We were all so excited about the Liverpool vs. Manchester City matchup in Matchweek 8, and it ended up being an absolute dud.
A scoreless draw, but it was even worse than that. The teams took just 13 shots combined, and only four of them were on target. Liverpool's expected goals total was a meager 0.46. Manchester City's was 1.10, but 0.77 of that came via Riyad Mahrez's missed penalty kick.
Still, this game had a big impact, fantasy-wise. Liverpool's Mohamed Salah was the top Tier 1 forward selection last week, chosen by 30.0 percent of players. And Manchester City's Sergio Aguero was right behind him, selected by 29.9 percent.
Salah at least took three shots, with one on target, but still finished with just 4.6 fantasy points. Aguero ended up not taking a single shot, was taken off in the 66th minute, and actually finished with minus-0.3 points. So, rather cruelly, those players who captained Aguero ended up with minus-0.6.
Fortunately, I didn't choose Salah or Aguero as my Tier 1 forward -- not that it would have been a terrible decision. After all, Salah scored a league-high 32 goals last season, and Aguero is still the second-leading fantasy scorer through the first eight weeks of this season with 131.6 points.
But I was surprised by how many players went with Salah or Aguero, both playing against a tough opponent, and the latter away from home.
Yes, the final score was Liverpool 4, Manchester City 3 in this same fixture last season. But Liverpool are much improved defensively, with Virgil van Dijk at center back and now Alisson in goal. Man City had the best defensive record in the league last season. And these are the top two teams defensively so far this year ... they've both now only conceded three goals in eight games.
Did I expect a scoreless draw? No. But I wasn't shocked when it came to pass.
I was actually more surprised that Tottenham only scored one goal at home against Cardiff City. That was all they needed to win, but Cardiff had conceded 16 goals in their first seven games back in the top flight.
Harry Kane was my Tier 1 forward and captain. He didn't score a goal, but he did take six shots, with two on target. That helped him end up with 11.7 fantasy points, which then doubled to 23.4.
Two other players in my 10-player league captained Kane, and four captained Aguero. The other three captained Eden Hazard in the Tier 1 midfielder spot. That certainly worked out, as Hazard finished with a goal, an assist and 32.3 points after a 3-0 victory.
Chelsea were playing away from home, but against Southampton, a team that have conceded 14 goals -- only three teams have conceded more.
The Liverpool-Manchester City result prompted me to look back at the other matchups featuring two "big six" clubs so far this season. There were five prior ones:
Arsenal 0, Manchester City 2 in Matchweek 1
Chelsea 3, Arsenal 2 in Matchweek 2
Manchester United 0, Tottenham 3 in Matchweek 3
Tottenham 1, Liverpool 2 in Matchweek 5
Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1 in Matchweek 7
As you can see, only twice did either team score more than two goals in those games.
There have been 15 goals in the six games featuring two "big six" clubs this season. It's a small sample size, but that comes out to 2.5 goals per game. There have been 210 goals scored in the other 74 games, which comes out to 2.84 per game.
I also took a look at the other games involving "big six" clubs from those matchweeks. In Matchweek 1, Chelsea played at Huddersfield Town and won 3-0, and Liverpool hosted West Ham and won 4-0.
Liverpool's Sadio Mane was the top fantasy scorer in Matchweek 1 after scoring a brace. Salah and Chelsea's Jorginho were also in the top 10, and six players from those two teams were in the top 20. The only Manchester City or Arsenal player to crack the top 20 was Benjamin Mendy, who had two assists and finished eighth.
In Matchweek 2, Manchester City hosted Huddersfield Town and won 6-1. Aguero had a hat trick, leading to him being the top fantasy scorer by nearly 13 points. Chelsea's Marcos Alonso and Arsenal's Henrikh Mkhitaryan both had a goal and an assist, and finished in the top five. But only two other players from that game finished in the top 20: Pedro (ninth) and Alex Iwobi (20th). Manchester City had three players in the top seven.
There were more attractive matchups fantasy-wise in the other matchweeks, too. Some of them played out as expected: Chelsea defeated Cardiff City 4-1 and Manchester City beat Fulham 3-0 in Matchweek 5, and Arsenal won 5-1 at Fulham in Matchweek 8. A couple others were much tighter: Liverpool beat Brighton 1-0 at home in Matchweek 3, and Tottenham -- as mentioned above -- won by the same scoreline in Matchweek 8.
But my general strategy is this: Look to exploit the matchups featuring big clubs heavily favored over smaller clubs. My Tier 1 forward and midfielder (and captain) will almost always be a player from that kind of game.
It sounds simple, but it often pays off.
This coming weekend, Chelsea vs. Manchester United is the headline game. But I doubt I'll pick any Manchester United players, given that they're playing such a tough opponent and away from home, plus their current poor form.
Hazard has been so good this season, I have to consider making an exception and picking him this week -- especially given that Manchester United have rather shockingly conceded 14 goals in eight games.
But right now I'm leaning towards choosing Raheem Sterling instead. Sterling's third overall in fantasy points, and Manchester City are hosting Burnley. Man City are, by far, the biggest favorite this weekend, and this game also has the highest over/under total. There should be a few goals in this one.
But the truth is, Hazard and Sterling are both good choices this week. Sometimes these decisions boil down to a coin flip, and then you just hope for a bit of good luck.