The action in the PBA Commissioner's Cup playoffs gets more intense with the semifinals set to unfold. Rain or Shine was able to survive GlobalPort, while Alaska made quick work of Magnolia. Defending champion San Miguel managed to take down TNT, while Ginebra took care of its business against Meralco. Which teams will advance to the finals? Chuck Araneta, Jan Ballesteros, Charlie Cuna, Yoyo Sarmenta and Noel Zarate weigh in.
San Miguel can win their series because...
Chuck Araneta: They have the most high powered offense among all the teams still standing. They have the four-time MVP. Their import is a relentless defender and attacker determined to bring a championship to the franchise. When it comes to SMB, the real question is whether there's any reason they won't win any series.
Jan Ballesteros: While Alaska had proven to be a thorn in the their side the first time they met in the finals, the Beermen have learned to stay composed under extreme pressure after numerous trips to the finals. Heck, the Beermen even pulled off a "Beeracle," clawing back from 0-3 down to win the championship two years ago. Alaska is on a roll right now behind BPC frontrunner Vic Manuel. It's not clear whether Calvin Abueva's suspension will be lifted in time for the series. But the Beermen also rediscovered their deadly form after a 0-3 start while reinforcing their frontcourt with top rookie Christian Standhardinger and and Kelly Nabong.
Charlie Cuna: It is the defending champ with the four-time reigning MVP, the import who can do the most things well, and a line-up that is just stacked from top to bottom, in the frontcourt and the backcourt. The core of this current SMB squad is at its best when it's winning time. Considering the semis are just best-of-5s, they know it's winning time right now. After a lousy start to the conference, their eyes are now on the prize.
Yoyo Sarmenta: History dictates that the San Miguel Beermen will have another deep run in the PBA postseason. Since the 2014-2015 season, they've won six of the 10 titles. Specifically, they've won three finals series against the Alaska Aces from 2015 to 2016. With four-time MVP June Mar Fajardo still at the peak of his powers, there's no telling when the dominance of San Miguel will waver. This conference, the Beermen also have a reinvigorated Renaldo Balkman. Once banished and forgotten, Balkman has proven that he hasn't lost a step. San Miguel's frontline of Fajardo, Balkman, along with Arwind Santos and Christian Standhardinger, will cause a ton of problems for the Aces.
Noel Zarate: They've been to the Finals too many times with its present core for them not to know the path. However, it has to be all hands on deck against this rejuvenated Alaska squad. The Beermen are just entering their playoff form, but if their showing in the quarterfinals against TNT is any indication of how lethal they can be, then just by being the cohesive, aggressive unit they are (and with a Renaldo Balkman who now knows what it takes to win) San Miguel might just be poised to defend its crown.
Alaska can win their series because...
Chuck: They've always thrived in the underdog role. Without Calvin Abueva, their offense and defense has become more disciplined, and they're less prone to making turnovers or risks. Against San Miguel, you can't afford to make a lot of mistakes. And of course they have Vic Freaking Manuel, who is on one of the hottest scoring binges we've seen in awhile.
Jan: Diamon Simpson could spell the difference this series. The returning import brings in the championship experience and the mental toughness which could come in handy when the chips are down. Incidentally, Simpson led the Aces to the championship in the 2010 Fiesta Conference against the Beermen.
Charlie: The Aces might be playing the best basketball overall at this time - Vic Manuel is scoring at will, Diamon Simpson provides a defensive presence inside that will bother everyone else, including The Kraken, and the guards (especially Chris Banchero and Ping Exciminiano) will always play in-your-face defense. Simpson needs to stay out of foul trouble though, for this team to have a chance as the other Aces bigs (and there aren't many), except probably for Noy Baclao, are not as capable defensively.
Yoyo: Alaska's chances will rely heavily on the wide shoulders of Vic Manuel. The Muscle Man is averaging a career-best 24.2 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.0 assist in the elimination round to lead the Best Player of the Conference statistical race. More than the stats, Manuel has shown his vast improvement in the post area under the tutelage of Danny Ildefonso. Import Diamon Simpson, who led the Aces to the 2010 Fiesta Conference title, will undoubtedly be critical, but Manuel is a huge barometer of their success.
Noel: Vic Manuel has taken power pellets and the Aces are playing their best basketball since 2016. Besides having The Muscleman brandishing MVP form this conference, coach Alex Compton has Alaska believing they can achieve greatness here and now and with Diamon Simpson meshing well in their last two outings, the Aces may have the necessary personnel and conviction to topple the team that broke their hearts so many times in previous seasons.
Ginebra can win their series because...
Chuck: Their defense has gotten back to the levels it was when they won championships in the Governors' Cup. They're the hottest team in the league, winners of seven straight games, because they're just clicking on both ends of the floor. It used to be that their offense would come and go, giving teams an opportunity to make a comeback. But with Jeff Chan on the floor, there is never a drop-off.
Jan: Everyone's healthy. Greg Slaughter provides the size to match up Reggie Johnson. Slaughter's presence also opens up shooters like Jeff Chan, who has been playing well for the Gin Kings.
Charlie: Guys like Justin Brownlee, LA Tenorio, Joe Devance, and Jeff Chan, among others, know how to win. The Gin Kings may not always run the smoothest offense, but they have enough weapons and experience to know what to do at the right time. Ginebra always has its crowd to support it, especially when it gets on a run. Coach Tim Cone is always one of the X-factors; the opponent will never really know what he may have cooked up. Look for the Ginebra guards to attack and put pressure on the ROS guards, who, against GlobalPort, seemed to get rattled, particularly near the endgame.
Yoyo: Height and versatility will be the primary weapons of Barangay Ginebra. Their frontcourt of Greg Slaughter, Japeth Aguilar, and Justin Brownlee will try to overwhelm the big men of Rain or Shine. Slaughter can man the post while also shoot an occasional 15-footer. Aguilar meanwhile uses the baseline effectively, perfect for interior passes from LA Tenorio or Scottie Thompson. Then there's Brownlee who has more range and speed than Rain or Shine's Reggie Johnson.
Noel: They just creamed Meralco. As in the Bolts just got crushed by a team with a 6'4" reinforcement and impeccable teamwork. Ginebra is playing so in sync right now that they're beginning to draw comparisons to the San Antonio Spurs of yesteryear. There's a reason why they have the longest active winning streak in the league and it will take a Herculean effort for any team (even with bigger imports) to stop the Kings at present. They just keep getting better.
Rain or Shine can win their series because...
Chuck: They have depth at every position, and scorers that can hurt you anytime. Their import Reggie Johnson has proven to be simply unstoppable. Greg Slaughter should make it tough on him at times, but he's a dynamic scorer everywhere on the floor. They'll come at waves against Ginebra, and will be determined to get one over Tim Cone and company.
Jan: From what I saw last game, James Yap and Reggie Johnson make a good pair. If Rain or Shine's shooters will click and find their range, Ginebra will have to decide whether to put two bodies on Johnson and let their shooters make their shots.
Charlie: It has been the best team overall this conference. It has won easily in some games, it has won with difficulty in others, but it has consistently come out on top. Reggie Johnson might not put up the most impressive import numbers, but he has been perfect for the Elasto Painters. He is smart and willing to take shots under pressure. There are some big locals on this team that can test Ginebra (Beau Belga, Raymond Almazan, Jewel Ponferrada, plus JWash and Norbert Torres).
Yoyo: As always, Rain or Shine has their depth as their trump card. Coach Caloy Garcia has kept his players in check with no one playing extended minutes. Garcia will have the luxury of plugging in different players to find the perfect remedy for Ginebra. Plus, the resurgence of Chris Tiu will play a vital role in Rain or Shine's playoff hopes. If Tiu can continue to spread the floor and provide solid playmaking, this will open up to more scoring opportunities for Reggie Johnson, Gabe Norwood, and Maverick Ahanmisi.
Noel: The Elasto Painters are angry they were stretched by GlobalPort and will want to take that out on Ginebra. Reggie Johnson is the gift that keeps on giving and his teammates are responding positively to the energy and aggression he brings. However, James Yap is beginning to reacquaint us with why he is a two-time MVP. Making the semis for the first time in a Rain or Shine jersey should make that chip on his shoulder to prove he's still quite relevant tp fuel the Elasto Painters to a return to the Commissioners Cup Finals.
Predictions for both series
Chuck: San Miguel in 4. Rain or Shine in 5.
Jan: San Miguel in four games. Ginebra in five.
Charlie: San Miguel in four tough games. The other one is such a toss-up. I think it will go five, with Ginebra winning by a nose.
Yoyo: San Miguel defeats Alaska, 3-2. Ginebra defeats Rain or Shine, 3-2.
Noel: San Miguel and Ginebra via the full route.