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Stand up, Australia: Super Rugby Pacific desperately needs unpredictability

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Challenges, Super Rugby Pacific faces a few.

In an increasingly competitive market, sport needs its drawcards front and centre to consistently captivate and sell its product.

With the abundance of choice available on streaming platforms and consumers discerning with their time and hard-earned cash, rugby faces a fight for survival particularly in the sweltering Australian sporting climate.

In New Zealand, too, while the All Blacks remain appointment viewing, Super Rugby has serious work to do to win back traditional supporters and lure casual fans. Gone are the days where rugby assumed pride of place by right.

Super Rugby chairman Kevin Molloy, in the hotseat a matter of months and already attempting to tackle a raft of challenges, spoke of the desire to reinvigorate engagement at this month's competition launch.

In a post-World Cup year, in the wake of New Zealand farewelling headline acts Richie Mo'unga, Sam Whitelock, Aaron Smith, Brodie Retallick, Shannon Frizell, Brad Weber, Leicester Fainga'anuku and Jack Goodhue among others, Super Rugby has been pillaged at the top end.

This year's competition is not helped, either, by Ardie Savea, Sam Cane and Beauden Barrett skipping the domestic season to bank the Japanese Yen. In terms of bums on seats, Savea and Barrett are among the most recognisable commodities.

And before a ball is kicked, shoulder surgery has robbed the pleasure of viewing Will Jordan's talent from fullback for the Crusaders.

A new era awaits new stars to emerge but, from a New Zealand perspective, the onus falls on established All Blacks Damian McKenzie, Jordie Barrett, Mark Tele'a, Rieko Ioane and Scott Barrett to perform much of the heavy lifting.

New Zealand Rugby's rest protocols that force coaches to spell All Blacks from two regular season matches further entrench teams' ability to field full-strength sides.

Entering its third year, Super Rugby Pacific desperately needs Australia to break their glass ceiling and genuinely threaten their Kiwi rivals.

While the Brumbies fly the flag after reaching last year's semifinals the five Australian teams collectively won six of 30 cross-over games to fuel apathy with these matches. In 15 attempts, Australian teams are also yet to win a trans-Tasman finals encounter.

Such a divide sits at the heart of igniting interest in both countries.

Of the 12 teams the reality is there's three, possibly four at a pinch, capable of winning this year's competition. That predictability is a major problem.

More success in Australia would encourage fans to jump on the bandwagon and support their own. More jeopardy in New Zealand would quell the overriding belief that Kiwi derbies are must watch fixtures while others largely garner a passing glance.

The backdrop to this year's competition is, therefore, more regeneration than reinvigorate.

The Wallabies, following their worst World Cup in history under Eddie Jones, must rapidly rebuild confidence and hope talent demands Joe Schmidt selects them.

All Blacks coach Scott Robertson, as he settles into the demanding national role, and his new-look coaching team have multiple vacancies to fill.

For all its fractures and faults, Super Rugby remains the next generation breeding ground.

Powerhouse midfielder Levi Aumua, after transferring from Moana Pasifika to the Crusaders, Hurricanes playmaker Ruben Love, Blues first-five Stephen Perofeta, Chiefs midfielder Quinn Tupaea and fullback Shaun Stevenson, Crusaders loose forward Cullen Grace and Blues No 8 Hoskins Sotutu are among those who will knock on Robertson's door.

Hurricanes halfback Cam Roigard offers one example of the ability to surge from the fringe to the All Blacks after a standout season catapulted him into the World Cup squad. Despite the hefty deflections and disruptive rest protocols New Zealand Rugby boss Mark Robinson projects the glass half full view that others will this season emulate Roigard's path.

"This is no different to any other cycle we've seen post World Cup," Robinson said. "We've got three returning All Blacks who are up in Japan. They've definitely earnt the ability to have a bit of time out and that policy is well understood with New Zealand rugby.

"At every juncture across the course of this competition we've seen the emergence of stars. We believe in our systems. We believe in our ability to create superstars. I've no doubt that by the end of the season we will see players that people are saying 'wow are they going to make the All Blacks'."

From the format to the number of teams near constant change has eroded Super Rugby's status in recent years.

Welcoming the Fijian Drua added another dimension - their maiden finals appearance last year in a season where they toppled the Crusaders proved a highlight. The Drua's breathless freedom and vibrant home atmosphere can't be compared to any other team.

Super Rugby, with a commission finally overseeing the competition, is now well placed to usher in progressive rules such as banishing the absurd offside kicking quirk; diminishing frustrating TMO influence and stoppages to prioritise speeding up the game.

Yet for every positive there is a counter. This year's overarching dark cloud comes in the form of the Melbourne Rebels and their date with dissolving at the end of the season. Faced with $20 million in debt and staff on four-month contracts, the Rebels seem destined to fold. Their fate is a shackle Super Rugby cannot afford dragging it down.

Moana Pasifika's future appears tenuous, too. While their coaching team that features Tana Umaga and Tom Coventry is significantly stronger, their roster remains thin on proven talent. Playing six home matches in different venues is not sustainable and no way to foster a fan base, either.

Starting the competition with the Chiefs hosting the Crusaders, in a rematch of last year's final, is the perfect way to launch this season.

Beyond that, though, Super Rugby needs a proliferation of upsets and unknown talent to emerge to distract from its ongoing red flag flaws.