OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Cleveland Cavaliers will begin their pursuit of what has been a historically impossible feat -- trying to buck the 0-32 all-time combined record by teams that have fallen down 3-1 in the NBA Finals to come back to win it all -- by facing the Golden State Warriors without possibly their most important player, Draymond Green, in Monday’s Game 5.
Green's flailed arm aimed toward LeBron James' groin area late in Game 4 was upgraded to a flagrant foul after the fact Sunday, triggering a one-game suspension based on the amount of flagrant foul points he has accumulated in the 2016 postseason.
It's not just Green's emotional and physical presence the Warriors will miss, as he will be barred from Oracle Arena during the game. Nor will it be his personal statistical impact -- averaging 14 points, 9.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.3 blocks in the series -- that Golden State will have to compensate for.
His impact on the team through the Warriors 3-1 start has been dominant as Golden State is plus-53 in 81 minutes this series with Green at center and minus-24 in 111 minutes with every other lineup they've played, according to ESPN's Zach Lowe.
Green's absence, it stands to reason, would benefit the Cavs. However, Cleveland was reluctant to accept that assumption as fact.
"We still have to play," Cavs coach Tyronn Lue said before practice Sunday. "I mean, it doesn't mean anything because he's suspended. They still have a great team, and we have to come out and play basketball. We can't worry about the suspension."
James took it a step further, pointing to Golden State's success without two-time MVP Stephen Curry this postseason as evidence that the Warriors are more than capable of masking the fact that Green will be missing.
"For our team, we know how dangerous they are no matter who's in the lineup," James said. "I mean, obviously we saw what they were able to do without Steph for two weeks, playing against Houston and playing against Portland. Those guys still complement each other, no matter who's out on the floor."
Whether the Cavs want to acknowledge the Warriors as a weakened opponent or not, there are several tactical side effects to Green's absence that will affect Cleveland's approach.
For starters, it could impact what Lue does with his starting lineup. After starting Richard Jefferson in place of Kevin Love in Games 3 and 4, he could go back to Love in Game 5 without the fear of him having to defend Green. With Andre Iguodala a probable starter in Green's place, Love probably would be guarded by Harrison Barnes, and would have a size advantage. Or Love could draw Andrew Bogut and would have a mobility advantage (fancy that!) -- depending on what Steve Kerr does with his defense.
It will be important for Cleveland to jump out early, as the Warriors were 39-2 at home in the regular season and have lost only one other game at Oracle in the playoffs. The crowd will surely be trying to support the team through Green's absence, while tasting a second consecutive title potentially just 48 minutes away come tipoff.
With Iguodala presumably moving from the bench unit, the Cavs also have to be ready for a variety of different lineups from Golden State's second string that they haven't seen before. James Michael McAdoo unexpectedly got real minutes in Game 4, and perhaps Leandro Barbosa (a DNP-CD on Friday) could find himself back in the rotation Monday.
The real challenge for Cleveland will be a mental one. Yes, they got a break by Green being out. But if the Cavs go into Game 5 believing that anything will be easier than it was in the past, they will set themselves up for failure.
"He brings a toughness to their team," Lue said. "We know that. He's the heart and soul of their team, but we've still got to play. His suspension doesn't make us win the game. We've got to go out and win the game and take the game. So it's a big suspension on their end, but we've still got to play."