Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic.
Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Joe Kaiser, Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 7) and Karl-Anthony Towns (No. 8) sit right next to each other on the Player Rater (averages). Who will finish higher by season's end?
Kyle Soppe: I spent a good amount of time going back and forth on this one and truly believe I could talk either player up, but my slight lean is toward Antetokounmpo for one reason and one reason only -- usage. As good as Towns is, his Timberwolves have the fourth-best record in the West and he ranks No. 98 in usage. That's not a typo: 98! That's behind the likes of Tony Parker and Austin Rivers. If Minnesota were struggling and needed to change things up a bit, I'd be all in on KAT being the pick here, but they rank behind only the Warriors and Rockets in offensive efficiency, so I have a hard time seeing much changing for the stretch run.
Antetokounmpo checks in at No. 10 in usage, ahead of Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry. While his range is essentially limited to 16 feet, until the league shows me that they can consistently force him into other shots, I'm assuming that it is humanly impossible to stop The Greek Freak from continuing to score at will.
Neither of these players projects for much regression, so I think your team is in good hands either way. However, when all is said and done, Antetokounmpo is going to be on more championship rosters than Towns.
Jim McCormick: I think the Player Rater will rank Towns higher by the finish of the campaign, but that said, I also believe Antetokounmpo is the more valuable fantasy contributor. I suppose it depends how you value different categories. The Player Rater weighs all stats equally, but I value The Greek Freak's elite scoring and positive assist production far more than I fear his modest free-throw rate -- where he's being punished on the index.
A good portion of Towns' value on the Player Rater comes from efficiency (shooting percentages) rather than volume. Towns is an elite rebounder and a peer of Antetokounmpo's in block rate, but Milwaukee's unicorn is taking 38.9 percent more shots per game and nearly doubling Towns in steals. Simply put, Giannis is No. 3 in the NBA in shots per game and KAT is No. 50. Once Towns starts taking 18 shots a night, he could become the fantasy hoops MVP, but that's not happening this season.
Joe Kaiser: Towns has been playing slightly better this season and leads the league in double-doubles, but I can't get past his lack of impact in terms of steals and assists compared to Antetokounmpo. Not to cop out, but I don't think it really matters which one of this pair finishes higher on the Player Rater because it will be very close one way or another.
In rotisserie leagues you have to consider whether 3-pointers and rebounds (Towns) or steals and assists (Antetokounmpo) matter more to your team. Steals and assists are typically more difficult to find on the waiver wire, so I'll continue to lean toward The Greek Freak.