Tony Romo takes a lot of heat for his poor late-season, and playoff, history. Many will point out his 14-21 record from Dec. 1 forward (playoffs included), extrapolating that he's an awful late-season fantasy choice.
Here's the problem with that: It's entirely unwarranted.
Over the past three seasons, Romo has averaged 18.0 fantasy points per game from Dec. 1 forward, compared to 16.3 per game the rest of the year. In addition, since 2009, five of his 14 games of 25-plus points have come in December.
All in all, Romo has been effectively as productive in his career in the regular season's final month as in any other, his averages less than one point apart. I've made the case that his greatest weakness in fantasy is his inconsistency. He has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in just 17 of 43 games since the beginning of 2012 (entering Week 13) for 39.5 percent, tied for ninth-best. Romo has been consistently inconsistent regardless of what the calendar reads.
It's that revelation that spawns a relevant question: Is there such a thing as a "December performer"?
Romo's example is compelling evidence that it's more fiction than fact. Consider that, of the 139 skill players to appear in at least eight December games and 20 from September to November from 2011 to 2013 while averaging at least five fantasy points per game overall -- chosen to extract the nonfactors in fantasy -- only 26 (or 19 percent) had a December average at least 25 percent better than in the preceding three months; only 12 (or 9 percent) had a December average that was at least 25 percent worse. Meanwhile, 32 percent of those players had an average within 10 percent, representing little to no change whatsoever.
Why that 25 percent threshold? Simple: Any change in performance beneath that could be explained as a product of the matchups; it's typical to see a top-shelf matchup granting a skill player that much of a statistical advantage. So we don't want to give too much credit to a player who didn't exceed that level.
Keep in mind, as you peruse the lists below, that a "December performer" is a label that represents no guarantees. Still, a few individuals do have career numbers that make them seemingly fit the part:
December studs
Colin Kaepernick: He has a remarkably good December track record, as four of his 20-plus-point fantasy performances have come in that month. If you tack on his playoff fantasy prowess -- individual scores of 46 (an all-time record for a fantasy playoff game, using ESPN standard scoring), 15, 26, 20, 18 and 17 -- there's seemingly something here. That said, two seasons of data and 34 career regular-season starts represent a somewhat flighty sample. But here's something to consider: He has a 61.0 percent completion rate and 1.0 percent interception rate in December games, compared to 59.9 and 1.9 in the previous three months, and one relevant criticism of Kaepernick's 2014 performance has been his accuracy. Could his December-and-beyond prowess be a trend? Perhaps, and he can certainly use the supporting argument considering his schedule (@OAK, @SEA, SD, ARI).
Michael Crabtree: His performance has contributed to Kaepernick's strong finishes, as he has averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game in December the past three seasons, compared to 6.6 the rest of the year.
Jamaal Charles: Nobody in the game, at least among longtime regulars, has starker contrast in his monthly splits than Mr. Charles. Just look at this December history: 66 fantasy points in four games in 2009, 60 in four in 2010, 69 in five in 2012 and 114 in four in 2013, including his personal-best 51 in Week 15 of 2013. That's plenty of evidence to support Charles as a "save-his-best-for-last" player, and while his Week 14 matchup (@ARI) might be scary, his rest-of-December schedule isn't (OAK, @PIT, SD), especially with another game against the Oakland Raiders on it.
Ryan Tannehill: Here's the potentially actionable one, as Tannehill finds himself available in a cool 50.4 percent of ESPN leagues. He's on a team in the thick of a playoff race, increasing his chances of playing all 17 weeks, and not one of his December matchups is a "bottom-eight" one; the New York Jets game in Week 17 is, in fact, outstanding. Tannehill has had eight 20-plus-point fantasy performances in his young career, and four happened in December; the others have all occurred in 2014.
December stinkers
Torrey Smith: When it comes to wide receiver splits, sometimes volume -- snaps, routes, targets and ultimately receptions -- come into play. But in the example of Smith, while his December-forward track record reveals diminished usage, his stat splits with what he has gotten are wider:
Sept.-Nov.: 17.9 YPC, 6.8 TGT/G, 35.3 Routes/G, 0.192 TGT/Route
December: 14.0 YPC, 6.3 TGT/G, 31.9 Routes/G, 0.197 TGT/Route
In what has been a disappointing 2014 for Smith, his late-season track record offers little room for optimism regarding a rebound.
A.J. Green: If you thought Smith's monthly splits were of concern, consider Green's. He has been targeted more often in December than in any other month, yet he has averaged just 9.3 fantasy points per game in his career in the month, compared to 12.1 the rest of the season. Also:
Sept.-Nov.: 15.9 YPC, 9.1 TGT/G, 33.3 Routes/G, 0.272 TGT/Route
December: 12.8 YPC, 10.1 TGT/G, 33.7 Routes/G, 0.298 TGT/Route
That's not to say Green's fantasy owners should break out in a cold sweat, but consider his December matchups when you're evaluating his weekly upside. He will face the Pittsburgh Steelers twice (Antwon Blake his most likely cornerback matchup) and the Cleveland Browns (Joe Haden) and Denver Broncos (Aqib Talib) once apiece. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, Green has a grand total of 26 fantasy points in six games against those cornerbacks' teams.
Mark Sanchez: Sorry, Philadelphia Eagles fans and Sanchez owners, this story doesn't necessarily have a happy ending. Granted, the circumstances in Philadelphia are considerably different than they were during his Jets career, but Sanchez's history of late-season meltdowns is downright scary. He has five career double-digit fantasy performances in 15 December starts, a 7.8 average and a 54.6 percent completion and 4.6 percent interception rate from Dec. 1 forward (55.5 and 3.4 the rest of the year). And Sanchez does have a pair of mediocre-to-bad matchups at fantasy's most critical time, Weeks 14 and 15 (SEA, DAL), making him look awfully risky going forward.