While the UFL is a new league, that doesn't mean we don't have some knowledge that can prove useful for bettors looking to make a couple smart bets. Daniel Dopp and Matt Willis are here to break down what you need to know about betting on Week 3 of the UFL. Check back every Friday as Daniel and Matt take you all the way through to the UFL championship game on June 16.
All odds by ESPN BET.
Willis: Daniel, I hope you're able to flex those remote-handling fingers and find a way to balance the multitude of things to watch this spring. Through the NBA and NHL playoffs, Draft season and the mystery of "Who Is Future Bluey's Baby's Father?" of the season three "Bluey" finale, we're getting some pretty compelling storylines in the United Football League.
Dopp: Can you believe we made it? It feels like we just started and we're already five games into the season. Outside of my Michigan Panthers cooking, was there anything that stood out to you last week in the UFL?
Willis: Two major storylines played out for me in Week 5. First of all, all four road teams won and covered as favorites.
Dopp: ROAD DAWGS UNITE!
Willis: Second, is the rest of the season just ceremonial so we can get to the Birmingham Stallions vs. St. Louis Battlehawks championship game? The Stallions and Battlehawks both won their games by 33 and 23 points respectively. We liked a single-game parlay with the Stallions and the over last week. The total opened and closed at 40.5, but it was 42.5 when we wrote this column. Of course, there were 41 points scored in the game, with just six in the second half.
Dopp: Honestly, I was fuming that we only got six points in the second half and missed on the over. Tough beat, but I'm with you on both of these teams being the best of the best in the league right now. It does feel like we're watching two heavyweights slowly move towards the inevitable. I think I'd still have my futures money on the Stallions with the way Adrian Martinez has played, but AJ McCarron has clearly been the best passer this season and both teams are juggernauts.
Willis: St. Louis lost in Week 1, but have won four straight games since and have increased their scoring each week. The Battlehawks can't top 45 points this week, right?
Dopp: Willis, if they top 45 points this week and still don't hit the over, I'm out.
Willis: Haha! Well, first things first, (lights lower, spotlight focuses in), I come to you this week a subdued, browbeaten version of myself. My dinner? A crow filet with a slice of humble pie for dessert. I badmouthed the Michigan Panthers defense last week, and they put up 35 points and ran for 160 yards in a double-digit win over the Memphis Showboats.
Dopp: My Panthers don't quit! Even without E.J. Perry, Danny Etling and that ground game, plus Kai Nacua and that defense kept Michigan in it. I recognize the Panthers aren't the most talented team in the league, but they play with a grit and toughness I swear I've seen before (hello Dan Campbell) and they have a pretty stout rushing attack.
Willis: Sometimes, you can't overthink these things. This matchup is straight strength vs. weakness. Michigan is second in the UFL with 110.8 rush yards per game (and if you're trailing Birmingham, there's no shame in that). The Renegades are last with 125.8 rush yards per game allowed, and gave up 190 last week. Arlington's friskier than their record shows, but I'm still liking the Panthers laying 3.5.
Dopp: I'm right there with you, Willis! Give me the 3.5 and let's get some more Jake Bates bombs in this one.
Willis: Now to the aforementioned Birmingham Stallions. The news there this week is it appears they're going to go with Adrian Martinez at QB over Matt Corral. While both have been good this season, the offensive has been exceptional with Martinez, the league's leading rusher. The Stallions averaged 32.5 PPG in his two starts this season, with both games going over. They average 22.3 PPG in Corral's starts, with all three going under.
Dopp: We talked about this on UFL Today last week, Martinez simply looks like the better QB to run this offense. He has got a huge arm with good enough accuracy to find his guys all over the field, and his legs are a cheat code that helps to extend drives and pick up huge chunks of yardage. I don't love the 2-QB system with the interruption of the offensive flow, so I'm hoping the Stallions stick with Martinez and let him do his dirty work.
Willis: Memphis hasn't reached 20 points in a game this season, but have allowed north of 30 in their last 3 games, with all three going over. I'm going to follow this trend and take the over 43.
Dopp: You know I'm following suit. Already have the ticket in my hand. Let's talk one more game before we pivot to a few of your favorite props this week.
Willis: Road favorites are 8-5 ATS in the UFL this season (9-4 straight-up). San Antonio's only laying a point on the road against the D.C. Defenders this week (although that line might move against the Brahmas). The Defenders are 2-3 this season, but the two wins came over Houston/Arlington (a combined 1-9) by a combined six points. Meanwhile, D.C. is 0-3 against other teams with a -16.7-scoring differential per game. Sure, that's weighted by a 33-point loss last week. But on the other hand (grabs you by shoulders) -- They lost by 33 at home last week. Give me the Brahmas -1 while you can still get that number.
Dopp: Oh wow, I realized the Defenders had struggled, but seeing their two wins came against teams with a combined 1-9 record, there's not a lot to brag about in Washington D.C. Matt, you're not just given out over/unders here, we've got player props at the ESPN BET now and you've picked a handful that look fun this week. Give the people what they want and hand out some player props, Willis.
Willis' player prop picks for Week 6
AJ McCarron (STL): over 195.5 Pass yds
McCarron's hit at least 213 yards in four of five games this season, and last week, even in a blowout, threw for 213 yards on just 24 attempts. Sure, Adrian Martinez went for only 155 last week against Houston, but he also ran for 138 yards, and that's not McCarron's game. Case Cookus, Jordan Ta'amu and E.J. Perry all throw for 200 yards against Houston this season, and I think McCarron won't struggle too either.
Wes Hills (MICH): over 51.5 Rush yds
Last week, San Antonio had a pair of backs go for 95 and 84 rush yards against Arlington. This week, they face the league's second-leading rusher in Hills. Hills has double-digit carries in three of five games this season, and I expect the Panthers to keep leaning on him while Danny Etling is in at QB.
Daewood Davis (MEM) over 50.5 Rec yds
Memphis looks like they're going back to Case Cookus for this week, which is unfortunate for Davis, who got 16 targets from Troy Williams last week. Still, I expect Memphis to have to throw a lot against Birmingham, so I'll take the over here.
Darius Victor (MEM) under 23.5 Rush yds
This is a pretty low total, and Victor averages 26.2 rush yards per game this season. But last week he had nine carries for 17 yards, and had two rushes for a loss of one yard against Birmingham in Week 3. Birmingham hasn't allowed a player to reach 35 rush yards in a game this season, with Houston's two lead backs (T.J. Pledger IV and Mark Thompson) going for 10 carries for 26 yards combined last week.
Dopp: This is why you're the best. Great insight and analysis as well, Matt. Appreciate you my friend.
If you still want more UFL content on top of this, check out Daniel Dopp, Skubie Mageza and Joe Gioia every Sunday night at 6:30 p.m. ET for the definitive UFL recap show! UFL Today will bring fans the top moments from the weekend, with game highlights, airing live on ESPN's YouTube, Facebook and the ESPN App, in most cases following the last game of the weekend.
Follow Dopp and Willis on X, formerly Twitter @danieldopp and @WillisOnNascar.