With the MLB season just days away, ESPN's fantasy baseball experts have gathered to break down each position to help you prepare your draft-day strategy.
How are our fantasy analysts approaching relief pitching, and which players are they picking and avoiding in their drafts?
For more position previews, plus rankings, cheat sheets and mock drafts, check out our draft kit.
How are you approaching relief pitching this season?
Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen continues to establish himself as not only the best in his class but because of the strikeout numbers, durability and strong ratios a worthy selection in the first five rounds of a roto draft, and much better for points leagues. After Jansen my philosophy has not changed so much, as I still would prefer to load up on offense and even several starting pitchers before securing saves in the middle rounds. There really are not as many safe midround closers as normal but there are sleepers and ultimately, as we all know, plenty of saves will join the league during the season, so do not panic on draft day! -- Eric Karabell
I'm as apt to follow the "Don't pay for saves" strategy as anyone, but I think the angle is being taken to an extreme this season. Case in point: The Tout Wars NL-only auction this season, where Kenley Jansen, a $29-and-change earner from 2017, sold for $26, and Corey Knebel, a $22-plus earner, sold for $16. In the event that the rest of the pack is fading saves, I'll buy, especially the premium arms that get a lot of strikeouts, a group that includes Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Knebel and perhaps also Edwin Diaz and Ken Giles. Remember, with starting pitching workloads in decline, 100 strikeouts from your reliever has more value than it ever has in history.
I do think there's a potentially steep drop-off among saves-getters after about the top 15 or so, however, so I'm highly likely to dive into the pool within the first 13 or 14 rounds of a standard mixed-league draft. That's not to say that I don't see bargain saves-getters in the final rounds, but there's a lot more stability in guys like Sean Doolittle and Arodys Vizcaino than, say, Fernando Rodney and Luke Gregerson. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
My preferred points league plan is to be the first to draft a closer, no later than Round 3, and then -- especially at the ends of the snake -- use one of every two picks to add to my collection of closers until the top 15 at the position are gone. Since I'm typically the only one using this strategy, I find it works out exactly as I want it to. Occasionally, one or two other owners start to "play defense" and try to match my selections. That's fine with me, too. When other owners draft reactively in style they're not comfortable with, they tend to make mistakes -- and if I see a player at another position drop down further than they should as a result, I'm happy to pounce. -- AJ Mass
I'm not paying for saves, but I am monitoring them at all points and pouncing once value presents itself. I have a few closers at every tier that I like more than the public, so I'm keeping an eye on those guys and letting the draft dictate my approach. With the knowledge that I probably won't land any of the elite bullpen arms, I've focused my research on the closers I can get outside of the first 10 rounds. In short, the closer landscape is to be treated like the grocery store. If you go when you are hungry, you'll make bad decisions, but if you're satisfied when you walking the aisles, you'll make rational decisions that you won't regret. -- Kyle Soppe
My sleeper relief pitcher is:
The Chicago White Sox seemed like an odd offseason landing spot for 33-year-old veteran Joakim Soria, since the team does not appear ready to compete for a playoff spot. Soria is fine as relievers go, and boasts more than 200 saves to his credit, but Nate Jones has been with the organization a long time and is finally healthy and ready to emerge in the role. Jones throws hard but with command, and injuries have derailed his career, but he has looked strong in March. Look for the White Sox to give him the chance to pile on saves. -- Eric Karabell
Brad Hand is the closer who seems to be going later than he should, a 15th-rounder per ADP whom I consider an ideal selection in Rounds 12-13 (and perhaps sooner). He also fits the description of the "potential 100-strikeouts" closer, having gotten there last season and projected for 94 entering this year. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
I'm actually not going to use ADP, given my skewed valuation for points leagues that gives most closers a big bump in relation to standard drafting position. However, Pittsburgh's Felipe Rivero is checking in as the No. 8 RP off the board, and I think he can climb as high as third in terms of 2018 RP value. He only failed to record a strikeout 15 of his 73 appearances, and seven of those came in April or May. Now, he's admittedly struggled with his mechanics this spring, but he feels that's just a function of the offseason. In other words, he may well start slow again in 2018, but once everything begins to click, he could well be an unstoppable stopper. -- AJ Mass
There is value to be had in any bullpen that enters the season lacking clarity and Arizona is my favorite of such situations for a few reasons. Archie Bradley is a really good pitcher ... plain and simple. His 1.73 ERA last season was supported by a 2.61 FIP and he was consistent from start to finish. That's nice, but more importantly from a fantasy perspective is the floor that comes with Bradley. The worst case for most "closers" is that they get yanked from the ninth inning and provide essentially no value. That's not the case here, as we saw him throw 141.2 innings in 2016 and, if he's not finishing off games, he could easily be the 2018 version of last season's Chris Devenski. I'll invest in his skill set and hope for closer role presents itself rather than the other way around, especially at his current asking price. -- Kyle Soppe
My bust relief pitcher is:
Colorado's Wade Davis did not appear overworked during his lone regular season with the Cubs and superficially the numbers look fine, with 32 saves, plenty of strikeouts and a strong ERA and WHIP. Pitching half the time at Denver's Coors Field -- and adjusting for road games -- is so different. Davis permitted six home runs in 2017, double his mark from the previous three seasons combined. His walk rate rose and his fastball speed continues to decline. I am looking elsewhere for saves. -- Eric Karabell
Alex Colome is probably going at about the proper price point, but he's one closer for whom I don't anticipate acquiring any shares. His strikeout rate plummeted last season, and there's also a chance the Tampa Bay Rays will trade him midseason, perhaps to a team that would only use him in setup relief. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
What was up with Aroldis Chapman in 2017? To take that question literally, the answer is his ERA, BB/9 rate, HR/9 rate and BABIP. With fewer saves and a lower K rate, last year was not anywhere near vintage for the Yankees' closer. Certainly, there's a great chance he bounces back in 2018, but he is entering his age-30 season, which is where you begin to see some closers start to fade a bit. Since 2000, only 47 relievers have posted 35-plus saves at or after the age of 30, and only 23 ended up doing it twice. You'd need at least that level of save production from a pitcher you're drafting in Round 7 of standard leagues (and third off the board). I'm not sure he can get there, especially since if he does struggle at any point of the season, New York is a team with multiple other options who can step into the role. -- AJ Mass
Chapman will probably be productive, but at his current price point, "probably" isn't cutting it for me. The Yanks have a solid bullpen behind Chapman and that scares me given how vulnerable he was at times last season. We all think of the swing-and-miss strikeout when it comes to New York's flame thrower, but his swinging strike rate has decreased in three straight seasons, a stretch in which his HR/FB rate has trended in the opposite direction. If you're spending an early pick on a closer, you are looking to eliminate risk and Chapman just isn't the way to do that. -- Kyle Soppe
If I could get any relief pitcher at his current draft position cost to build around in drafts, it would be:
The threat of lefty Andrew Miller stealing save opportunities remains, but right-hander Cody Allen really has not had to deal with that the past few seasons. Allen boasts three consecutive seasons with 30 or more saves and an ERA on the good side of 3.00, with five consecutive seasons of 87 or more strikeouts. It is hard to find someone more reliable and yet, with Miller in the same bullpen, fantasy managers often overlook Allen. Well, he makes a solid first closer for me in the middle rounds. -- Eric Karabell
I'm all over Roberto Osuna, whose 3.38 ERA last season was a total mirage, and whose 3.00 projected ERA might be as much as a run too high. The guy had 83 strikeouts compared to nine walks last season! At worst, he's a top-four fantasy closer and a ninth-round selection. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
The current ADP for Kenley Jansen is Round 4. Those of you who have looked at my points league rankings know all about the high regard I have for the Dodgers ninth-inning guy, as he's a virtual lock to return first-round value come September. In a vacuum, you don't have to rush to grab Kenley as quickly as I do (since my league-mates will often draft Jansen earlier than normal in order to poach him from me, knowing my willingness to grab him early). But if Round 4 comes around and he's still there for you to claim, there's no reason to think twice. -- AJ Mass
You want to give me the entire list of closers with 35-plus saves and a sub-0.95 WHIP in each of the past two seasons? Kenley Jansen and Roberto Osuna. Most teams will put their best hitters in the 2-3-4 spots: well, those three spots hit .136 against Osuna in 2017. Look up and down his game log from last season and you'll notice a few blowups, but mainly 0's and at 23 years of age, he is only going to get better. Osuna's combination of price point and security makes him my favorite closer this season. -- Kyle Soppe
The young relief pitcher who could break out is:
The Diamondbacks have yet to announce their ninth-inning intentions for saving leads, but if right-hander Bradley wins the closer job, he is a potential top-10 choice for fantasy managers. Bradley could not thrive consistently as a starter but in his first season in relief he was terrific, often being asked to retire more than three hitters per outing. That might keep him in a setup role but if the Diamondbacks allow him to consistently close games there is upside for Knebel numbers, and at a low cost. -- Eric Karabell
Nate Jones, who was once considered the closer of the future for the White Sox and who now has a relatively clear path to saves in that bullpen. He has strung together six scoreless appearances so far this spring training, while chief competitor Joakim Soria has struggled (12.00 ERA), and if Jones can merely stay healthy, he could give you as many as 75 strikeouts with a healthy saves total. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
I like Osuna and Diaz, to be sure, but they saved a combined 73 games last season. I'd hardly call whatever this duo does this season as a "breakout." Bradley, on the other hand, moved to the bullpen last year after 34 starts over two seasons that resulted in a 5.18 ERA and a .274 BAA. Once he moved to the pen, he posted a 1.73 ERA and a .207 BAA in 63 appearances. Even if he doesn't get named as the Arizona closer coming out of March, his stats are certainly not going to hurt your ratios. I believe he'll end up as the closer at some point in 2018, and once he does, he's not giving the job back. -- AJ Mass
The experts in Vegas say that Detroit is on a short list of teams that could lead the league in losses this season and given that Shane Greene has a whopping 11 career saves, I understand the skepticism on banking on him as a fantasy closer. I get it. But the hate has gone too far. Way too far. Greene is being drafted as RP32 this season and that's wild to me for a pitcher who showed the ability to thrive in tough spots last year (.177 batting average against with men on base, 14th best among qualifiers). I like him to hold this role and given that 72.2 percent of teams netted at least 35 saves last season, I'm not worried about the Tigers being a bottom feeder. -- Kyle Soppe