In the main event of UFC 227, TJ Dillashaw will defend his UFC bantamweight championship against former champion and chief rival Cody Garbrandt. Dillashaw defeated Garbrandt for the title via second-round knockout in the co-main event of UFC 217. At a glance, the two fighters appear to be similar from a stylistic and statistical perspective. However, there are several key differences that could end up being deciding factors in their rematch.
Striking differential
Both fighters are accomplished strikers, but Dillashaw, the champion, has a big advantage in terms of striking differential. The stat, which measures significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute, takes both offensive output and defensive evasion into account. Dillashaw's striking differential in the UFC currently stands at +2.35, while Garbrandt trails at +0.46.
Both fighters are similar defensively. Dillashaw absorbs 2.91 significant strikes per minute, while Garbrandt absorbs 2.99. However, the champion is a much more prolific striker; he lands 5.26 significant strikes on a per-minute basis, compared to only 3.45 by Garbrandt.
Their first fight was a tale of two rounds. Garbrandt outlanded Dillashaw 15-9 on significant strikes in the first round, but in the second round, Dillashaw had the edge 11-3 -- and he finished the fight. Despite losing via knockout, Garbrandt forced Dillashaw to perform well below his career average in terms of offensive output, as Dillashaw landed only 2.60 significant strikes per minute. This was the first time Dillashaw had landed under four significant strikes per minute since 2013.
In order to win back the title, Garbrandt will need to once again avoid (or slow) Dillashaw's effective offensive output while avoiding power shots.
Knockdowns
In terms of power shots, both landed their fair share in the first meeting. Garbrandt landed a knockdown in the first round, while Dillashaw landed two in the second round on his way to the finish. Based on overall career performance to this point, Garbrandt should have the advantage in terms of power. He has landed at least one knockdown in all seven of his UFC fights and averages 1.91 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Dillashaw has landed only 0.56 knockdowns per 15 minutes, but he dropped Garbrandt twice in the first fight. Prior to that, Garbrandt had never been knocked down in the UFC.
Dillashaw appeared to find a strategy between rounds to land power strikes against Garbrandt, while the former champion has insisted that the result was a fluke. With the rematch, both fighters will get a chance to prove their side of the story.
Striking target
A contributing factor to Garbrandt's run of knockdowns is the fact that he lands an overwhelming majority of his strikes to his opponents' heads. During his UFC career, 81 percent of his significant strikes have landed to the head. On the other hand, Dillashaw is a much more diverse striker in terms of targets.
While he also lands a majority of his strikes to the head (67 percent), he landed 16 percent to the body and 17 percent to the legs. If the rematch goes longer than their first fight, Dillashaw's diverse striking might pay dividends. Body and leg strikes can have an effect on a fighter's movement and endurance, so if Dillashaw can land to those targets effectively, he might have an advantage in the latter stages of the five-round fight.
Striking position
Considering that both fighters have strong takedown defense (85 percent for Dillashaw and 100 percent for Garbrandt), it seems unlikely that this fight will be anything other than a standing fight. However, both fighters come from a wrestling background, and strange things happen in 25-minute fights.
If the fight goes to the ground, it will almost certainly favor Dillashaw. Ninety percent of Garbrandt's significant strikes have come at distance -- that is, standing rather than in the clinch. While Dillashaw also lands a majority of his significant strikes at distance, 17 percent of his significant strikes have come on the ground. In his UFC 207 fight against John Lineker, Dillashaw landed 46 of his 71 significant strikes on the ground. If Dillashaw is able to land a takedown, he should be able to land meaningful offense and swing the fight in his favor.