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Could last four games impact David Montgomery's future with Bears?

David Montgomery has been a reliable, if not spectacular, back for the Bears, who must decide whether he'll be part of the rebuild beyond this season. AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

LAKE FOREST, Ill. – The Chicago Bears are expecting the return of a key offensive player in time for Christmas.

Over a month removed from landing on injured reserve with a hip injury sustained against the Detroit Lions, Bears running back Khalil Herbert is eligible to return ahead of Chicago’s Dec. 24 matchup with the Buffalo Bills.

“We’re excited about getting him back next week,” coach Matt Eberflus said. “He’s been hitting his max speeds, and his jumps look good and his power in his legs look great. So we’re excited for that.”

At the time of his injury, which came on Chicago’s final kick return in Week 10, Herbert was second on the team in rushing (643 yards) behind quarterback Justin Fields. His 6.0 yards per rush still ranks No. 1 among all running backs and fourth overall behind Fields and quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.

Herbert will return to a backfield that has been carried by his running mate David Montgomery, with limited contributions from Darrynton Evans and Trestan Ebner. Montgomery is two yards shy of Herbert’s rushing output (641 yards) and they both have four rushing touchdowns despite Montgomery having played in two more games this season.

Montgomery is in a contract year, and his future with the Bears, whose previous regime drafted him in the third round in 2019, remains uncertain. There likely isn’t much more the 25-year-old running back can prove to this organization beyond what he’s already done.

Montgomery led the Bears in rushing in each of his first three seasons and has not missed time because of significant injuries. He’s played the fourth-most snaps of any Bears skill player while averaging 54.3 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per rush.

His future in Chicago hinges on first-year general manager Ryan Poles’ philosophy when it comes to paying running backs top dollar or retooling the position with younger, less expensive players via the draft.

If Montgomery hits free agency, he’ll be part of a loaded group of running backs looking to sign new deals. It’s a group headlined by Josh Jacobs, whose fifth-year option was not picked up by the Las Vegas Raiders during the offseason. Jacobs has turned in league-best numbers during his contract year, leading the league with 1,402 rushing yards. His 11 rushing touchdowns and 346 receiving yards rank second among all running backs.

Saquon Barkley (1,083 rushing yards), Miles Sanders (1,068) and Tony Pollard (894) are also pending free agents. Montgomery ranks eighth in rushing among the 2023 UFA class, which will make it difficult for him to sign a lucrative new deal that will rank at the top of his position group. That could make it appealing for the Bears to keep him in the fold given the team’s estimated $130.9 million in cap space, per Roster Management, for 2023.

Montgomery’s closest statistical comparison, according to Spotrac, is Tampa Bay’s Leonard Fournette, who signed a three-year, $21 million extension with the Bucs last March. In the two seasons prior to signing his extension, Fournette played 81.82% of games, averaged 43.67 rushing yards per game, 3.89 receptions per game and 0.52 rushing TDs per game.

Over his last two seasons with the Bears, Montgomery has played 82.76% of games while averaging 59.54 rushing yards per game, 2.63 receptions per game and 0.42 rushing TDs per game.

Where Montgomery has proven his value to the Bears most this season came is in the passing game, where he’s averaged a career-high 9.8 yards per catch. During the spring, Eberflus said he wanted to stretch Montgomery’s role in this area, which has allowed the running back to expand his versatility.

“He’s done a good job of catching the ball out of the backfield,” Eberflus said. “Certainly, we want more production. We always do from our backs because we think it’s a viable option to throw the ball to your tight ends and backs in the low part of the field. But he’s done a really good job. And I can say he’s a different runner than Khalil. He’s more of a strong, power, slasher guy that breaks tackles and does a nice job of leaning forward, and he’s grown that way. He’s continuing to do a good job.”

The Bears’ philosophy with their running back room is rooted in having different styles of rushers contribute in different ways. What Herbert showed Chicago’s new brass during his second season could pave the way for him to take over Montgomery’s role next year with Ebner becoming Chicago’s RB2.

“The viewpoint on running backs is not very high, at least what I’ve noticed,” Ebner said. “They think we’re interchangeable, but there’s a lot of guys like David where they can go out and play every down and be a threat. I think running backs are undervalued because we do so much, especially when you get a guy that can do all three or four things -- run, catch, block and return, too.”