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With deep guard class, should Vikings consider trading down?

Isaiah Wynn could figure into Minnesota's plans if things fall the Vikings' way next week. Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire

If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Rick Spielman during the NFL draft, it’s that the Vikings general manager isn’t afraid to stir things up on draft night.

Last year, Minnesota traded up twice to land Dalvin Cook in the second round and Pat Elflein in the third, making six trades over those three days in April to walk away with 11 selections. Like 2017, the Vikings enter this year’s draft with a total of eight picks. Given Spielman’s history, the chances of Minnesota finishing with more picks than it came in with appear pretty high.

The Vikings have the 30th overall selection in the first round next Thursday. Most indications point to Minnesota spending its first pick on an offensive lineman.

But what if that selection doesn’t need to take place until the second day of the draft? If Minnesota has its eye on a player it believes will be available in the early part of the second round based on the grade given/overall value of the player and position, Spielman could make his first move of the draft by trading out of the first round to get that player, while racking up another selection(s) in the process.

“They’re in a really good spot considering how strong their roster is from top to bottom,” ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said. “Yes, guard is a need, but there are plenty of high-level starting guards in the NFL that have come from Day 2, Day 3 and undrafted free agency, so I think knowing Rick, he’s going to sit there and wait. He’s certainly not adverse to moving around. He’s done that. He’s been very efficient if you study his drafts over the years, taking advantage of teams that need to move up or are in a panic to move up and getting value for that.”

With the retirement of right guard Joe Berger and the possibility of Mike Remmers moving back to right tackle, it’s easy to see why so many mock drafts are projecting the Vikings will take a guard early on. But by the time they pick at 30, the likelihood of the draft’s top two guards -- Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson and UTEP’s Will Hernandez -- will likely be off the board, according to McShay. Guard prospects like Connor Williams (Texas), Isaiah Wynn (Georgia), Braden Smith (Auburn) and Austin Corbett (Nevada) are expected late-first or early second-round selections and could figure into Minnesota’s plans.

The difference for the Vikings between selecting a player at 30 or 35-38 might not be that great, but for a team hoping to land a quarterback in the low 20s or early 30s, those few extra spots may make all the difference.

The 2018 crop could challenge the 1983 class for most quarterbacks taken in the first round with six. Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield are expected to be the first four quarterbacks off the board. That number could jump if the dominos then fall for Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph.

The depth of this year’s quarterback group may yield major dividends for the Vikings if they opt to trade down with a QB-needy team. Teams looking for a potential franchise quarterback are often willing to pay big to move into the first round, particularly because they’re seeking out a fifth-year option.

As a reminder, Minnesota doesn't currently have a fourth-round pick. If there are multiple suitors wanting to take a quarterback at 30, the Vikings are in the perfect spot to trade back and walk away satisfied with their compensation.

On average, three to four quarterbacks usually get taken on the first night of the draft, which may bump back a player or two to a team picking in the late 20s and beyond. Depending how many QBs are taken with picks 1-29, Minnesota might enjoy the option of selecting a player it may not have felt would be around at 30.

“If a player at a position falls to you that you never expected to be there, that’s different than offensive line, you just take advantage of it,” McShay said. “If not, check to see if the phones are ringing and if not, then you take the best available player on your board. If it lines up with guard, it’ll probably be one of those names that I just mentioned [Williams, Wynn, Smith, Corbett].”

Minnesota has the 62nd pick in the second round and the 94th overall in the third round. More guards (approximately seven to eight) are expected to come off the board in the first few rounds than in years past.

The Vikings could very well land a Day 1 starter at guard with the 62nd pick and opt to use their first-round selection or the pick they'd obtain via trading down for another position (cornerback, pass rusher, weakside linebacker) and still see names like Billy Price, Frank Ragnow and Martinas Rankin available. The depth this guard class puts Minnesota in an ideal position to sit comfortably at 30 while weighing all of its options.

“The thing you have to figure out [when drafting offensive linemen], because there’s not great depth this year, especially at tackle -- when’s the run going to happen and we have to make sure we’re in the middle of the run or in the front end of the run and not in the back end of the run and left out,” McShay said.