In the not-so-old days, talent evaluators relied on their eyes and stopwatches to grade college prospects. They still do, but now they have a supplementary source of information at their disposal -- analytics.
On Monday, general manager Mike Maccagnan revealed that analytics have played a significant role in the New York Jets' draft preparation. Previously, the organization downplayed its usage of analytics in the scouting process. Now the Jets are looking to expand that department.
"Analytics, I think, is something that every team has used. We’re no different," Maccagnan said. "We’ve done quite a bit. We’ve used it both on the pro and the college side.
"As this expands a little bit, there may be other ways, whether it’s coaching or scouting, to make ourselves more efficient or more effective at what we do," he continued. "We’re like every other team out there. We have an analytics staff and department, and I would think, as things move forward, we’d probably expand and grow that."
'Tis the season for reading between the lines, trying to decipher a team's draft intentions. If you look at the Jets' first-round decision through the prism of analytics, the favorite is Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield. His numbers are off the charts.
Football Outsiders recently published its QBASE ranking (QB-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience). It rates Mayfield as not only the top prospect in this draft, but as the fourth-best in the past 10 years. Only Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb are ranked ahead of Mayfield. Immediately behind him are Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning. Not bad company.
What is QBASE? According to Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, "It looks at college performance, experience and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career, according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. Fifty thousand simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities."
One of the big questions about Mayfield is whether he can make the adjustment from a spread offense, which generates a lot of easy throws, to a pro-style system. According to Pro Football Focus, Mayfield was eighth in the country in the number of "NFL throw" attempts -- and he produced the best grade on those attempts. The statistic is based on NFL-type routes and distances.
On the flip side, Mayfield didn't score particularly well on "tight window" throws. He attempted 68 and completed only 41 percent, compared t0 82 percent on 261 "clear window" throws, per PFF.
Obviously, some of this is subjective, but it gives teams a ton of information to consider -- maybe too much information. Welcome to the new sports landscape.