One of my favorite exercises each offseason is to go back to evaluate my predictions and projections from the previous year. Whether it's team record predictions, fantasy rankings or bold takes, I find it's a good way to tweak and improve "the process."
History has shown that predicting touchdown regression is significantly easier than you might imagine, especially in a sport so complicated to project. Last year's version of this article proved this yet again.
Here were the eight players featured and how things played out:
In each case, the player scored fewer touchdowns in 2016, and most came in pretty close to expected. This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply can't sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent; scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good, I have it.