JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell's NFL draft strategy is pretty simple: When it comes to selecting players, the top priority is to minimize the risks.

That's one of the reasons the bulk of the players he has drafted since arriving with the franchise in 2013 have come from Power 5 schools. That's a reversal from what his predecessor, Gene Smith, did, and it's part of the reason the Jaguars have gone from one of the league's worst teams to one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl during Caldwell's tenure.

"My draft philosophy is minimize as much risk as possible," Caldwell said. "You're adding another element of risk when you're taking somebody from a smaller school. It's also a case-by-case basis. You've got to evaluate the player first. That's the first thing we do. Then we look at who he's playing against."

According to ESPN Stats & Information, 88.7 percent of the 318 first-round draft picks from 2008-17 came from current Power 5 schools. Only 36 players from non-current Power 5 schools were first-round picks. In addition, 143 of the 184 players named first-team All-Pro since 2010 played at Power 5 schools. That's 77.7 percent.

All but nine of Caldwell's 46 draft picks -- including all seven in 2018 -- and all but one of his six first-round picks (quarterback Blake Bortles) played at Power 5 schools. He doesn't avoid drafting smaller-school players, but he's playing the percentages that show players from Power 5 schools have a much better chance of succeeding -- and turning into elite players -- than those from the FCS, Division II and Division III.

There's generally more info available on Power 5 and bigger-school players, and when it comes to evaluating prospects, there's no such thing as too much information.

"We have more exposure to bigger-school guys," Caldwell said. "We're sending multiple scouts to Division I-A schools and spend the majority of our time there. We still evaluate them, give them equal opportunity and make sure that we know everything about those guys.

"A lot of times players from major schools, we have two, three years of exposure on those guys. Some small-school guys, they may come to you late within their senior year. You probably don't have as much exposure from the time when they were sophomores, junior, seniors and area scouts have been watching them and evaluating them."

Caldwell said drafting players from small schools, particularly those on the FCS, Division II or Division III levels, is more challenging because it's a tougher projection for evaluators. The level of competition the players face on a daily basis in practice and on game days makes it even more of a crapshoot in predicting how they will fare against players that have faced high-level competition at Power 5 schools.

Players from smaller schools often are at a disadvantage when it comes to facilities, weight programs, level of coaching and training tables. That can put them behind someone who played at Ohio State or LSU in terms of their development, Caldwell said, but it also can be an indication that they might have a higher ceiling.

Often there's not as much film on those players, either. They might only get on a scout's radar after having a big season and then NFL teams have to play catch-up when it comes to gathering information.

"You start with their individual traits first," Caldwell said. "If they come from a smaller school, you like them to have measurables that compare to players in the NFL. Height, weight, speed, athleticism. Then you evaluate the production. The postseason stuff. They get a chance to go to the East-West Shrine Game, Senior Bowl, combine."

Caldwell has drafted players from smaller schools, including safety Johnathan Cyprien (from Florida International, in the second round in 2013), receiver Neal Sterling (Monmouth, seventh round in 2015) and linebacker Tyrone Holmes (Montana, sixth round in 2016). Cyprien was the best of the bunch, starting 60 games and breaking up 15 passes, intercepting two others and forcing four fumbles in four seasons with the Jaguars before signing with Tennessee in March 2017.

Those small-school picks have been the exception, though. Smith, the team's former GM, took the opposite approach from 2009-12, when only 10 of his 26 draft picks played in Power 5 conferences (then known as BCS conferences). Just two of his 11 picks in the 2010 and 2011 drafts played in those conferences: Cal defensive tackle Tyson Alualu (10th overall in 2010) and Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert, whom the Jaguars traded up to pick at No. 10 in 2011 and is arguably the biggest draft bust in team history.

Smith also didn't draft a single player from the Southeastern Conference. The league was in the midst of winning seven consecutive national titles (2006-12) and had at least two teams in the top 10 of the final BCS standings from 2003-11, but Smith passed on every single player from an SEC school. Caldwell has drafted 14.

Smith's approach was part of the reason why the Jaguars won only 22 games during his four-year tenure. Only one player from his four drafts signed a second contract with the Jaguars (Alualu), though several went on to have success after leaving Jacksonville (Rashad Jennings, Eugene Monroe, Brandon Marshall and Andre Branch).

The small-school players he drafted didn't pan out, but it's too simplistic to blame that entirely on where they came from. The numbers show they just had a smaller chance of working out when compared to players from Power 5 schools.

There are countless examples of small-school players who have thrived in the NFL. Oakland linebacker Khalil Mack (Buffalo) is one of the league's best defensive players. Philadelphia's Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) was headed for the MVP last season before suffering a torn ACL. Guard Jahri Evans, whom New Orleans drafted in the fourth round out of Division II Bloomsburg in 2006, was a four-time, first-team All-Pro and made six Pro Bowls.

In each of those cases, however, they were dominant at the lower levels. Taking that kind of player increases the chance of success, Caldwell said, and that goes back to minimizing risk.

"Usually if they're coming from the smaller level they should have tremendous stats and dominate the level of competition," Caldwell said. "Once they have the traits and dominate the level of competition, you feel confident taking somebody from a small school."