Can you believe we're a third of the way through the 2023 regular-season experience? Time is flying!
That tends to be the case when you're winning. Right, Daniel? My props partner (and his home team) have brought the heat this season. DD cashed two of his three tickets last week (tough break on David Montgomery's early exit).
Meanwhile, another one of my Baltimore bets busted (but that won't stop me from going back to the well this week) and Joshua Palmer proved worthy of the hype (while Quentin Johnston did not). At least James Cook bounced back, though.
The upcoming weekend is a bit murky. We've got six teams on bye and numerous quarterbacks banged up. It's not the most exciting slate with just one game projected over 50 points (Miami at Philadelphia).
Some would argue, however, that the best way to spice up an underwhelming lineup is to sprinkle in a little action. Consider Daniel and I the Week 7 hype crew. Let's get to it.
QB Props
Desmond Ridder UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns (at Tampa Bay)
Daniel: Ridder has been strong the past two weeks, throwing for over 635 yards in that span. But one thing he's not doing is throwing touchdown passes. Last week was his first game this year with multiple passing touchdowns. Now, he did throw two TDs against this Bucs' defense last year in a meaningless Week 18 game, but there's little reason to expect that to happen again. The Bucs have allowed the third-fewest touchdowns this season, surrendering only eight through six games. I know that Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins hit two passing touchdowns against this Bucs team, but they're the only ones to make it happen this season and this Ridder-led Falcons team isn't even close to either of those offenses. The Lions and Vikings are third and fourth in passing yards per game and the Falcons are 18th. I know that's not a TD stat but the more teams throw the better chance they have of scoring passing touchdowns. Pretty simple, right?
RB Props
Latavius Murray anytime TD (at New England)
Liz: Ugly tickets pay out the same as pretty ones. Murray managed 12 carries to Cook's 14 in the Bills' win over the G-Men last week. While Cook is the team's RB1, Murray was more active in the red area of the field, managing four red zone rushes (to Cook's single attempt inside the 20-yard line). With Damien Harris sidelined and as 8.5 favorites over New England, Murray figures to log double-digit touches. I expect him to be used at the goal line, particularly considering Josh Allen's shoulder injury. Plus, the Pats have given up the sixth-most rushing scores (5) to running backs. I'll take the over on Murray falling into the end zone.
WR Props
Tyler Lockett OVER 55.5 receiving yards (vs. Arizona)
Liz: I'm targeting generous secondaries, and players on both the Cardinals and the Seahawks are due for some bounce-backs. Seattle's passing attack struggled last week at Cincinnati, but at least Lockett was efficient. The 31-year-old led the Seahawks' offense with eight looks, converting six of those opportunities for 94 yards. This week the matchup softens against a banged-up Cardinals secondary that's allowing the third-most yards (an average of over 199 receiving yards per week) to wideouts. He could also see a slight boost in volume with DK Metcalf working through a rib issue. Lockett figures to flirt with 60 yards.
Zay Flowers OVER 56.5 receiving yards (vs. Detroit)
Daniel: This one hurts a little bit since they're facing the Lions, but let's give Zay his Flowers (might as well call me Mike Clay with the hilarious dad jokes). Out of all of the first-round rookie WRs, Flowers is the only one to have found a significant role within his team's passing game from the jump. Flowers has eight or more targets in four of his six games and this Lions run defense is legit. Detroit has not given up 100 yards on the ground in all six of its games and while the Ravens won't abandon the run, I'm expecting to see Baltimore use him as an extension of the running game. Which should mean some cheap/easy high-value targets at or near the line of scrimmage. He'll still get his looks downfield as well, as he has all season, but right now the Ravens' passing attack is primarily two guys -- Flowers and Mark Andrews -- so give me the speedy rookie wide receiver on Sunday.
TE Props
Dallas Goedert OVER 39.5 receiving yards (vs. Miami)
Daniel: Both the Detroit Lions and I thank you very much for the roses, Liz! However, I'm not super thrilled about this Murray pick (as a James Cook fantasy manager) but I totally agree with the call. Cook isn't getting the goal line work and Murray just keeps hanging around.
There should be 600 points scored in this one by the time we reach the buzzer, and while all of the conversation is around former Titans castoff A.J. Brown, I'm looking at Dallas Goedert as the prop we're banking on. The narrative is easy to follow: Vegas has this as the only game to hit 50+ points, we expect Miami to continue its offensive barrage that will for require the Eagles to pass the ball to keep up. The Dolphins are giving up 52.5 receiving yards per game to the TE position, so there's enough headroom for me to smash this prop.
Mark Andrews OVER 52.5 receiving yards (vs. Detroit)
Liz: To Daniel's point, Andrews is second on his team in receiving yards, behind Zay Flowers. From a positional point of view, however, the 28-year-old ranks fifth among TEs in receiving yards per contest, averaging 58.8. While he's not regularly crushing deep looks, Andrews has managed four catches over 20 yards (an average of one per game). Meanwhile, the Lions have been generous over the middle, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards (61 receiving yards per week) to tight ends. Given Andrews' steady target share (23.3%, TE2), he figures to catch at least five balls for upward of 60 yards (and I'd bet on a TD, too).