As the NHL bye weeks kick off, we are about as close to the halfway point of the NHL season as we are going to get. Every team has played at least 40 of their 82 games, with the St. Louis Blues leading the way with 45 games played.
The approximate quarter pole for the season (by the same standards) was Nov. 22, when every NHL team had played between 19 and 23 games. I thought it would be revealing to divide the season into the two halves and sort the top-100 scoring leaders from each of the first two quarters of the 2017-18 season. After all, the sum total of a player's output does not give you the entire story.
As the biggest example of this, Brayden Schenn was tied for fourth in the league in scoring with 30 points in 22 games and carried a fantasy-friendly plus-19. But during the second quarter of this season, Schenn wasn't even among the top-100 scorers, posting just 13 points in 23 games and an even plus/minus. Even though he's been equaled by Marian Gaborik in fantasy production since Nov. 22, Schenn still looks awesome overall because of his scorching start to the season.
Kings of consistency
There were of a couple of close calls, but only three players were among the top 10 for scoring in both the first and second quarters of this season. To no one's surprise, Nikita Kucherov was second in scoring through Nov. 22 and has been seventh since that point. Jakub Voracek was tied for sixth among scorers in the first quarter and tied for 10th in the second quarter, despite being shifted off of the top line with Claude Giroux for much of that second quarter. Finally, Blake Wheeler was tied for ninth in the first quarter of the season and tied for 10th in the second quarter.
John Tavares was just shy of being in the top 10 on both lists, while Giroux, Nathan MacKinnon, Josh Bailey and Phil Kessel were within shouting distance.
Where did he go?
Aside from Schenn, there are a few other players who showed extremely well in the first quarter of the season, only to drop off the map for the next stretch. Injuries are a legitimate excuse for players like Jaden Schwartz, T.J. Oshie and Mika Zibanejad, but not everybody who missed the second quarter top 100 can say they have been less than 100 percent.
Blues forwards: St. Louis really, really misses Schwartz. He was injured a little bit after the quarter pole, so I'll move the splits to Dec. 10. Schenn had 36 points and a plus-24 in 30 games with Schwartz healthy and just seven points and a minus-7 in 15 games since. Paul Stastny, even though he played on a different line for the most part, had 21 points with Schwartz in the lineup and only has six in 15 games without him. Vladimir Tarasenko went from better than a point per game (31 points in 30 games) to scoring just 11 points in 15 games without Schwartz. For his part, Schwartz should have his ankle reevaluated in two weeks time. The original X-rays came back negative, so the hope is that six weeks on the shelf can have him back in the lineup soon.
Nazem Kadri, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: With 19 points in the first 22 games of the season, Kadri was outscoring the likes of Jack Eichel, Sidney Crosby and Patrik Laine back on Nov. 22. Since then, he's managed a measly five points in 19 games. I'm not giving up on Kadri here, as his stats have been impressive going back to last season, but he should obviously be on benches for the time being. There's a chance that Auston Matthews' extended absence in December contributed to Kadri's slump. While they don't play on a line together, not having a player like Matthews in the lineup allows opponents to focus their attention a lot more on the other Toronto lines.
Kevin Shattenkirk, D, New York Rangers: Shattenkirk's hitting-of-the-wall actually came about a week prior to Nov. 22. Since Nov. 15, Shattenkirk has six points in 24 games; prior to that date, he started the campaign with 17 points in 18 games. That's clearly a devastating drop in production for fantasy managers, and the slip has impacted his potential to rebound, as his average ice time dipped from 21:28 in October to just 18:49 in December. What started out looking like a career year has quickly transformed into a step back from the gains Shattenkirk made last season. For what it's worth, going back to 2006-07 with the Vancouver Canucks, Alain Vigneault's squads have never produced a 50-plus-point defenseman.
Where did he come from?
There were 140 total players on the list of the top-100 scorers for the first and second quarters of the season. That means there were 60 players who made both lists, plus 40 who only made the first quarter list and another 40 who only made the second quarter list.
Just as was the case above, there were players who only made the second quarter list because of injuries early in the season, including Patrice Bergeron, Mikael Granlund or Ryan Getzlaf, but plenty of the players on the second-quarter top-100 list were also perfectly healthy in the first quarter of the season.
Jonathan Marchessault, C/RW, Vegas Golden Knights: I was in the camp that said Marchessault's breakout last season was fueled by his role next to the dynamic duo of Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. That looked like solid reasoning when he started the season with a respectable, yet subdued six points in October. His game continued to ramp up, and Marchessault tied for third in league scoring during the second quarter of the season. His 28 points trail only MacKinnon and Giroux since Nov. 22. His connection on the ice with William Karlsson and Reilly Smith is admittedly surprising, but given the results from last season, there is more than enough evidence to buy in to his fantasy value.
Henrik Zetterberg, F, Detroit Red Wings: Hank had a rough start to the campaign with only 12 points in 21 games. There was little consistency with the lines, and it was looking like Father Time may have caught up with the 37-year-old veteran. But Zetterberg has found his traditional gear since Nov. 22, notching 17 points in 20 games. While the other winger sometimes alternates between different players, Zetterberg is skating regularly with Gustav Nyquist and is still leading the charge on the Red Wings' power play.
Danton Heinen, F, Boston Bruins: Heinen didn't even make the Bruins' roster to start the season and was in the AHL, but he made the most of injuries to the B's lineup early in the season, settling in on a scoring line. He has 20 points in 21 games since Nov. 22 and is locked in as a winger with a resurgent David Backes. Heinen is still available in 60 percent of ESPN leagues.
Forwards on the move
Joe Pavelski, C/RW, San Jose Sharks (up 14 spots to No. 64)
Speaking of turning a new leaf on the season, Pavelski has been on fire during the past month. It's almost like a switch was flipped for Pavelski at the league's quarter pole. Prior to Nov. 22, the perennial fantasy darling was disappointing managers with eight points in 19 games. He has 18 points in 21 games since then and is the 24th forward on the ESPN Player Rater over the past 30 days. His overall season pace is still trending well below where we all expected him to be, so it may be worth exploring trade offers to acquire his services.
Corey Perry, RW, Anaheim Ducks (up 38 spots to No. 73)
The Ducks tried to get cute with Perry's return on Saturday and skated him on the third line with Adam Henrique and Nick Ritchie in the first period. But down 2-0 to the Calgary Flames, Perry was back alongside Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell by the third period. That's where he'll likely end up more often than not, as the Ducks can ill afford to give Perry bottom-six ice time. His numbers are trailing what we'd like to see, but remember that Perry and Getzlaf have only played eight games together this season due to alternating trips to the injured reserve. Look for the Ducks' top duo to start doing damage again.
Reilly Smith, RW/LW, Vegas Golden Knights (up 18 spots to No. 137)
Smith has given us some solid fantasy campaigns in the past, but he really took a nosedive last season and wasn't on most fantasy radars after landing with the Golden Knights. As many members of this team have done this season, Smith has blown away any expectations of him. He's now two points shy of his point total from last season and would clear his career-best season (51 points in 2013-14) by 20 points at this pace. Chalk this up to exceptional chemistry on a line with Marchessault and Karlsson. The trio has recently surpassed the Tampa Bay Lightning's top line for the most goals together at even strength (25). Smith has barely cracked the 50 percent rostered threshold in ESPN leagues, so you may still have time to get him.
Defensemen on the move
Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Buffalo Sabres (up 21 spots to No. 148)
What was meant to be a season for Ristolainen to step into the spotlight has been a bit of a head-scratcher until the past few games. Through Dec. 27, Ristolainen was goalless and still in the single digits for assists in 28 games. His 25 power-play points and improved overall numbers last season suggested something much better this season. There are signs of life, though. In his past five games, Ristolainen missed the scoresheet only once (and it's partly because he was ejected in the first period against the Minnesota Wild), scored his first two goals of the season and picked up six points (three of them on the power play). Corner turned? If your league is among the 25 percent where he's been dropped, it's worth scooping him up to see.
Quick hits
Jordan Oesterle was handed the job of being Duncan Keith's defense partner starting on Dec. 10. Since then, he's managed seven points in 12 games and is even getting second unit duties on the power play. ... I still think Cam Talbot can turn things around, but it's getting pretty ugly. Al Montoya made his Edmonton Oilers debut in relief of Talbot on Saturday, and it would only take a good game or two for him to come into regular starts. ... The Ottawa Senators showed some signs of life this weekend, scoring six goals in consecutive games for the first time since October. Ryan Dzingel snuck into the scoring lines, skating with Matt Duchene and Mike Hoffman, and has four goals in his past five. ... Travis Konecny is heating up for the Philadelphia Flyers. At the very least, he is beginning to take advantage of the great role he's been given. Konecny has spent the past seven games on the top line with Giroux and Sean Couturier, and he has five points to show for it. ... With 28 points in 29 games in the AHL this season, Daniel Sprong was called up by the Pittsburgh Penguins on Dec. 31. After three games on a checking line, Sprong joined Sidney Crosby for the past two contests. It's probably not a coincidence that the fresh blood spurred Crosby to seven points in that pair of games. Sprong could end up running with this role for at least a little while. ... The Blues and Lightning both switched up their scoring lines over the weekend. St. Louis ran with Tarasenko, Stastny and Ivan Barbashev as the top trio, relegating Schenn to second-line duty for the first time in a while. We'll have to see if it sticks following their bye. The Lightning dropped Vladislav Namestnikov from the top line for Chris Kunitz. Kunitz has significant experience playing with superstar talent (Crosby, prime Perry/Getzlaf), so if this sticks he's obviously worth a look. ... Sven Baertschi returned to the Canucks lineup on Sunday after missing 11 games. He skated with Thomas Vanek and Sam Gagner, while Brock Boeser moved to a line with the Sedin twins. This should all change again in a couple weeks when Bo Horvat is healthy. ... Jack Roslovic is up with the Winnipeg Jets for the time being. He was among the AHL scoring leaders with 35 points in 31 games. He's playing among the bottom six at even strength, but saw some time on the first power-play unit on Sunday.