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Scouting Report: MMA trainers break down, predict Aldo-Holloway

Jose Aldo and Max Holloway will meet on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro to determine the UFC featherweight champion. Buda Mendes/Getty Images

Saturday's featherweight title unification bout between Jose Aldo and Max Holloway at UFC 212 in Rio de Janeiro will probably not go down as the highest selling pay-per-view of 2017.

But there's no question the fight has those within the industry incredibly excited.

Aldo (26-2) is the greatest featherweight of all time, who has suffered a single defeat in the past 11 years. Holloway (17-3) is an electric, confident 25-year-old challenger, riding a 10-fight win streak.

ESPN.com spoke to some of the most knowledgeable minds in the game about what to expect in this 145-pound matchup and, of course, who ends up taking the win.

John Kavanagh, SBG Ireland

I've been saying this since Conor [McGregor] fought Holloway [in 2013], that I saw him as the No. 1 featherweight. And how he has developed since then has only strengthened that in my head.

I think he will have a unanimous decision over Aldo. Aldo came up through a time when fighters were a lot more one-dimensional than they are now. Aldo's style is almost perfect against smaller guys who are grappling-based. I don't believe there is a smaller guy than Aldo in the world, who is grappling based, who could beat him. I've actually learned a hell of a lot from watching his fights and he's pretty much perfect against that kind of opponent.

Where he tends to suffer badly, is against guys who can strike. I would say an early example of that would be the very undersized Mark Hominick [in 2011] and then of course, fast forward on to him against Conor. Now, here he is again, fighting a rangy, striking-based guy who won't panic because of a few leg kicks. For that reason, it's going to be fairly -- comfortable is a stretch -- but it will be fairly unanimous for Holloway. I don't think there will be any doubt left in how it goes.

Aldo is almost perfect at defending takedowns and it's almost impossible to hold him down, but he's not much of a submission threat. Whereas Holloway is constantly attacking guillotines and off his back. I'm really fascinated with it. I wouldn't be as interested if it were Aldo fighting another shorter, grappling-based fighter because I pretty much know how those fights go. But here, he's against his nemesis. My money is on Holloway.

Prediction: Holloway by unanimous decision


Mike Brown, American Top Team

I think Aldo is the greatest featherweight ever, but I do think that Holloway, stylistically, gives him problems. He is a really good striker with a lot of length. Aldo's game is usually all kickboxing. He's got great reflexes, he's a great athlete. Great fundamental kickboxing. But he doesn't really use any grappling. I don't think Holloway has great grappling, but Aldo probably won't use it. He likes to stand. And Holloway's length could make for an interesting fight. It's not going to be easy for either guy. Conditioning could be a factor late.

I've got to go with Aldo because he's the best, but he could have problems. It's very close.

Prediction: Aldo


Duke Roufus, Roufus MMA

I prepared to fight Aldo twice with Erik Koch and Anthony Pettis, and coached against Holloway with Pettis [in December]. I don't think it's going to be the standup war everyone thinks. A lot of people don't know that Jose has won world submission tournaments at brown belt. I see him shooting in and making it a mat match, look to finish it on the ground. That's kind of Aldo's Trojan horse. I think at times, Aldo gets overlooked because he lost to Conor, but his dominance in this sport has been very strong and, no disrespect to some of the bigger weight classes, but 145 pounds is a crazy division with a lot of bad guys.

I think Aldo in Brazil is always tough to beat. Something about the energy down there. He's made some new adjustments to his game, I believe he started working with a Cuban boxing coach and I saw adjustments in his Frankie Edgar rematch [last July]. Not saying Max can't catch him, he's a hell of a fighter, but I'm going to favor Aldo.

Prediction: Aldo


Justin Buchholz, Team Alpha Male

Grappling won't be a factor, unless Aldo maybe tries to take him down. The key for Holloway is don't show too much respect to Aldo. Just because he's been one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters of all time doesn't mean you spot him a couple of points. And start that pace quick. Aldo can pace himself -- land one hard right hand or kick and move around the rest of the time and prolong a fight so his cardio doesn't get tested.

Holloway needs to get in his face and make it a fight right off the bat. Try to break him and finish him. Aldo is a tough guy to beat by decision because he can win the first three rounds, take the last two off -- you'll think you're doing great and then lose on the judges. Holloway might just take the striking, even though Aldo is great with the jab.

Nothing's right in Aldo's life, right? UFC is f---ing him. He's thinking about retiring. Meanwhile, Max is fighting with the island of Hawaii behind him. Young, hungry, ready to go. It's a tough fight. I love Aldo but I've got to go -- ah, God, I don't want to pick against Aldo -- but the youth of Holloway? I would side with him. But I wouldn't make a bet on it.

Prediction: Holloway


Duane Ludwig, Ludwig Martial Arts

The thing that sticks out to me is the length of Holloway. Aldo will do what he should do, which is attack the legs inside and out. He'll have to do that in motion, because Holloway has the long, straight punches. If Aldo doesn't set up his kicks and stands in front of Holloway, he will be in some trouble. I think Aldo is a little bit faster and maybe a bit stronger. But man, there is no quit in that Holloway kid. I'm a fan of them both.


Robert Follis, Xtreme Couture

I think that fight is mostly about momentum, and Aldo struggles with momentum. He was on fire for so long and then all of a sudden, that wind got sucked right out of his sails. He doesn't seem to be quite the same guy. Whereas you have Holloway, on a roll, confidence is ridiculously high. He's got a tough style. His range, timing, movement from the outside, ability to attack the neck on a bad shot -- if I was going to say anything, I would think Holloway wins. He wants Aldo to take bad shots and work his magic on the outside. I would think Aldo will want to press to the cage and take away that mobility. If he tries to be too powerful, too early, he better catch him with something because he'll wear out and get picked apart. Yeah, I would say Holloway.

Prediction: Holloway


Brandon Gibson, Jackson-Wink MMA

I really like what Max has been doing lately. He's really starting to put it together and I think we'll see a changing of the guard. He's good in all the areas Jose is able to dominate guys in. His pressure, speed, ability to set up the low kick, work against the fence -- they're all areas Max is equally good in. He has good defense and cage awareness. I think he's coming into his own and it's his time. He's young and will set a pace that Jose won't be able to maintain over five rounds.

Prediction: Holloway


Mike Winkeljohn, Jackson-Wink MMA

Depends if the old Aldo shows up. In range, Aldo can hurt anybody with his power. Max is a very intelligent fighter who knows how to use angles and his length real well. I think it will be a hard fight for Aldo if Max comes to the table with his full arsenal. There was almost this fearless to the old Aldo, and not saying he doesn't have that anymore, but sometimes when a fighter has success he starts to overthink things. When you first get fighters in the cage, they'll throw the kitchen sink in there because they're fearless. Later on, they want to be safe and they can be too safe. They don't take those risks that are 70-30, they only want to take the 90-10s.


Henri Hooft, Combat Club MMA

Amazing fight. A legend fighting one of the most talented kids in the world as far as striking. This is one of those fights -- new generation against older generation. Aldo looked very good in his last fight. That's the way you want to see him, in and out, good counterpunching. He needs to do that against Max, who is young and hungry. I think the will of Aldo is the most important. If he still wants it. Max is improving with every fight. I like both guys. I think Max at this point, because he's improved so much, he's younger -- I think he will be the champion for a while if he beats Aldo. I lean more toward Max, but Aldo is a legend.

Prediction: Holloway