FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Smith knows people outside his franchise want to panic. He, though, is not.

In his second season, he has a plan for pretty much everything.

The Falcons, despite three losses in four weeks, remain firmly in the race in the NFC South, a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While the Bucs have won two in a row, the topsy-turvy nature of the NFL means Atlanta -- at 4-6 with a remaining strength of schedule of .426, one of the easiest remaining in the NFL -- is still a division contender.

“We're right in the middle of it, not where we want to be,” Smith said. “But the reality is you're right in the middle of a playoff race with a conference opponent coming in here and a game we need to win."

In the preseason, the Falcons were picked by many to be one of the worst teams in the league. That the Falcons are here is a testament to what Smith and his staff have been able to do with a roster that began the season with the most dead money in the NFL. Sunday’s opponent, Chicago, has since overtaken the Falcons after trading Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.

While expectations shouldn’t necessarily change because a team is overperforming, they have. Which leads to examining what has been going wrong over the last few weeks and whether it is fixable.

The pass rush

While much will be made of the quarterback situation (we’ll get to that), Atlanta’s biggest issue is the one it entered the season with: A pass rush that isn’t quite delivering.

For the second straight season, the Falcons are toward the bottom of the NFL in sacks (13, ranked 31st), opposing QB pressure rate (18.4, ranks last) and percentage of time they are making contact with opposing quarterbacks (14.5, ranks last).

Atlanta’s pass rush win rate of 39.8% is No. 22 in the league, so that’s slightly better, but it’s still not good.

“If you lose a game then there's certainly a critical third down or two that yeah, sure, you wish you could get him off the spot or get the ball out quicker,” Smith said. “At times on Thursday night [against the Panthers], just take that game and we had chances on third down and we didn't come up with the interceptions, and things that we forced some throws into."

The Falcons, during the first five weeks of the season, were opportunistic when they did get to the quarterback, with pressure leading to game-sealing interceptions against Seattle and Cleveland and the sack-that-wasn’t against Tampa Bay. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, who leads Atlanta with 4.5 sacks and 11 quarterback hits, has been particularly effective.

The edge rusher group, revamped in the offseason, has not delivered consistently. Rookie second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie, who has shown promise, leads the Falcons with a 6.2 pressure percentage, tied for No. 90 in the NFL among qualifying defenders. Atlanta’s third-round pick, DeAngelo Malone, gets pressure 11.1 % of the time, but has been in on only 45 pass rushes.

The solution might not come this year. Ebiketie, who has nine quarterback hits and 1.5 sacks, and Malone have shown potential. As they improve, the pass rush could as well. Lorenzo Carter, signed during the offseason, has 2.5 sacks, second on the Falcons. He showed last season he can get hot in the second half with five sacks in the final four games.

Atlanta could blitz more from the secondary, and the return of cornerback A.J. Terrell should offer better coverage, which could allow defensive coordinator Dean Pees to do more.

The quarterback/pass protection

This has been a large question over the last week after two rough outings from quarterback Marcus Mariota, but don’t expect a switch to Desmond Ridder in the short term. There are things Mariota does well (how he handles pre-snap, running the ball) and things that have been difficult -- downfield passing, where he’s taking 16.9% of his chances but completing only 25% of passes that are 20 air yards or more.

Mariota has made mistakes -- both he and Smith acknowledged there were times he was trying to do too much against the Panthers -- but it goes beyond Mariota.

“You're seeing a couple of plays where certainly you can put blame on him,” Smith said. “But there's also plenty of blame to go around.”

Some of that has been low snaps -- Smith specifically mentioned that Monday. Teams also have blitzed Mariota on 33.1% of his dropbacks and Atlanta has allowed pressure 34.9% of the time, ahead of only Tennessee, the Giants and Chicago.

To understand what Mariota brings, think of what Smith is looking for in his quarterback.

“Operating would be No. 1, things we ask them to do at the line of scrimmage, can you handle situational football, third down, two-minute, all of those things,” Smith said. “Clearly, if you were going to be a team that dropped back 50 times, you’d make sure there are some other characteristics that you’d probably lean into more, but where we’re at as a program and as a team, guys that can keep us efficient and consistent and that’s what we look for every week.”

In the totality of the offense, Mariota has largely done that. Atlanta is No. 10 in offensive efficiency (54.94) according to ESPN Stats & Information, and was No. 8 prior to Thursday night’s loss. The Falcons are eighth in third-down percentage (43.2) and red zone touchdown percentage (61.3). Situationally, Mariota has managed the offense well.

Whether Mariota is the long-term answer is a different question. For what the Falcons are trying to do amid a playoff race, Mariota has hung around, led well and been a threat with his legs. He’s fifth in yards per rush (5.51) among qualifying quarterbacks and seventh in rushing yards (347).

At some point, it’s conceivable the Falcons could turn to Ridder, their third-round pick this year, but it’s a tougher move to make while the team is still realistically in a playoff race.

The Kyle Pitts connection

Of all the criticism of Mariota, the biggest contention might his lack of chemistry with second-year tight end Kyle Pitts.

While Pitts’ targets are close to last year -- he has 53 in nine games this year and had 110 in 17 games in 2021 -- he’s off-pace in receptions and yards while also running around nine fewer routes per game. In a different offensive scheme, he has taken in more target share this year (29.8 versus 22.7) but is catching only 47.2% of his targets versus 61.8% last season. Remember, Pitts is being asked to do more this year as a full-fledged tight end.

One of the issues, Smith said, is route timing between Pitts and Mariota.

“I’d be discouraged if it was one thing where a guy wasn’t necessarily productive, when in man, not just zone but I don’t think that’s necessarily been the case,” Smith said. “There’s a lot of things, sometimes it’s been a comedy of errors, timing’s been sped up, maybe it’s the pressure, maybe it’s the ball comes out quick, you don’t get into a clean pocket, or we have missed him."

When Mariota has targeted Pitts, it has been on deep shots (20 or more air yards) 28.3% of the time. Mariota has been blitzed on 39.6% of the dropbacks where he targeted Pitts, pressured 28.3% of the time and been off target 26.4%.

Mariota has said multiple times he needs to give Pitts more opportunities. The targets have been there, even if the production hasn’t come. The last three games, Pitts has been targeted seven or more times each week.

Pitts has had only two games with more than three catches and 30 yards this season -- wins against Seattle (five receptions, 87 yards) and Carolina (5-80). But if Mariota continues to throw to him, it’s reasonable to think it will eventually turn.

Third-down defense

Pees defended his team’s third-down play last week before Thursday night’s game against the Panthers. But the truth is that the Falcons have struggled. Some weeks, it has been explosive plays. Others, it has been first- and second-down issues leading to short third-down conversions. But the Falcons are No. 29 in the NFL in third-down defense (46.6%), ahead of only Las Vegas, Chicago and Detroit.

“We have to do better on third down,” Pees said before the loss to Carolina. “The simple answer is we need to play better coverage or we need to get to them on the pressure.”

The biggest thing has been consistency. Atlanta has been much better at home (39.1%) than on the road (53.6%) on third downs. The second quarter (62.2%) has been the biggest issue, the only quarter above 44%. How big a problem depends on the week. The Falcons have vacillated between 40% or better and 50% or worse every week since Week 3.

So if the Falcons can find some improvement on third down, it could solve a lot of their defensive issues. It’s no coincidence Atlanta’s three best third-down defense days came in three of the team’s four wins.