It's Monday and the FIBA break is thankfully in the books, so it's time to set our eyes firmly back on the NBL postseason.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are here to decide... is this just a headline, or is it a genuine storyline?
THE FIBA BREAK HAS TAKEN AWAY A SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR MELBOURNE AND PERTH
Peter Hooley: Headline.
It is very true that a near three-week is not ideal for Perth and Melbourne, but I think the FIBA break in general may hurt the Kings more than anyone else. When I think back to the way they demolished that undermanned SEM team in the last game of the season, I saw some signs from the Kings players that I hadn't seen much in NBL24. There's no doubt that they did what they should have done but the way the ball was moving offensively and the way everyone was moving together defensively, helped them create easy shots every single time down the floor. From all of that, you could see the joy radiating off all the players in this game and if they can replicate that in the postseason, then who knows how far they could go. The issue now is that all of that occurred over a week ago and had they had to play a few days after that game, I think it would be much easier to continue that form.
Kane Pitman: Storyline.
Of course it has. I couldn't be any stronger in my belief that the seeding and well-earned advantages that come with that need to be protected at all times. You play a full regular season to avoid the play-in Tournament and the reward is weeks off before diving right in to playoff basketball, and oh, by the way, you'll be playing a team that has already shaken off the rust In one or two do-or-die scenarios. The complexities of working around the FIBA break is well discussed and understood, but in addition to hurting teams that have earned their seed, you've also completely quelled the amazing momentum the back of the regular season carried. The postseason will still be awesome but you're lying if you say this hasn't killed some of the buzz we all had two weeks ago.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline.
On one hand, it's not like Perth and Melbourne were absolutely rolling going into the break, so neither will be missing out on some continuation of amazing play. Where it hurts, though, is their eventual opponent having played one or two competitive, high-urgency games going into the semi-finals. That sort of thing allows a team to gather some sort of rhythm, whereas Perth and Melbourne will probably have to manufacture some of that going into the games. At the end of the day, I think everyone will end up being just fine - the extra rest is probably a good thing for both teams - but, at the very least, it's not optimal.
THE NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS CAN'T WIN WITHOUT WILL McDOWELL-WHITE
Peter Hooley: Storyline
Never say never when you have players like Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Zylan Cheatham on the floor, but no Will McDowell-White would be just another brutal loss for a team that's had horrific luck all season. There are many reasons that McDowell-White makes this team significantly better, but what they would miss most is his decision making with the ball in his hands and allowing PJC to play off the ball. In do-or-die games, you expect the stars to play nearly 40 minutes, so being able to give some rest and sit off the ball instead of on the bench can play a crucial role when it comes to the fourth quarter as well. Without getting too deep into previous form, McDowell-White also seems to enjoy playing in Sydney against the Kings, with his court vision on full display against their defensive schemes.
Kane Pitman: Storyline.
I was hyper aware of not being one to overlook the loss of Anthony Lamb, an eventual All-NBL first team player after he was lost for the season with a devastating achilles injury. I would be lying if I didn't watch Will McDowell-White in the first game post Lamb and think.....hang on a second, why did I not see this?
Lamb was capable of carrying the Breakers offence on his own, scoring over a point per play in isolation and post up scenarios (via jordanmcnbl.com), without him, the Breakers needed to find a way to unglue the halfcourt sets. McDowell-White's ability to get downhill and create for others felt critical to the Breakers defying the latest injury setback....if they are without him, I'm not quite sure they have enough offence to top the Kings.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline.
If McDowell-White misses considerable time - and they may not have time, because they're in those do-or-die play-in games - it's just tough to see where the sustained creation comes from from the Breakers. Kane went through the Lamb numbers; he was their main initiator and circuit-breaker when things got stagnant, or when Jackson-Cartwright was off the floor. When he went down, it was an easy transition to just lean more into McDowell-White's creation. Now, it's tough to see where they turn. The Breakers have some juice and, even without two of their best players, are still very talented, but the depth is not ideal following these injuries.
JUSTIN TATUM SHOULD HAVE WON COACH OF THE YEAR
Peter Hooley: Storyline.
We hate fence sitters here, but that's exactly what I'm going to be doing and I'm not ashamed of it. Should Tatum have been Coach of the Year? Yes. Should Dean Vickerman have been Coach of the Year? Also, yes. It's one of those unique situations whereby you have the only possible arguments for winning this award both in play. You have the coach of the best team in the league, who sat at the top all season long and dealt with injuries etc and never lost two in a row. Then you have a coach taking over mid-season and taking a bottom of the ladder team to a top four position. The final votes proved how close this was between the two and if there was ever going to be dual winners, I'm not sure anyone would have had a problem with it this year.
Kane Pitman: Headline.
The Justin Tatum story is absolutely ridiculous. It's been a joyous experience to watch this Hawks team on a complete 180 from where they sat to start the season. It was not only unexpected, but unthinkable that they could reach the play-in Tournament and give themselves a shot at the playoffs. But it's also true that Tatum was not head coach for 32 percent of the regular season after taking over nine games into an already short 28-game race to the finish line. For Vickerman, the process of claiming coach of the year started at Summer League last July, carried through the preseason and right through to today. It's hard for me to overlook that.
Olgun Uluc: Headline.
This one feels easy. Vickerman winning Coach of the Year was an extremely reasonable outcome: United was the best team all season long, top-3 on both ends of the floor, and never lost back-to-back games. Whatever 'talent' one thinks they have, it takes elite level coaching over the course of a season to achieve that. In saying that, if Tatum had won the award, the reasoning behind it would also have been completely fine. What he did with the Hawks since taking over was incredible, so either outcome would have made sense; no matter which way it swung between Vickerman and Tatum, there wouldn't have been any feeling of injustice.