The NBA has a Wednesday doubleheader featuring the Celtics trying to close out the Heat at home and the Clippers and Mavericks fighting for the series lead in a pivotal Game 5.
The Celtics are prohibitive favorites Wednesday despite the injury absence of Kristaps Porzingis, while the Mavericks are road favorites due in part to the injury absence of Kawhi Leonard.
Let's dig deeper into both matchups and identify some angles of interests in tonight's games.
Bam Adebayo OVER 20.5 points (-135). Rinse and repeat. Adebayo has been a metronome against the Celtics all season, averaging 22.7 PPG in seven games (three regular season, four playoffs) with between 19 and 27 points in each contest. He is coming off a 25-point effort in Game 4 and gets his points whether the Heat win or get blown out. Porzingis is likely out the rest of the series, so Adebayo will also be able to operate without fear of Porzingis' length and shot-blocking moving forward.
Jaylen Brown OVER 23.5 points (-110). Brown has sacrificed his scoring this season to make room for Porzingis to get his shots, but he's shown he can pick it back up again when the big man is out. In 19 games without Porzingis this season, Brown has averaged 25.0 PPG. He scored at least 27 points in all four games Porzingis missed in March and averaged a whopping 23.0 FGA in those games. I look for Brown to come out aggressive and put a big number on the board in tonight's game.
James Harden OVER 22.5 points (-105). Harden has stepped up his scoring big time in both games Leonard (out, knee) has missed in this series. In Game 1, Harden popped for 28 points, then in Game 4 he went for 33. The Clippers won both games. Harden has to be aggressive again on Wednesday, and he has good matchups. He has too much size for Kyrie Irving and too much technique and speed for Luka Doncic. It's all set up for Harden to have another big game at home on Wednesday.
Clippers and Mavericks OVER 208.5 points (-115). Leonard has played in two games this series and missed two games. In both games he played, the games were defensive-minded slugfests with point totals of 191 or fewer points. In the two games he missed, the Clippers scored at least 109 points and the Mavericks, after terrible starts to both games, came on late to put points on the board as well. Assuming the Mavericks can avoid a 16-point first quarter (like in Game 4) or an 8-point second quarter (like in Game 1), I look for both teams to put points on the board and go over the scoring mark on Wednesday. The BPI estimate has the projected total at 211.1 points for Game 5.
Projections and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Miami Heat at Boston CelticsEast 1st Round - Game 5
7:30 p.m. TD Garden, Boston
Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 46-36 (40-40-2)
Celtics: 64-18 (43-35-4)
Line: Celtics (-14.5) Total: 200.5
Money Line: Heat (+700), Celtics (-1100)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 9.3, straight up 78%, 203.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Heat: Jaime Jaquez Jr., (OUT - Hip); Terry Rozier, (OUT - Neck); Jimmy Butler, (OUT - Knee); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder)
Celtics: Kristaps Porzingis, (OUT - Calf)
Dallas Mavericks at LA ClippersEast 1st Round - Game 5
10 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Clippers: 51-31 (38-44-0)
Line: Mavericks (-3.5) Total: 208.5
Money Line: Mavericks (-150), Clippers (+125)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 3.8, straight up 63%, 211.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD - Knee); Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (OUT - Ankle); Tim Hardaway Jr., (OUT - Ankle); Greg Brown III, (OUT - Personal)
Clippers: Kawhi Leonard, (OUT - Knee)