3B, New York Mets
Nothing against Todd Frazier, a good signing by the Mets at a cheap price, but on raw skills alone, I think Flores probably would've been the Mets' most productive infielder in fantasy terms had he received the at-bats. He has boosted his isolated power and well-hit average in each of the past two seasons and posted back-to-back years of at least a 40 percent fly ball rate, and also made huge skills advances by batting .262/.306/.459 against right-handed pitching last season. Flores no longer deserves platoon treatment, and it's a shame the Mets haven't yet found a place to play him regularly. Wait, they might! After all, Adrian Gonzalez is coming off an awful 2017 and not-much-better spring, and Dominic Smith has been limited by injury all spring.
Price points: $3 in LABR, $3 in Tout Wars.
Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Not that I object to the Pirates' acquisition of Corey Dickerson, which was worthwhile considering its dirt-cheap price, but it was a shame to see them block Frazier's wide-open chance at claiming the left-field job. Nevertheless, Frazier does have a few paths to at-bats, between second and third base and the corner infield spots, and it's a reasonable guess to assume that he'd take over at the former should Josh Harrison get traded. Frazier brings some of the best contact-hitting skills of anyone in baseball, with 86.0 percent contact and 12.6 percent strikeout rates last season, giving him excellent odds of a batting average in the .280-.290 and on-base percentage in the .350-.360 ranges. While he's not much of a power hitter, that could be enough to vault his stolen base total into the teens (or perhaps even twenties).
Price points: $2 in LABR, $2 in Tout Wars.
Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins
He has posted ERAs higher than five in back-to-back seasons of at least 25 starts, and has a career mark of 4.70 in 127 starts, so he's an easy name to discard. Gibson, though, has never seemed to lean as heavily upon his slider and changeup, his two best pitches, as he should. Strangely, it was more reliance upon his four-seam fastball during the second half of last season, including boosting its average velocity to 92.7 mph, that planted the seeds of a potential 2018 breakthrough. (Slightly greater usage of his slider did help, though.) Gibson managed seven quality starts, a 3.76 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 22.1 percent strikeout rate in 13 turns after the All-Star break, and so far this spring he seems to be carrying that over, including posting a 1.80 ERA in his three starts. This could be a "Fool me once/fool me twice" scenario, but I trust my scouting and think a long-range viewpoint is smart.
Price points: $1 in LABR, $2 in Tout Wars.
Tommy Kahnle, RP, New York Yankees
Among the clear non-closers, the ones I think stand minimal chance of recording even five saves, Kahnle pops off the page as the highest-upside arm of the current setup crop. Thanks to shortening his leg kick last season, he slashed his walk rate by more than half (6.6 percent, compared to 13.4 percent in his professional career entering the season), and boosted his average fastball velocity for the third consecutive year (to 97.9 mph on average). If you watched this guy during the postseason, you saw how filthy his stuff, which could be good enough to vault him to the 100-strikeout plateau. By the way, the bloated price point in LABR illustrates just how much I like him, though had he gone a few rounds later in that auction, he'd have surely cost $1-2.
Price points: $4 in LABR (my bid), first-round reserve in Tout Wars.
Chad Pinder, SS/OF, Oakland Athletics
The "launch angle revolution" was a popular topic of the past calendar year, and while you know many of the obvious candidates (Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison and Justin Smoak, to name three), Pinder was one of the more beneath-the-radar such types. During the season's first half, before a hamstring injury cost him more than a month's time around mid-year, Pinder elevated his launch angle from 9.2 degrees in 2016 to 13.8 degrees, while lowering his ground-ball rate from 50.0 percent to 34.7 percent, and he bumped his well-hit average to a healthy .238. This largely explained how he was able to sock eight homers in a 31-game span at one point, but the forgettable second half of his year has caused him to since be forgotten. As someone the Athletics can play almost anywhere, however, Pinder plays an important role for a team that loves to mix and match its lineups, and he could provide a sneaky 20-plus homers while netting eligibility at even more positions than his current shortstop/outfield.
Price points: $4 in LABR, $3 in Tout Wars.
Nick Pivetta, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
I can hear your reaction now: "This guy was horrible last year!" Yes, he was, but beneath Pivetta's 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, which were sixth- and 17th-worst among 122 pitchers who made at least 20 starts, were ghastly "luck"-category rates of a .336 batting average on balls in play, 67.1 left-on-base percentage and 12.3 percent home run/fly ball rate. Few pitchers could claim such poor fortune on batted balls, something that should correct this year, though his strikeout rate is also likely to drop somewhat to correct for a low swinging-strike rate as well as a more so-so number during his minor league career. Pivetta's slider is his key to success, but it might on its own be enough for him to provide value: It was worth 2.3 runs above average per FanGraphs, and generated a 18.7 swinging-strike percentage (the league's average was 16.9) and .078 well-hit average that was 20th-best among 153 pitchers who threw at least 300.
Price points: $1 in LABR, $1 in Tout Wars.
Drew Robinson, 3B/OF, Texas Rangers
His ceiling might be the lowest of any of the 12, but his role is among the more secure of the bunch, considering he's the Rangers' likely starter in left field against right-handers (at least at the season's onset) after the team demoted Willie Calhoun. Robinson has never been regarded much more than a utility prospect, but he brings an underrated mix of pop and speed, having averaged 19 home runs and 16 stolen bases per 162 career games as a professional with .189 isolated power. He also walks a lot -- 14.0 percent rate as a pro -- and was more apt to hit the ball in the air in the minors than during his 48-game stint for the Rangers last season, having posted 46.6 and 45.3 percent rates in Double- and Triple-A ball, something that would enhance his power potential if he brings it to Globe Life Park.
Price points: Undrafted in LABR, second-round reserve in Tout Wars.
Other deep sleepers to consider: Albert Almora Jr., Harrison Bader, Corbin Burnes, Nate Karns, Dominic Leone, Keynan Middleton, Sal Romano, Drew Steckenrider, Robert Stephenson, Matt Strahm, Blake Swihart, Brandon Woodruff.