Saturday night's NBA slate features five games. However, I am most interested in the game between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers. LeBron James is nine points from becoming the first NBA player to reach 40,000 in his career. The Lakers should also be motivated to snap their six-game losing streak to the Nuggets. Los Angeles will need a win to climb the standings in the competitive Western Conference. Saturday night's game provides an opportunity to do so on a national stage.
Now let's dive into my betting recommendations.
LeBron James over 33.5 points and assists. James should be dialed in as a scorer, for obvious reasons, but against a complete team like the Nuggets he should also be busy as a facilitator. James has surpassed this line in four of his past five games. It's also worth mentioning that he's cleared this line in five of his past nine games against the Nuggets.
Nikola Jokic over 9.5 assists. The Lakers rank 25th in assists allowed per game to centers. Jokic has not surpassed 9.5 assists in 13 of his past 17 road games, but I am optimistic about his chances in Los Angeles. He has cleared this line in four of his past five games. Also, Jokic has averaged 10.6 assists against the Lakers in the regular season and playoffs during the past two seasons.
Cameron Johnson over 14.5 points. The Hawks rank 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Cam Thomas has already been ruled out due to a right ankle sprain, which bodes well for Johnson. Johnson has cleared 14.5 points in six of the 11 games Thomas has missed. The matchup between the Nets and Hawks also has a narrow spread, implying a close game.
Dejounte Murray over 28.5 points and rebounds. With Trae Young out with a left hand injury, the Hawks will continue to rely heavily on Murray. Murray has a usage rate of 29.4% in games without Young this season. Murray has also surpassed 28.5 points and rebounds in four of his past five games without Young. The Nets rank 23rd in points per game allowed to point guards.
Kevin Durant over 30.5 points and rebounds. Even though the Rockets rank sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions, Durant is talented enough to be productive against any opponent and the bottom line is that he's playing great right now. Durant has surpassed this line in seven of his past 10 games. He's also eclipsed this line in three consecutive games against the Rockets and should deliver another remarkable performance Saturday, especially with Tari Eason out for the Rockets.
Jimmy Butler over 21.5 points. The Jazz rank 23rd in points per game allowed to small forwards. Butler has surpassed this line in seven of his past 10 games while averaging 34.8 minutes. Due to a foot injury, Butler played only 23 minutes and scored eight points against the Jazz on Dec. 30. Jimmy Buckets will be making an appearance against Utah on Saturday.
Projections and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets3 p.m. ET Barclays Center, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 26-33 (19-40-0)
Nets: 23-36 (26-30-3)
Line: Nets (-1.5) Total: 219.5
Money Line: Hawks (-105), Nets (-115)
BPI Projection: Nets by 2.6, straight up 59%, 227.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Seth Lundy, (OUT - Back); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT - Toe); Trae Young, (OUT - Finger)
Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD - Leg); Cam Thomas, (OUT - Ankle); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Utah Jazz at Miami Heat5 p.m. ET Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 27-33 (32-28-0)
Heat: 33-26 (30-28-1)
Line: Heat (-7.5) Total: 223.5
Money Line: Jazz (+250), Heat (-300)
BPI Projection: Heat by 5.8, straight up 70%, 229.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Jazz: Walker Kessler, (GTD - Foot); Otto Porter Jr., (OUT - Not Injury Related)
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD - Thumb); Haywood Highsmith, (GTD - Knee); Kevin Love, (GTD - Heel); Tyler Herro, (GTD - Knee); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder); Dru Smith, (OUT - Knee)
Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies8 p.m. ET FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 16-42 (26-32-0)
Grizzlies: 20-40 (28-32-0)
Line: Grizzlies (-2.5) Total: 209.5
Money Line: Blazers (+110), Grizzlies (-130)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies by 2.4, straight up 58%, 222.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Deandre Ayton, (GTD - Hand); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT - Elbow); Scoot Henderson, (OUT - Thigh); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT - Abdomen); Robert Williams III, (OUT - Knee)
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (GTD - Achilles); Derrick Rose, (GTD - Back); Jaren Jackson Jr., (GTD - Quadriceps); John Konchar, (GTD - Thumb); Luke Kennard, (GTD - Illness); Scotty Pippen Jr., (OUT - Back); Desmond Bane, (OUT - Ankle); Marcus Smart, (OUT - Finger); Ja Morant, (OUT - Shoulder)
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers8:30 p.m. ET Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 41-19 (26-32-2)
Lakers: 33-28 (27-34-0)
Line: Lakers (-1.5) Total: 227.5
Money Line: Nuggets (-105), Lakers (-115)
BPI Projection: Lakers by 0.3, straight up 51%, 232.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - Ankle); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, (GTD - Personal); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Achilles); Cam Reddish, (GTD - Ankle); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Christian Wood, (OUT - Knee); Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Knee); Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT - Foot); Colin Castleton, (OUT - Wrist)
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns9 p.m. ET Footprint Center, Phoenix
Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 25-34 (29-28-2)
Suns: 35-24 (25-33-1)
Line: Suns (-9.5) Total: 231.5
Money Line: Rockets (+360), Suns (-450)
BPI Projection: Suns by 7.5, straight up 75%, 226.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Rockets: Tari Eason, (OUT - Lower Leg); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee)
Suns: Bradley Beal, (GTD - Hamstring); Eric Gordon, (GTD - Groin); Nassir Little, (GTD - Knee); Damion Lee, (OUT - Knee)