Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night with the Green Bay Packers heading to Las Vegas to face the Raiders (-2, 45.5).
What can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum and Seth Walder are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
After a one-point win over the Broncos in Week 1, the Raiders have dropped three in a row. Are you surprised to see the Raiders as the favorites Monday night, and how are you betting this game?
Fulghum: I'm gonna take the Packers ML for a couple of reasons. First, they're coming off 10 days rest after losing Week 4 at home to the Lions on Thursday. The extra days should be extremely beneficial for RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson. Secondly, much like the environment the Raiders endured in Week 3 hosting Pittsburgh, I expect this to be a decidedly pro-Packers crowd at Allegiant Stadium. Green Bay fans travel just as well as Steelers fans so this will feel more like Lambeau than a road game. Packers also have a bye next week meaning this will be the only game they play in a 23-day window.
What is your favorite prop bet for this game?
Moody: Josh Jacobs over 72.5 rushing yards. The offensive and defensive lines tell you a lot about how a play is going. The Raiders' offensive line ranks 14th in run block win rate, while Packers' defensive front ranks near the bottom of the league in run stop win rate. Green Bay is allowing the third most rushing yards per game to opponents. David Montgomery's performance against the Packers defense on "Thursday Night Football" left us all in awe. There is a good chance that Jacobs will succeed on Monday, especially with Jimmy Garoppolo back under center. He's averaged 76.7 rushing yards per game in his career.
Walder: Maxx Crosby over 0.25 sacks (-110 at DraftKings). Crosby has played four sacks in four games, and I've got a very simple reason -- aside from Crosby's skill -- to believe that is likely to continue: he plays a ton. Crosby has played on 96% of the Raiders defensive snaps, the highest percentage among any player with at least 50 pass rushes this year entering Week 5. I make the fair price here -135.
Is there anything else you're playing Monday night?
Walder: Jimmy Garoppolo over 32.5 pass attempts (-111). My model projects Garoppolo to record 34.7 pass attempts, hence the over here. The Raiders' passing offense has been better than its rushing offense, and with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers at wideout, it would make sense for them to try to score through the air. The Raiders' defense has been so bad they'll probably need the points to keep up.