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Piecing together a Matt Ryan deal: $100M guaranteed with no hometown discount

The last word from the Atlanta Falcons regarding a contract extension for quarterback Matt Ryan was that there is no timetable for getting a deal completed.

Joel Corry, a former NFL agent and current contract/cap analyst for CBS Sports, has heard those words before.

"When the Falcons say, 'There's no timetable,' that means, 'As far as we're concerned right now, Matt Ryan is asking for too much money,'" Corry said.

Ryan's agent, Tom Condon, also couldn't "characterize the timetable" when reached by ESPN last week. However things proceed from here, Corry foresees an extremely lucrative payday for Ryan, especially in the wake of the $84 million fully guaranteed contract Kirk Cousins secured in a three-year deal with the Minnesota Vikings.

"After Cousins, since he's got $84 million guaranteed at signing, Ryan's going to have to have at least $85 million guaranteed at signing, and probably $100 million in overall guarantees," Corry said. "Ryan had $42 essentially fully guaranteed at signing last time and $59 in overall guarantees. Is that really that much of a stretch when you put it in that context of when the cap was $123 million?"

The guaranteed money is what matters in the big picture, though folks often point to average per year. Cousins heads that group at $28 million per year based on the shorter length of his contract. He is followed by San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo at $27.5 million per year, Detroit's Matthew Stafford at $27 million per year and New Orleans' Drew Brees at $25 million per year.

"If I'm Condon, that $30 million per year mark for Ryan is important, even though it's kind of meaningless in the overall scheme of things," Corry said. "I'd like to be able to say I had the first $30 million per year quarterback, particularly since Condon had the first $20 million per year quarterback in Brees.

"And personally, I'd wait until [Green Bay's] Aaron Rodgers. But if I'm doing it before Rodgers -- I'm assuming Rodgers is going to put the bar way out there -- so if you're going to do it today, it's got to be at $30 million per year just to get my attention."

Falcons owner Arthur Blank never committed to making Ryan the highest-paid player in the league, though Blank said the one-time MVP would be in a competitive range. But the team doesn't have much of an argument if Ryan is being compared to the other quarterbacks who have recently signed deals, Corry said.

"The Falcons' best argument is, 'We've got other people to take care [of],'" Corry said. "What else can they say? They can't say, 'Well you haven't achieved the things as these other highly paid quarterbacks have.' How many playoff wins does Kirk Cousins have? Zero. How many playoffs wins does Matt Stafford have? Zero. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't even started a full season yet."

Condon, who represents both Stafford and Brees, secured $92 million guaranteed for Stafford in a five-year extension in September. And the fact that Brees took a hometown discount to remain in New Orleans most likely has Condon pushing for a different outcome with Ryan.

"Here's why I don't think Matt Ryan is taking a discount: His boy is Stafford, and Stafford didn't take a discount," Corry said. "You think he wants to hear from his boy about how he took a discount?"

Here are some other elements Corry pieced together related to how Ryan's extension might come together:

Length of contract: Ryan has one year and $19.25 million left on the five-year extension he signed in July 2013, so it essentially was a six-year deal. "He's 32, 33, so he's not quite in the Cousins' position where I don't think it's going to be something where you add two years so you have three years total and all three are fully guaranteed," Corry said. "I think it's going to be more along the lines of what those quarterbacks around the same age did a couple years ago with Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. They all signed four-year extensions. So I expect it to be a four- or five-year extension."

Bonuses: Ryan's last contract included a $28 million signing bonus and $12 million option bonus built into the second year. Corry sees the same thing happening this time. "That's their preferred structure," Corry said. "I don't really like it from a team standpoint because if you make a mistake like you did with [Sam] Baker, then you're going to have a lot of dead money from the acceleration of both the signing bonus and the option bonus. That's why, from a team standpoint, I don't like it. I love it from a player standpoint because it makes it harder for you to get cut. You don't see a whole lot of teams using that concept anymore."

Clearing cap space: Much was made of the Falcons and Ryan not coming to terms before the start of free agency, which most likely would have cleared cap space since Ryan's cap hit is $21.65 million. Corry doesn't think it would have mattered all that much in relation to the free-agent market. "You were already a good team, so you didn't need to be out there in on [the] spending spree in free agency," Corry said. "Even if you picked up $10 million in cap room by doing his extension before free agency, you still weren't going to be in a position to go shopping in the high-rent district. You weren't ever going to be in the position to do that no matter when you did his extension. You have priorities that aren't related to free agency. You've got extensions you need to start taking care, especially with these young defensive players [Grady Jarrett, Ricardo Allen, Vic Beasley Jr.]."