The main event at UFC 222 was supposed to see Frankie Edgar challenge UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway. Due to an injury to Holloway, the headliner is now Cris "Cyborg" Justino against UFC newcomer Yana Kunitskaya while Edgar slips into the co-main slot against Brian Ortega. The new fight for Edgar is in some ways more intriguing than the matchup against the champion.
The following is an analysis of the statistical and stylistic differences between Edgar and Ortega and how those differences could end up being the determining factors on Saturday.
Striking differential
Striking differential, which is significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute, is one of the most simple and practical statistical ways to measure effective striking. Fighters who land more strikes than their opponent will have a higher striking differential and, in theory, be more successful. However, Ortega is a major outlier. He has managed to win five-straight fights in the UFC despite having a minus-1.70 striking differential. In his six UFC fights, he has been outlanded four times. In his past two fights, he has a combined striking differential of minus-3.75.
Ortega's ability to finish fights has allowed him to get away with suboptimal striking, but his run of success might end against Edgar. The former champion has a career striking differential of 1.41, and he has only been outlanded in four of his 22 UFC bouts. If this fight goes to the judges, Edgar will have likely landed more strikes. Ortega probably knows going into this fight that he needs a finish, but that always seems to be the case for him. Edgar is an extremely durable fighter, and Ortega will only have 15 minutes. If he can't stop Edgar, he will likely be looking at his first loss in the Octagon.
Takedowns average
Edgar is at his best when he is able to control the pace, range and position of a fight. One of the tools he uses to accomplish this is his wrestling. During his UFC career, he has landed 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is not the most accurate at this, as he lands only 35 percent of his attempts. However, he makes up for that with persistence. In his 22-fight UFC career, he has only been unable to take down an opponent in five fights. Ortega has allowed his opponents to land 10 takedowns in six UFC fights. His opponents land nearly half (44 percent) of their attempts. It might not always be easy, but Edgar should be able to control where this fight takes place with his wrestling.
Ground striking
Due to his takedown prowess, Edgar has the ability to land a lot of ground strikes. In his UFC career, 28 percent of his significant strikes have come on the ground. On the other hand, Ortega does most of his striking standing up. He has only landed 15 significant ground strikes in the UFC, which accounts for only 7 percent of his significant strikes. Ortega does a good job defending on the ground, and he has not allowed a significant ground strike in three straight fights. However, he has not faced someone with a top game like Edgar. In Edgar's last fight against Yair Rodriguez, Edgar landed 69 of his 72 significant strikes on the ground while absorbing only 11. If Edgar can score takedowns, he should be able to land a fair number of strikes from the top.
Submissions
A key element of Ortega's success has been his ability to finish via submission. In his six UFC fights, he has finished four opponents with submissions (plus his victory over Mike de la Torre is now a "no contest"). During his UFC run, he has averaged 1.89 submission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time. That means that even when he is not securing submission victories, he is having an impact on the fight with his submission game. Since he will likely spend portions of this fight on the ground, Ortega will need to rely on his submission game and try to finish the fight from the bottom.