In the buildup to the 2021 Weightlifting World Championships that are currently underway, Indian chief coach Vijay Sharma had kept expectations to a minimum. For most weight divisions, his plan at the worlds was for Indian weightlifters to push towards national records and perhaps seal qualification for the Commonwealth Games. But for one weight division, the women's 49kg, his main priority was to observe.
India's best lifter at that weight, Olympic silver medalist, Mirabai Chanu decided to skip the tournament after considering her preparation to be sub-optimal. In her place went Jhili Dalabehera, but with Mirabai still India's biggest prospect for an international medal in the near future, coach Sharma says he was looking to see what the rest of the field was up to. That in turn would let him know just where Mirabai stood in the reckoning.
There's no doubting Mirabai's prowess, but it is a fact that circumstances fell in her favour in Tokyo. While the main claimant for the gold medal was China, the silver and bronze medal spots would have in normal circumstances been a three way fight - between the Indian, Thailand and North Korea. That never happened. The North Koreans skipped the games altogether - ruling 2018 Asian champ and 2019 World Championship bronze medalist Ri Song-gum out of contention. Thailand missed the Games too -- while 2016 Olympic champion Sopita Tanasan failed a dope test in 2019, the national team had been banned owing to widespread doping offences.
Now, we have a better idea of what the competition for India's premier weightlifter will look like going forward.
China's 2020 Olympic champion Hou Zhihui has already improved on her lift in Tokyo (210kg) and the old world record (213kg) with a new world record of 214kg at China's National Games in Shaanxi in September this year.
While details of Song-gum's progress is still unknown since she hasn't taken part in any international competition since 2020, she is likely to have improved. She was only 22-years-old when she had made a total lift of 204kg at the 2019 Worlds where she beat Mirabai to the bronze medal.
And so, at the Worlds, coach Sharma would have been looking at the Thailand representative. Surodchana Khambao wouldn't have been Thailand's first pick in the 49kg division - that would probably have been Tanasan - but she won gold at her first Worlds. Khambao made a total lift of 191kg - around 10 kilos short of Mirabai's standard. At this stage it would appear that while there's still a way to go for Mirabai to match up to the Chinese weightlifters - there's as much of a gap between the Indian and any other competitor for a place on the podium.
But there's good reason to believe that gap might be whittled down. For one, Khambao - at 21-years-old -- is still at the initial years of her career and already lifting far more than the Indian at a similar stage of development. She's already proved she has the potential lift a lot more than her total at the World Championships. At the 2018 Asian Games, Khambao - then competing in the women's 53kg division -- made a total lift of 201kg, just three kilos shy of Mirabai's personal best.
At the 2021 Worlds, Khambao, with an 86kg lift in the snatch was just a couple of kilos short of Mirabai's career best of 88kg. But while she and the Indian are neck and neck in the first weightlifting event, Mirabai shoots far ahead in the clean and jerk event. Mirabai's personal best in that category is also the world record of 119kg - a massive 14kg bump over Khambao's best of 105kg in Tashkent.
Indeed, that clean and jerk movement has for long been Mirabai's get out of trouble ticket. While there are many weightlifters who can match her or at least come within a couple of kilos of her in the snatch event, Mirabai is in a league of her own in the clean and jerk movement - where fighting spirit and raw strength count for much more than pure technical skill. But even here, Khambao might be capable of getting closer than others. At the 2018 Asian Games, Khambao - albeit competing in the 53kg category had won bronze with very Mirabai-esque numbers - 86kg in the snatch and 115kg in the clean and jerk.
It's clear that Mirabai can't be secure in the already lofty heights she is at already. Not only is Khambao capable of pushing her, her old rival Tanasan is expected to return to competition next year as well.
At 27 years-old Mirabai is probably close to her peak physical ability. Her clean and jerk best at 119kg is already at the upper limit of her body's physical ability. Mirabai's snatch, though, has plenty of room to improve. Among elite weightlifters the ideal ratio is that the snatch lift should be between 78 to 82 percent of the clean and jerk. China's Hou Zhihui, snatch of 96kg is- about 82 percent of her clean and jerk lift of 117kg. According to this ratio, Mirabai should be looking to touch the 92kg mark.
It's an improvement she's conscious of making. "She's working on a new technique in her snatch. Her target for 2022 is the Asian Games. She's never taken part in the Asian Games before. That is one tournament where she doesn't have a medal and she wants to do well there. But for that she has to improve her total even further," coach Sharma says.